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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belgium: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes productivity growth in Belgium. It highlights that Belgium’s subdued productivity growth can be explained by a combination of sectoral employment shifts, barriers to competition, the declining quality of infrastructure, and an aging workforce. The shift of employment toward lower productivity service sectors, common to many advanced economies, has been more pronounced in Belgium and explains half of the productivity gap with neighboring countries. Population aging is another secular factor that has contributed to the productivity slowdown. In addition, barriers to competition in some service sectors have lowered productivity growth and raised rents in these sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; public Investment; productivity growth; frontloaded investment boost; productivity slowdown; productivity-enhancing reform option; firms total factor productivity; Productivity; Public investment spending; Labor productivity; Total factor productivity; Infrastructure; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Tax Policy, Leverage and Macroeconomic Stability
International Monetary Fund
Risks to macroeconomic stability posed by excessive private leverage are significantly amplified by tax distortions. ‘Debt bias’ (tax provisions favoring finance by debt rather than equity) has increased leverage in both the household and corporate sectors, and is now widely recognized as a significant macroeconomic concern. This paper presents new evidence of the extent of debt bias, including estimates for banks and non-bank financial institutions both before and after the global financial crisis. It presents policy options to alleviate debt bias, and assesses their effectiveness. The paper finds that thin capitalization rules restricting interest deductibility have only partially been able to address debt bias, but that an allowance for corporate equity has generally proved effective. The paper concludes that debt bias should feature prominently in countries’ tax reform plans in the coming years.
Keywords:
PP; debt shifting; asset ratio; cost of capital; cash flow; debt vulnerability; interest deductibility; debt bias; income tax; double taxation; banking sector; Debt bias; Allowance for corporate equity; Housing prices; Corporate income tax; Stocks; Europe; Global; ACE duplication; house-price volatility; ACE system; Personal income tax
Cover IMF Working Papers
Equity Returns in the Banking Sector in the Wake of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
,
Miss Estelle X Liu
, and
Jochen M. Schmittmann
This study finds that equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European sovereign debt crisis have been driven mainly by weak growth prospects and heightened sovereign risk and to a lesser extent, by deteriorating funding conditions and investor sentiment. While the equity return performance in the banking sector has been dismal in general, better capitalized and less leveraged banks have outperformed their peers, a finding that supports policymakers’ efforts to strengthen bank capitalization.
Keywords:
WP; bank; equity; capital ratio; funding; Tier 1; Banks; equity returns; financial crisis; sovereign risk; sovereign debt crisis; economic growth; regulatory capital; panel data econometrics; banking sector; equity price; return performance; equity return; investor base; Tier 1 capital ratio; CDS spread; bank CDS premia; Stocks; Capital adequacy requirements; Yield curve; Commercial banks; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Tax Biases to Debt Finance: Assessing the Problem, Finding Solutions
Ruud A. de Mooij
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Keywords:
SDN; CIT rate; debt issuance; income tax; cost of capital; debt-equity choice; intracompany debt; debt holder; debt-asset ratio; debt level; pre-existing debt; Debt bias; Corporate income tax; Allowance for corporate equity; Comprehensive business income tax; Stocks; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Allowances for Corporate Equity in Practice
Mr. Alexander D Klemm
This paper provides an overview of full and partial allowance for corporate equity (ACE) tax systems in practice. In the recent past, ACE systems have been used in Austria, Croatia, and Italy. Brazil still applies a variant of such a system and Belgium introduced one this year. This paper summarizes the empirical literature on past ACE systems, and provides a theoretical and empirical assessment of the Brazilian ACE variant. The main finding is that the Brazilian reform introduced an ACE system for a minority of firms only, with the majority instead having a system of dividend deductibility. Despite the reduction in the tax preference for debt finance, capital structures have not changed much, but dividends have increased. Investment appears to have benefited from the reform, although the extent to which this was due to the new structure rather than the tax cut is unclear.
Keywords:
WP; ACE system; dividend deductibility; cost of capital; equity finance; ACE tax; ACE variant
Cover IMF Working Papers
Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns
Mr. Luis Catão
and
Mr. Allan Timmermann
A perennial question in international finance is to what extent stock returns are influenced by country-location, as opposed to industry-affiliation, factors. This paper develops a novel methodology to measure these effects, in which portfolios mimicking "pure" country and industry factors are first constructed and their joint dynamics then modeled as regime-switching processes. Estimation using global firm-level data allows us to identify well-defined volatility states over the past thirty years and shows that the contribution of the industry factor becomes systematically more prominent during high global volatility states, while the country factor contribution declines. Using the model's estimates, we find that portfolio diversification possibilities vary considerably across economic states.
Keywords:
WP; industry portfolio; country portfolio; volatility State; Diversification; Risk; Volatility States; Regime Switching; International Financial Markets; country effect; industry factor; industry state process; Stocks; Market capitalization; Stock markets; Public expenditure review; Time series analysis; Global; Europe
Cover Balance of Payments Compilation Guide
Balance of Payments Compilation Guide
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. the Guide is designed to assist balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionnaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.

Keywords:
BOOK; BOP compiler; BOP.; goods; enterprise; BOP transaction
Cover IMF Working Papers
Signaling Fiscal Regime Sustainability
Mr. Alessandro Prati
and
Francesco Drudi
This paper proposes a signaling model that offers a new perspective on why governments deviate from optimal tax smoothing and delay debt stabilization. In our model, dependable—but not fully credible—governments have an incentive to tighten the fiscal regime when the signaling effect on credit ratings is larger (that is, when a sufficiently large stock of debt has been accumulated). At this point, they may deviate from tax smoothing not to be mimicked by weak governments. The model predicts that primary balances and debt stocks are complementary inputs in the credit rating function as tests on Italian, Irish, Belgian, and Danish data show.
Keywords:
WP; debt stock; monetary policy; mover accent; signaling; fiscal stabilization; tax smoothing; debt sustainability; credit ratings; debt financing cost; debt level; debt maturing; rating function; debt accumulation; stock of debt; Fiscal stance; Stocks; Global; equilibrium existence; signaling model; Balance-to-GDP ratio; pooling equilibrium
Cover Balance of Payments Compilation Guide
Balance of Payments Compilation Guide
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. The Guide is designed to assist experienced and aspiring balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.

Keywords:
BOOK; BOP compiler; BOP.; goods; enterprise; BOP transaction
Cover Balance of Payments Compilation Guide
Balance of Payments Compilation Guide
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. The Guide is designed to assist experienced and aspiring balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.

Keywords:
BOOK; BOP compiler; BOP.; goods; enterprise; BOP transaction