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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance report on Suriname highlights proceedings of the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) mission. The authorities have partially followed the recommendations from previous mission that took place in April 2022. While there has been significant progress in below-the-line data, little progress has been made in above-the-line data. Compilers from the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Suriname have compiled a financial balance sheet of the Central Government (CG) to assure the integration of flows with the stocks of financial assets and liabilities. In addition, they perform regular consistency checks of data on the CG deposits and loans with the recordings in the banking system. No developments have been achieved regarding the institutional sector coverage and little progress has been done regarding the above-the-line data compilation. One of the main issues that hamper GFS data quality is that no comprehensive data on the government revenues and expenditure exist in Suriname. The mission provided an extended hands-on training for the main GFS team compiling above-the-line transactions.
Can Sever
and
Athene Laws
This paper aims to provide a broad perspective on the WAEMU fiscal framework. Based on backward looking exercises and forward looking scenarios, it shows that (i) repeated fiscal slippages and historically large stock flow adjustments contributed to the surge in the WAEMU public debt, and (ii) stock flow adjustments can have significant effects on the WAEMU debt dynamics going forward. This paper also discusses that it is essential and urgent to reintroduce the fiscal rules and the Convergence Pact and to enhance the rules. Revamping the fiscal rules should focus on introducing a correction mechanism (which could contain surges in debt in the future) and an escape clause (which would enhance fiscal discipline and predictability), as well as capturing the extensive extra-budgetary and below-the-line operations and strengthening the enforcement mechanism. Any consideration to changing the fiscal deficit target should also encompass addressing extra-budgetary and below-the-line transactions (for example by changing the definition of the deficit). It is not appropriate to increase the debt ceiling.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The remote technical assistance (TA) mission provided guidance to the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BelStat) on the preliminary estimates of the Financial Accounts and Balance Sheets (FABS) for 2017. The TA mission assisted with compiling the revaluation and the other changes in volume accounts to give better consistency to the financial flows and stocks and improve the reconciliation process of the FABS. BelStat is in charge of compiling the current accounts for all the institutional sectors and is starting to compile the financial accounts for which important progress has been made. To regularly compile FABS, the mission recommended that BelStat addresses the discrepancies between the net lending/borrowing from the capital and the financial account by incorporating more data sources such as government’s financial stocks and business accounting data. The TA mission also provided guidance on compiling the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) to get a more consistent estimate. The mission highlighted the progress made and encouraged BelStat to continue working on compiling FABS for 2017 and onwards.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The remote technical assistance (TA) mission provided guidance to the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BelStat) on the preliminary estimates of the Financial Accounts and Balance Sheets (FABS) for 2017. The TA mission assisted with compiling the revaluation and the other changes in volume accounts to give better consistency to the financial flows and stocks and improve the reconciliation process of the FABS. BelStat is in charge of compiling the current accounts for all the institutional sectors and is starting to compile the financial accounts for which important progress has been made. To regularly compile FABS, the mission recommended that BelStat addresses the discrepancies between the net lending/borrowing from the capital and the financial account by incorporating more data sources such as government’s financial stocks and business accounting data. The TA mission also provided guidance on compiling the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) to get a more consistent estimate. The mission highlighted the progress made and encouraged BelStat to continue working on compiling FABS for 2017 and onwards.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the Suriname authorities, a remote technical assistance (TA) mission took place during December 6–17, 2021. The mission was conducted in coordination with the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department. The main objective of the mission was to assist the Ministry of Finance and Planning (MFP) and the Central Bank of Suriname (CBS) to improve the quality of the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) in view of the IMF program. The main tasks were to (i) conduct a diagnostic assessment of the current GFS and public debt compilation process,(ii) explain and reduce statistical discrepancies, (iii) analyze data on arrears and reassess their treatment in GFS, (iv) review the integration of stocks and flows of the gross debt; and (v) update the public sector institutional table, and (vi) deliver a workshop on GFSM 2014 framework and (PSDS).
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on Government Finance Statistics (GFS) and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) visited the city of Praia, Republic of Cabo Verde, from July 22 to August 2, 2019, with the aim of putting more and better-quality fiscal data —particularly on PSDS — in the hands of public decision makers. The mission was funded by the Data for Decisions (D4D) fund under module 1 on fiscal data including debt.
Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and in consultation with the Africa Department (AFR) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a remote Government Finance Statistics (GFS) mission from the Statistics Department (STA) took place in Madagascar from October 26 to November 13, 2020. The objective of this mission was to continue supporting the authorities in their project to adopt international GFS standards based on the methodology of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG) and to improve GFS in general.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Hong Kong SAR has, over the recent years, become an equity trading hub catering to domestic and foreign investors, including increasingly to investors from Mainland China. Most trading is conducted on markets operated by recognized exchange companies, with limited domestic trading happening via automated trading services (ATS) providers in the form of alternative liquidity pools. The introduction of Stock Connect in 2014 enabled investors from Hong Kong (including domestic and foreign) to directly invest in the Shanghai and later Shenzhen markets and investors from the Mainland to directly access the Hong Kong market. Trading via Stock Connect has seen a steady rise over the last few years, increasing the linkages between Hong Kong SAR and the Mainland. Mainland companies currently account for over 60 per cent of market capitalization of the equities traded on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK).
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) mission on Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) was conducted during October 19-30, 2020. The main purpose of the mission was to review the progress made by the authorities in implementing previous TA recommendations and provide further support to strengthen the compilation and dissemination of GFS in line with international standards set out in the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014).