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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 16 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Fiscal policy x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Estimating Fiscal Multiplier for Qatar: Qatar
Ken Miyajima
Econometric results suggest that Qatar’s strong capital spending multiplier became less impactful as the stock of capital rose to a high level, likely as the marginal impact declined. This supports Qatar’s strategy to shifts the State’s role to an enabler of private sector-led growth, focusing on expenditure to support build human capital and implementation of broader reform guided by the Third National Development Strategy.
Keywords:
Capital spending; fiscal multiplier; GCC; Qatar; strategy to shift; Qatar's strategy; copyright page; Qatar country dummy; allocation decision; Fiscal multipliers; Current spending; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States
Edouard Martin
and
Felix J Vardy
This paper examines the macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries from 2009 to 2022, focusing on how macroeconomic targets and their achievement differ between fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS. Key findings include similar program targets for FCS and non-FCS, optimism in all dimensions considered other than inflation, and no significant correlation between targets and outcomes. For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes. This underscores the challenges in setting realistic, country and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries. Finally, we discuss potential caveats, including GDP rebenchmarking, non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets, and repeat programs. We do not study, and make no claims about, causality.
Keywords:
IMF Programs; LICs; Fragility; Tailoring; Optimism; appendix H. country classification; fragile and conflicted-affected states; histogram of program approval; growth optimism; IMF country team; FCS classification; Pb XOXG; FCS program; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Wages; Debt reduction; Stocks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Revamping the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) Fiscal Framework
Can Sever
and
Athene Laws
This paper aims to provide a broad perspective on the WAEMU fiscal framework. Based on backward looking exercises and forward looking scenarios, it shows that (i) repeated fiscal slippages and historically large stock flow adjustments contributed to the surge in the WAEMU public debt, and (ii) stock flow adjustments can have significant effects on the WAEMU debt dynamics going forward. This paper also discusses that it is essential and urgent to reintroduce the fiscal rules and the Convergence Pact and to enhance the rules. Revamping the fiscal rules should focus on introducing a correction mechanism (which could contain surges in debt in the future) and an escape clause (which would enhance fiscal discipline and predictability), as well as capturing the extensive extra-budgetary and below-the-line operations and strengthening the enforcement mechanism. Any consideration to changing the fiscal deficit target should also encompass addressing extra-budgetary and below-the-line transactions (for example by changing the definition of the deficit). It is not appropriate to increase the debt ceiling.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; fiscal rules; fiscal governance; PFM; fiscal coordination; monetary unions; WAEMU; stock flow adjustments; flow adjustment; debt dynamics scenario; deficit target; scenario assumption; deficit measure; deficit combination; so called SFA; Government debt management; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt limits; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
and
Ling Zhu
We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece—the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)—is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these goals need to be more prudent and better anchored than the PIH. Second, we point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the appropriate fiscal anchors, the vice of procyclicality, and the (im)possibility of simultaneously smoothing consumption and ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability. Finally, we propose what we call a prudent wealth stabilization policy that would be more consistent with long-term fiscal policy goals, yet relatively simple to implement and communicate.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; physical capital; government spending; Fiscal policy; oil exporters; permanent income hypothesis; fiscal rules; wealth stabilization; target path; oil price shock; spending policy; PIH expenditure benchmark; oil wealth; wealth target; subsoil wealth; level of wealth; PIH Policy; wealth dynamics; targeted wealth; Consumption; Oil prices; Stocks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?
Mr. Sergio Sola
and
Mr. Geremia Palomba
This paper examines the determinants of sub-national governments risk premia using secondary market data for U.S., Canada, Australia and Germany. It finds that, as for central governments, fiscal fundamentals matter in the pricing of risk premia, and sub-national governments with higher public debt and larger deficits pay higher premia. However, this relationship is not uniform across countries. Market pricing mechanisms are less effective in presence of explicit or implicit guarantees from the central government. Specifically, we show that in pricing risk premia of sub-national governments, markets are less responsive to fiscal fundamental when sub-national governments depend on high transfers from the central government, i.e., when there is some form of implicit guarantee from the center. Using primary market data, the paper also looks at whether transfer dependency from the central government influences sub-national governments’ incentive to access markets. We show that high transfer dependency lowers the probability of sub-national governments to borrow on capital markets.
Keywords:
WP; GDP ratio; primary market; risk premia; GDP growth; secondary market; Sub-national governments; fiscal policy; interest rates; government debt; markets price sub-national governments; dispersed SNG spread; transfer dependency; SNGS issue debt; yield to maturity; Bonds; Fiscal federalism; Sovereign bonds; Fiscal stance; Liquidity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Republic of Tanzania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the potential fiscal impact of a large-scale gas project and explores aspects of macro-fiscal management of the associated revenue flow. The chapter also provides background and context focusing on recent offshore natural gas discoveries. The paper also describes features of the current petroleum fiscal regime in Tanzania and will present tentative simulations of the fiscal impact of a potential gas project. A string of natural gas discoveries in Tanzania’s deep offshore waters have generated considerable expectations. The outlook for natural gas in Tanzania is positive, albeit still highly uncertain. If major revenues are obtained and put to fruitful use, they could have a transformational impact on the economy. At the same time, expectations need to be tempered by the remaining uncertainty about the eventual size of the gas resources; no company has yet made a final investment decision involving the deep offshore gas reserves. This uncertainty will hopefully diminish in the next few years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; revenue; equity; cost; expenditure; Tanzania; gas revenue; revenue flow; aggregate revenue impact; revenue collection; LNG project; Natural gas sector; Production sharing; Stocks; Income and capital gains taxes; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Spillover Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation and Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Japan’s position is one of the largest and richest economies in the world. Tokyo as a financial marketplace is not a major intermediator of global capital flows. The current macroeconomic environment is conducive to spillovers being larger than captured by the empirical analysis. Apart from heading off tail risks, fiscal consolidation in Japan would have medium to long-term benefits for its partner countries. Exchange rate-related spillovers on foreign financial markets are found to be small and depend partly on policy developments abroad.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Japan; interest rate; carry trade; exchange rate; financial market; trade surplus; banking system; real GDP; spillover issue; Exports; Fiscal consolidation; Spillovers; Stocks; Yield curve; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) review the macroeconomic impact of the resource sector. Lao PDR’s economic performance is becoming increasingly dependent on the activities of the large mining and hydropower projects. The economic value of the resource projects is significant, even if only proven mineral reserves and hydropower plants are considered. The overall macroeconomic impact of the resource sector over the medium term will depend on the quality and timeliness of the policies adopted to sustain the growth of the non-resource sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; revenue; resource; resource revenue; equity; bullet; export; market opportunity; resource surplus; resource curse; Lao P.D.R. authorities; import growth; hydro resource potential; sector deficit; resource bonanza; IMF commodity price system; resource project; revenue spending; hydro resource endowment; hydropower resource; Mining sector; Non-renewable resources; Stocks; Commodity prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Given its small size and openness, the Icelandic economy has been subject to large shocks. Systematic coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, however, could help improve the inflation-output variability trade-off. The fiscal rule is designed to simultaneously ensure a consistently countercyclical fiscal stance and achieve a stable public debt target. The parameter values of the model are estimated from the quarterly data using a Bayesian technique. To assess how the introduction of the fiscal policy changes the inflation-output variability trade-off in Iceland, the paper compares the efficiency policy frontiers.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; reaction function; inflation-output variability trade-off; countercyclical fiscal policy; output-inflation variability tradeoff; Icelandic bank; Credit risk; Stocks; Loans; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the trade-offs in Switzerland, focusing on challenges for fiscal policy coordination. It reviews the benefits and costs of a highly decentralized government, describes the Swiss institutional architecture, and analyzes Switzerland’s fiscal performance. It also discusses the specific policy challenges related to population aging, reviews the Swiss National Bank works on government financial assets and liabilities, describes the Swiss, Dutch, and the U.K. pension systems, respectively, on the regulation and supervision of the occupational pension pillar, recent reforms, and policy implications.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; balance sheet; public sector balance sheet; balance sheet data; government; proceeds; General government financial assets; government level; output gap; funding ratio; equity holding; General government expenditure; public goods; Pension spending; Pensions; Fiscal stance; Global; Baltics