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Business and Economics > Investments: Stocks

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Measurement and Use of Cash by Half the World’s Population
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
The use of cash for payments is not well measured. We view the value of cash withdrawn from ATMs, or as a share of all payments, as a more accurate and timely measure of cash use compared to the standard measure of currency in circulation, or as a ratio to GDP. These two measures are compared for 14 advanced and emerging market economies. When aggregated, the trend in cash use for payments is currently falling for half the world’s population. Such a measure can help inform policy decisions regarding CBDC and regulatory decisions concerning access to and use of cash.
Keywords:
Cash; payments; access to cash; central bank digital currency; cash use; ATM cash; aggregate Currency value; value of cash; use of cash; Currencies; Monetary base; Purchasing power parity; Stocks; Payment systems
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Effects of Dividend Taxation with Investment Credit Limits
Matteo Ghilardi
and
Roy Zilberman
We analyze the effects of dividend taxation in a general equilibrium business cycle model with an occasionally-binding investment credit limit. Permanent dividend tax reforms distort capital investment decisions in the binding long-run equilibrium, but are neutral otherwise. Temporary unexpected tax cuts stimulate shortterm real activity in the credit-constrained economy, yet produce contractionary macroeconomic outcomes in the slack regime. The occasionally-binding constraint reconciles the `traditional' and `new' views of dividend taxation, and highlights the importance of measuring the firm's initial borrowing position before enacting tax reforms. Finally, permanently lower dividend taxes dampen financial business cycles, and help to explain macroeconomic asymmetries.
Keywords:
Dividend Taxation; Occasionally-Binding Borrowing Constraints; Investment; Business Cycles.; borrowing position; tax relief; dividend distribution; dividend tax rate; dividend tax adjustment; tax environment; benchmark system; dividend tax shock; dividend tax cut; tax adjustment; dividend tax system; Dividend tax; Credit; Corporate income tax; Collateral; Stocks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pictures of a Revolution: Analyzing the Transition from Global Bimetallism to the Gold Standard in the 1860s and 1870s
Mr. Johannes Wiegand
In the early 1870s, the global monetary system transitioned from bimetallism—a regime in which gold and silver currencies were tied at quasi-fixed exhange ratios—to the gold standard that was characterized by the use of (only) gold as the main currency metal by the largest and most advanced economies. The transition ocurred against the backdrop of both large supply shifts in global bullion markets in the 1850s and 60s and momentous political events, such as the Franco-Prussian war of 1870/71 and the subsequent foundation of the German empire. The causes for the transition have long been a matter of intense debate. This article discusses three separate but interrelated issues: (i) assessing the robustness of the pre-1870 bimetallic system to shocks—which includes a discussion of the appropriate use of Flandreau’s (1996) reference model; (ii) analyzing the transition from bimetallism to gold as a multi-stage currency game played by France and Germany; and (iii) evaluating the monetary debates at the German Handelstag conferences in the 1860s, to present a more complete narrative of the German discussion in the run-up to the transition.
Keywords:
Bimetallism; Gold Standard; France; Germany; Gold share; Bimetallism's robustness; estimating specie demand; structural limit; share of silver coin; Gold; Silver; Currencies; Currency reform; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Stress Testing U.S. Leveraged Corporates in a COVID-19 World
Carlos Caceres
,
Dan Pan
, and
Suchanan Tambunlertchai
This paper analyzes a group of 755 firms, with aggregate indebtedness of US$6.2 trillion, to assess the solvency risks and liquidity needs facing the U.S. corporate sector based on projections of net income, availability and cost of funding, and debt servicing flows under different stress test scenarios. The paper finds that leveraged corporates account for most of the potential losses arising from the macroeconomic stresses associated with the COVID-19 crisis, with a concentration of these losses in the oil and gas, auto, and capital and durable goods manufacturing sectors. However, potential losses from corporate debt write-downs appear to be a fraction of banks’ capital buffers and, given the size of the leveraged segment and the relatively long duration of that sector’s debt, the near-term liquidity needs of these corporates appear modest. Corporate stresses could, however, amplify the current economic downturn—as firms cut investment spending and reduce employment—potentially giving rise to significant indirect losses for the financial system.
Keywords:
corporate; firm value; leverage; solvency; liquidity.; WP; cash inflow; equity position metrics; liquidity need; need Lt; net equity position; stress testing; liquidity; leverage ratio; revenue flow; revenue-to-assets ratio; rollover needs; amortization profile; maturing bond debt; maturing debt; Stocks; Corporate sector; Currencies; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sectoral Accounts Mission (November 11-22, 2019)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities of the Republic of Belarus in response to their request for technical assistance. The principal purposes of the mission were to review with the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (Belstat) current data sources; identify data sources that needed to be improved; demonstrate how to construct the tables; and prepare a work plan. The mission noted a few instances where the data could be improved through the provision of more detail or verification that the classification had been done correctly. The mission worked with Belstat staff to show how the currently available data sources should be used to compile sector balance sheets and how to use these data to construct the sector financial accounts. The mission recommended that Belstat prepare the financial balance sheets (FABS) for 2017 using the data presently available. The mission recommended that Belstat staff be encouraged to apply for courses on the FABS, such as those offered by the IMF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Belstat; Belstat staff; accounts receivable; Belstat request; financial balance sheet; balance sheet data; retained earnings; asset holding; Financial statements; Stocks; External sector statistics; Currencies; Government finance statistics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digitalization to Improve Tax Compliance: Evidence from VAT e-Invoicing in Peru
Mr. Matthieu Bellon
,
Jillie Chang
,
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Salma Khalid
,
Frederico Lima
,
Enrique Rojas
, and
Pilar Villena
This paper examines the impact of e-invoicing on firm tax compliance and performance using administrative tax data and quasi-experimental variation in the rollout of VAT electronic invoicing in Peru. We find that e-invoicing increases reported firm sales, purchases and value-added by over 5 percent in the first year after adoption. The impact is concentrated among smaller firms and sectors with higher rates of non-compliance, suggesting that e-invoicing enhances compliance by lowering compliance costs and strengthening deterrence. The reform’s positive effects on tax collection are hindered by shortcomings in the VAT refund mechanism in Peru, suggesting that digital tools such as e-invoicing should be complemented by other reforms to improve revenue mobilization.
Keywords:
WP; firm; VAT; authority; electronic invoicing; tax compliance; digitalization; VAT collection; firm size interaction term; VAT liability; VAT credit; construction firm; VAT payment; Value-added tax; Credit; Tax administration core functions; Tax return filing compliance; Stocks; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks
Ms. Yu Shi
,
Robert M. Townsend
, and
Wu Zhu
Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can propagate corporate shareholders’ credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries investment by 1% of their tangible fixed asset value, which accounts for 71% (7%) of the median (average) investment rate among these firms. We argue that equity exchanges is one channel through which corporate shareholders transmit bank credit supply shocks to the subsidiaries and provide empirical evidence to support the channel.
Keywords:
WP; subsidiary firm; trade credit; bank financing condition; profit margin; Internal capital markets; business groups; bank lending; China; credit supply shocks; business group; Credit; Supply shocks; Bank credit; Stocks; Asset valuation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
France: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on various aspects of corporate debt in France. The increase in debt has financed real investments, as well as acquisition of financial assets and extension of intercompany loans. The increase in debt (and its level) appears less worrisome when debt is consolidated among nonfinancial corporations. Despite the increase in the stock of debt, debt service has increased moderately. A cross-country regression analysis reveals that French publicly listed firms are on average not more indebted and have not increased their debt more than peers in other countries, after controlling for firm and sector characteristics as well as common time effects. However, the increase in debt is concentrated among large firms with sizeable leverage in a few industries, raising questions about these firms’ ability to service this debt when interest rates rise. Stress test scenarios of a large and sudden increase in interest rates suggest that corporate debt at risk could be significant at a macroeconomic level, but that cash buffers would mitigate the impact of the shock on debt service.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; government; debt stock; training; firm level; railway company; macron government; utility company; state innovation; government plan; Bonds; Stocks; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of U.S. Business Investment
Emanuel Kopp
U.S. business investment has taken a serious toll during the global financial crisis and also in the recovery phase investment did not pick up as expected. What is surprising is that the alleged investment slowdown happened at a time of record corporate profits and retained earnings, highly supportive financial conditions, improved sentiment, rising equity valuations, and strong labor markets—factors established in supporting business investment. Applying accelerator models and Bayesian Model Averaging, this paper discusses the extent to which U.S. business investment has been unusual. Results suggest that cautious expectations of future aggregate demand growth explain most of the weakness in investment, and that the oil and gas sector accounts for a considerable portion of the investment slump. Consequently, the behavior of U.S. business investment in recent years has not been unusual once these factors are taken into account. Also, there is very little evidence for uncertainty holding back investment, or that firms’ financial measures "crowded out" capital expenditure.
Keywords:
WP; business investment; firm; investment growth; private fixed investment; accelerator models; Bayesian Model Averaging; investment gap; growth outcome; accelerator model; investment activity; equipment investment; consumption deflator; Private investment; Oil prices; Stocks; Bank credit; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Alan Xiaochen Feng
, and
Nico Valckx
We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950–2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt heighten the probability of future banking crises, which significantly disrupts financial intermediation. Third, crash risk may be systematically neglected due to investors’ overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In addition, several institutional factors such as flexible exchange rates, higher financial development and inclusion are found to mitigate this impact. Finally, the tradeoff between financial inclusion and stability nuances downside risks to growth.
Keywords:
WP; debt ratio; Household debt; financial crises; neglected crash risk; leverage; macro-financial stability; standard deviation; bank stock; negative correlation; subprime crisis; financial leverage; Exchange rate arrangements; Stocks; Consumption; Commercial banks; Consumer credit; Global