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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This note presents the systemic risk analysis conducted for the Republic of Korea in the course of the 2019 Korea FSAP. It comprises a forward-looking solvency analysis for banks, insurers, and pension funds, a liquidity stress test for banks, and an assessment of network and interconnectedness for a wide range of financial sector entities and their ties to the real economy. Various structural characteristics of Korea’s economy and its financial system informed the features and focus for its forward-looking risk analysis. They include Korea’s strong export orientation, limited diversification, and its key role as a node in regional and international supply chains. Korea’s financial system has grown by 40 percentage points of GDP since 2013, enhancing the importance of a deep financial sector analysis as conducted through the FSAP. Mortgage insurance schemes are widely used—which was reflected in the way the risk assessment for banks was conducted. Korea’s life and non-life insurance sector is large, highly concentrated and saturated. Fintech developments keep accelerating, in terms of its Open Banking system and e-money providers. Demographic developments in Korea are among the most adverse world-wide, implying a continuous drag on demand, downward pressure on interest rates, financial firms’ income, and hence their capitalization unless they will be altering their business models.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) with the Republic of Korea. The Korean authorities have continued their efforts at upgrading the prudential, legal, and supervisory framework for the financial sector, and keeping up with international standards and practices in other G20 jurisdictions. The authorities have been strengthening the system with micro and macroprudential measures against vulnerabilities, strengthening the crisis management framework, and upgrading the prudential and legal framework. The FSSA suggests moving toward a more forward-looking monitoring and systemic risk identification mechanism. The reliability of various stress tests could be augmented with advanced methods, system-wide monitoring, and testing the overall leverage related to residential properties, households’ resilience to adverse shocks, and sovereign contingent liabilities. Stronger focus is required on systemic risks emanating from securities market activities that can amplify contagion, including sudden redemption and liquidity pressures in the funds and asset management industry.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note presents risk analysis of banking and insurance sector in France. The assessment is based on stress tests, which simulate the health of banks, insurers under severe yet plausible (counterfactual) adverse scenarios. The stress tests reveal that banks and insurers would be resilient against simulated shocks, although some challenges remain. French banks have improved their capitalization and asset quality; however, profitability remains challenged. The report also highlights that profitability is pressured on both the income and expense sides. Banks’ ability to generate higher interest income is constrained by persistently low interest rates, and market businesses including trading activities have contracted in recent years. Growth-at-risk (GaR) analysis shows that the biggest contributing factors to the risk of growth are cost of funding and stock market prices. Financial conditions continue to tighten gradually since mid-2017; though the overall conditions remain accommodative. Risks stemming from loans to households seem to be contained over the short- to medium-term horizon, given relatively strong households’ balance sheets, no evidence of significant misalignment in house prices, social safety nets, and fixed interest rates.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on France provides summary of an assessment of the financial system. Dominated by internationally active financial conglomerates, the French financial system has made important progress since the last financial stability assessment program (FSAP). In order to address a build-up of systemic risks, the authorities have proactively used macroprudential measures and public communication. The government is pursuing a strategy to prepare Paris as a key financial hub, including by promoting crypto-assets, fintech, green finance, and market entry. Banking and insurance business lines, and the corporate sector, carry important financial vulnerabilities that need close attention. The FSAP thus has recommended augmenting policy tools to contain vulnerabilities and continue to act pre-emptively if systemic risks intensify. In order to mitigate intensification of corporate—and potentially household—vulnerabilities, the FSAP proposed: active engagement with the European Central Bank on the possible use of bank-specific measures; considering fiscal measures to incentivize corporates to finance through equity rather than debt; and a sectoral systemic risk buffer.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The macroeconomic environment has improved, reflecting the authorities’ efforts, supported by an IMF arrangement. Previously, years of high fiscal deficits, public enterprise borrowing, and financial sector bailouts led to rapid government debt accumulation, crowded out private credit, increased financial dollarization, and stifled economic growth. Fiscal discipline has been essential to reduce public debt (to about 100 percent of GDP). With government debt accounting for a sizable share of financial institutions’ assets, falling interest rates on government debt are leading to a search for yield. Also, entrenched structural obstacles, including high crime, bureaucratic processes, insufficient labor force skills, and poor access to finance still constrain economic growth. The authorities have made good progress in implementing the 2006 FSAP recommendations. Work on the regulatory framework has significantly advanced in several areas such as securities dealers’ activities, powers to the Bank of Jamaica (BoJ), payment systems, and the introduction of the centralized securities depository. However, the crisis management framework and risk-based supervision work has been lagging.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The insurance sector has significant potential for expansion and to contribute to economic growth as an important part of the financial sector. While the insurance sector has grown at 10 percent annually over the last 5 years, on average, and remains profitable with high solvency ratios, the insurance penetration and density are lower than other emerging markets. Nevertheless, the insurance industry has the potential to reach to much higher levels of insurance penetration. A few large conglomerate groups—composed of banks, insurers and investments funds—dominate the insurance sector. Conglomerate groups account for more than 75 percent of the market share. Reflecting very conservative regulations imposed by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) and the Superintendency of Private Insurance (SUSEP), the interlinkages between banks and insurers are limited. Nevertheless, material contagion may occur through a reputational channel, adversely impacting the profitability of the linked business.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
While national authorities are still largely responsible for supervising the nonbank sector and applying the macroprudential framework, European Union (EU)-level organizations’ supervisory role is growing. Further convergence and strengthening of supervision of insurers and investment firms is consistent with the goals of an EU single market and financial stability. The macroprudential framework functions well but could be simplified and expanded to cover aspects of the nonbank sector.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note analyzes the key aspects of the regulatory and supervisory regime of banks, insurance companies and financial conglomerates (FCs) in Belgium. The regulatory framework for Belgian financial institutions has been strengthened substantially since the 2013 Financial Sector Assessment Program. Notably, new national banking and insurance laws have been issued, the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive and amendments to Financial Conglomerate Directive have been transposed, Solvency II has been implemented, and the National Bank of Belgium has been designated as the macroprudential authority. This has improved significantly the regulatory framework and broadened its scope to better address the challenges posed by FCs. Financial sector supervision has also been upgraded markedly.
Mr. Divya Kirti
Rather than taking on more risk, US insurers hit hard by the crisis pulled back from risk taking, relative to insurers not hit as hard by the crisis. Capital requirements alone do not explain this risk reduction: insurers hit hard reduced risk within assets with identical regulatory treatment. State level US insurance regulation makes it unlikely this risk reduction was driven by moral suasion. Other financial institutions also reduce risk after large shocks: the same approach applied to banks yields similar results. My results suggest that, at least in some circumstances, franchise value can dominate, making gambling for resurrection too risky.