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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses the results of the Financial System Stability Assessment on the United States made under the Financial Sector Assessment Program. It is found that welcome steps have been taken in strengthening the financial system. The Financial Stability Oversight Council now provides a useful forum for coordination, the regulatory perimeter has expanded, information sharing among agencies has improved, supervisory stress testing is leading changes in risk measurement and management, and new resolution powers have been established. However, new pockets of vulnerabilities have emerged, partly in response to the continuing search for yield. This requires a continuing focus on strengthening the micro and macroprudential framework.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment on France discusses the French financial system and the restructuring of French banks to different business models. The French banking system weathered the 2007–09 global financial crisis well. The large French banks have announced plans to meet Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital targets during 2013, and have divested noncore assets. The banks are increasing their liquidity and reducing their dependence on short-term and U.S. dollar wholesale funding. IMF staff recommends timely feedback and strengthened follow-up mechanisms in the supervisory process.
International Monetary Fund
Though The United States has experienced a devastating financial crisis owing to multifaceted factors, it started showing recovery. The authorities welcomed the program, which included strengthening microprudential regulation, establishing macroprudential responsibilities, strengthening market discipline, and reforming credit policies. They emphasized the need to establish a council of regulatory agencies such as the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, with a mandate for financial stability. They stressed the need to enhance crisis management, resolution, and systemic liquidity arrangements, and also to address too-big-to-fail issues and the future of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs).
International Monetary Fund
This Technical Note analyzes the insurance sector in Serbia. The Serbian insurance sector remains small and underdeveloped. Over the last three years, the market experienced little growth in real terms mainly owing to weak economic growth, fierce price competition among the growing number of players, and premium payment difficulties in the industrial sector, which forced many corporate policyholders to cancel their insurance. The paper highlights that the Serbian insurance sector is well capitalized relative to its overall net risk exposure.
International Monetary Fund
The following is the provisional agenda for the Twenty-First Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, which is to be convened at the Fund’s Headquarters in Washington, D.C. on Saturday, April 24, 2010. A joint working dinner of IMFC members and G-20 ministers will be held on Friday, April 23 at 7:30 p.m. in HQ1–Meeting Halls A & B. The IMFC meeting will be followed by the press conference of the IMFC Chairman and the Managing Director at 2:30 p.m.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the Financial System Stability Assessment Update on the Philippines. The assessment reveals that the banking sector has been strengthened considerably since the Asian crisis of the late 1990s and today appears generally resilient to a broad range of macroeconomic risks. The impact of the ongoing global crisis has been milder than originally feared, and the macroeconomic outlook is improving, although risks remain elevated in the near term. Considerable progress has been made toward implementing the recommendations of the initial Financial Sector Assessment Program, particularly in banking supervision.
International Monetary Fund
Switzerland is affected by the global crisis through the stock effect, the flow effect, and the trade effect. Along with a sharp contraction in exports, investments are now being postponed. Consumption has held up well so far, but as unemployment rises, household spending will lose momentum. The Swiss National Bank has appropriately loosened monetary policy, bringing the policy rates almost to zero. Maintaining financial stability will be essential for ensuring macroeconomic stability and growth in Switzerland.
Mr. Christopher W. Crowe
The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses the Financial System Stability Assessment for South Africa, and reviews the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Securities Regulation. The assessment reveals that South Africa’s sophisticated financial system is fundamentally sound and has so far weathered the global financial market turmoil without major pressures. Banks and insurance companies have enjoyed good profitability, capitalization levels, and reserves. The financial sector regulatory framework is modern and generally effective. Stress tests suggest that capital and reserve cushions at banks and insurance companies are sufficient to absorb large shocks.