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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangement for Tanzania. Economic growth momentum is picking up in 2024 with improved external and fiscal balances, low inflation within the central bank’s target, and easing pressures in the foreign exchange market. Tanzania’s economic reform program supported by the ECF arrangement remained on track. Structural reforms are essential to promote private sector development and inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth. Business reforms should focus on removing obstacles to foreign investment, simplifying the regulatory regime, enhancing governance and regulatory transparency, and improving public policy predictability. The authorities are committed to continue implementing reforms to preserve macro-financial stability, promote sustainable and inclusive growth, advance structural reforms, and address the risks and challenges associated with climate change, supported by the ECF and RSF arrangements.
Zixuan Huang
,
Amina Lahreche
,
Mika Saito
, and
Ursula Wiriadinata
E-money development has important yet theoretically ambiguous consequences for monetary policy transmission, because nonbank deposit-taking e-money issuers (EMIs) (e.g., mobile network operators) can either complement or substitute banks. Case studies of e-money regulations point to complementarity of EMIs with banks, implying that the development of e-money could deepen financial intermediation and strengthen monetary policy transmission. The issue is further explored with panel data, on both monthly (covering 21 countries) and annual (covering 47 countries) frequencies, over 2001 to 2019. We use a two-way fixed effect estimator to estimate the causal effects of e-money development on monetary policy transmission. We find that e-money development has accompanied stronger monetary policy transmission (measured by the responsiveness of interest rates to the policy rate), growth in bank deposits and credit, and efficiency gains in financial intermediation (measured by the lending-to-deposit rate spread). Evidence is more pronounced in countries where e-money development takes off in a context of limited financial inclusion. This paper highlights the potential benefits of e-money development in strengthening monetary policy transmission, especially in countries with limited financial inclusion.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents United Republic of Tanzania’s Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion. Tanzania’s economic reform program is broadly on track. The authorities remain committed to reforms supported by the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, which aim to preserve macro-financial stability, strengthen the economic recovery, and support structural reforms toward sustainable and inclusive growth. Economic growth is expected to pick up starting in 2023 but faces headwinds from the unfavorable global economic environment. Tanzania’s economic reform program is broadly on track. Most end-June 2023 quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets were met. The authorities’ structural reform agenda is progressing well, with all end-June 2023 structural benchmarks completed on time, reflecting their commitment to the reform agenda. Structural reforms are essential to promote inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth. Business reforms should focus on streamlining bureaucratic procedures, simplifying the regulatory regime, and enhancing regulatory transparency. Implementation and enforcement of the authorities’ anti-corruption legislation and strategies is central to enhancing governance. Tanzania’s high vulnerability to climate change calls for continued efforts to increase resilience through mitigation and adaptation policies.
Torsten Wezel
and
Mr. Jack J Ree
Financial inclusion in Nigeria has had undeniable successes, with the onboarding of residents to the banking sector consistently progressing. But the overall exclusion rates continue to exceed official targets, not least due to low financial literacy. Going forward, Nigeria’s financial inclusion strategy should more systematically leverage rapidly developing digital instruments. Uptake of digital financial services, notably mobile money, is still lower than in peer countries, and overcoming this would require improving digital financial literacy, upgrading digital infrastructure, and promoting incubation and sound practices of fintech firms. Nigeria’s CBDC also has an enabling potential if accompanied by a comprehensive package of supportive policies.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts about food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. The paper describes regional aspects of Nigeria’s food insecurity and compares the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 and the war in Ukraine on food security in Nigeria and other countries. It also provides an overview of agricultural production and consumption in Nigeria. The paper investigates the drivers of food security using an empirical cross-country framework including demand, supply, and price factors, and offers thoughts on policies to improve agricultural yields and production. The important role of inputs is evident in the policy experience of comparator countries. Nigeria has achieved a substantial increase in agricultural production associated with its policies but some have been less successful. Import dependency for key staples has not fallen and the cost of these agricultural products remains driven by international prices. Further, central bank credit to the agricultural sector has not succeeded in increasing production beyond the stimulus of high rainfall and high food prices.
Purva Khera
,
Miss Stephanie Y Ng
,
Ms. Sumiko Ogawa
, and
Ms. Ratna Sahay
Digital financial services have been a key driver of financial inclusion in recent years. While there is evidence that financial inclusion through traditional services has a positive impact on economic growth, do the same results carry over for digital financial inclusion? What drives digital financial inclusion? Why does it advance more in some countries but not in others? Using new indices of financial inclusion developed in Khera et. al. (2021), this paper addresses these questions for 52 developing countries. Using cross-sectional instrument variable procedure, we find that the exogenous component of digital financial inclusion is positively associated with growth in GDP per capita during 2011-2018, which suggests that digital financial inclusion can accelerate economic growth. Fractional logit and random effects empirical estimation identifies access to infrastructure, financial and digital literacy, and quality of institutions as key drivers of digital financial inclusion. These findings are then used to help inform policy recommendations in areas related to the digitization of financial services to promote financial inclusion.
Luc Eyraud
,
Irina Bunda
,
Jehann Jack
,
Mr. Tarak Jardak
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
,
Zhangrui Wang
, and
Torsten Wezel
Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.
Luc Eyraud
,
Irina Bunda
,
Jehann Jack
,
Mr. Tarak Jardak
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
,
Zhangrui Wang
, and
Torsten Wezel
Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.
Irina Bunda
,
Luc Eyraud
, and
Zhangrui Wang
The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.