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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 16 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ghana: Third Review Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This page presents Ghana’s Third Review under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Ghana’s performance under the program has been generally satisfactory, and reform efforts are paying off. Good progress has been made on debt restructuring. Growth is recovering rapidly, inflation has declined, although at a slower pace, and the fiscal and external positions have continued to improve. Steadfast implementation of the policy and reform agenda, including before and after the upcoming general elections, remains essential to fully restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. The Ghanaian authorities have continued to make remarkable headways on their public debt restructuring. After successfully restructuring domestic debt last year and reaching agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding with Ghana’s Official Creditors Committee under the G20 Common Framework in June 2024, the government has completed the exchange of its Eurobonds at conditions consistent with program parameters. The authorities have taken appropriate actions to ensure implementation of banks’ recapitalization plans and start recapitalizing state-owned banks.
Keywords:
Ghana Financial sector fund; Policy adjustment; flagship program; cash management framework; tenacious implementation; Debt restructuring; Energy sector; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Following the Money: Who is Keeping Coal Alive?
Gregor Schwerhoff
and
Mouhamadou Sy
The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference reinforced already existing pressure to transition away from fossil fuels, in particular for the most polluting source, coal. We use a comprehensive dataset on bank loans for coal projects to shed light on which type of banks continue to finance coal and how coal phase-out commitments affect coal financing. We find that coal financing is becoming increasingly concentrated, partly in banks with a very high coal exposure. We also find that many coal loans have maturities much shorter than the remaining lifetime of coal assets, thus exposing equity holders of coal assets to the risk of a more difficult loan rollover. An econometric analysis shows that countries with a strong commitment to coal phase-out, fixed in national law for example, receive less coal financing. Using an instrumental variable, we identify this effect as causal.
Keywords:
Coal; climate change; stranded assets; coal; divestment; United Nations climate change conference; Coal financing; phase-out commitment; coal financing; financing to the coal sector; Non-renewable resources; Financial sector development; Climate policy; Foreign direct investment; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Bulgaria: Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises
Anh D. M. Nguyen
State-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) economic and financial performance may have important fiscal implications. This study evaluates related fiscal risks in Bulgaria from both aggregate and firm-level perspectives. The low level of state-guaranteed debt of SOEs poses minimal fiscal risk. However, contingent liabilities could be a fiscal concern in the long term due to the low profitability of major SOEs and their inefficient resource allocation. Given their crucial role in the production network, their inefficiencies likely negatively impact the overall economy’s productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, liquidity and solvency risks are evident in several key SOEs. These findings underscore the need for monitoring and improving SOEs’ financial performance.
Keywords:
Bulgaria; State-Owned Enterprises; SOEs; Fiscal Risks; SOEs’ financial performance; solvency risk; risk threshold; return on assets; health check tool; loss-making SOEs; Public enterprises; Contingent liabilities; Energy sector; Solvency; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Power of Prices: How Fast Do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?
Christian Bogmans
,
Andrea Pescatori
,
Ivan Petrella
,
Ervin Prifti
, and
Martin Stuermer
This paper establishes supply and demand elasticities for a broad set of commodities based on a consistent dataset and identification methodology. We apply granular IV methods to a new cross-country panel dataset of commodity production and consumption from 1960-2021. The results indicate that commodity demand and supply are typically price inelastic. Demand and supply tend to be the most inelastic for minerals, whereas they are most elastic for agricultural commodities. The elasticities of energy commodities fall somewhere in between. Supply and demand become more elastic at longer time horizons for mineral and energy commodities, but not for most agricultural commodities.
Keywords:
Commodities; international trade; price elasticities; demand; supply; energy; agriculture; minerals; metals.; commodity demand and supply; energy commodity; supply and demand elasticity; commodity demand and supply elastities; mineral commodity; Agricultural commodities; Demand elasticity; Supply elasticity; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper studies renewable energy and attempts to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) impact and assesses the role of policies in Chile. Chile has a comparative advantage in renewable energy. IMF estimates show that replacing coal power with solar and wind power, as announced by the government, could boost the long-term GDP level by at least 1 percentage point. The analysis indicates that the benefits of having targeted support for the transmission of electricity exceed costs. An additional benefit is the greater economic resilience to abrupt increases in coal and fuel prices that can have large negative impacts on the economy. A key constraint for the renewable energy sector is currently the transmission from where it is produced to where it is used. A cost-benefit analysis shows that state support industries, such as electricity transmission, may have economic benefits that outweigh the costs.
Keywords:
GDP impact; solvency risk; Chilean bank; Fintech firm; cybersecurity risk; Electricity; Cyber risk; Fintech; Energy sector; Financial inclusion; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
,
Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi
,
Chiara Maggi
,
Alexandre Sollaci
,
Martin Stuermer
, and
Petia Topalova
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Keywords:
Commodities; international trade; sanctions; spillovers; prices; geoeconomic fragmentation; trade disruption; price change; commodity producer; net-commodity-importing country; trade fragmentation; Commodity markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Agricultural commodities; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience
Mr. Anil Ari
,
Philipp Engler
,
Gloria Li
,
Manasa Patnam
, and
Ms. Laura Valderrama
The surge in energy prices due to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine significantly increased costs for European firms, prompting governments to introduce a range of support schemes. Although energy prices had eased by early 2023, uncertainty around prices remains unusually large. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the case for government intervention and identifies best practices with a view to improving the design of existing energy support schemes, facilitating exit from those schemes, and preparing policymakers for a downside scenario in which energy prices flare up again. The paper argues that support should be limited in size, strictly temporary in nature, narrowly targeted, and accompanied by strong safeguards and conditionality, while preserving price signals as much as possible to encourage energy conservation. Finally, the paper reviews recent support schemes introduced by European governments in light of the identified best practice considerations.
Keywords:
Energy prices; energy subsidies; financial support; price caps; energy crisis; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; energy support scheme; price signal; best practice consideration; Annex II; support scheme; Energy pricing; Energy conservation; Fuel prices; Solvency; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models
Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh
,
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Mr. Oussama Kanaan
, and
Christophe Rault
Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.
Keywords:
WP; oil price change; GCC country; correlation coefficient; GCC stock markets; oil prices; smooth transition regression models; GCC stock price volatility; hedging strategy; Stock markets; Asset prices; Oil; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Long-Run Decoupling of Emissions and Output: Evidence from the Largest Emitters
Gail Cohen
,
João Tovar Jalles
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
, and
Ricardo Marto
For the world's 20 largest emitters, we use a simple trend/cycle decomposition to provide evidence of decoupling between greenhouse gas emissions and output in richer nations, particularly in European countries, but not yet in emerging markets. If consumption-based emissions—measures that account for countries' net emissions embodied in cross-border trade—are used, the evidence for decoupling in the richer economies gets weaker. Countries with underlying policy frameworks more supportive of renewable energy and climate change mitigation efforts tend to show greater decoupling between trend emissions and trend GDP, and for both production- and consumption-based emissions. The relationship between trend emissions and trend GDP has also become much weaker in the last two decades than in preceding decades.
Keywords:
WP; trend elasticity; Emissions; Environmental Okun’s Law; Environmental Kuznets Curve; coefficient estimate; GHG emitter; elasticity estimate; consumption pattern; Greenhouse gas emissions; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Climate change; Environmental policy; Climate policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Power It Up: Strengthening the Electricity Sector to Improve Efficiency and Support Economic Activity
Gabriel Di Bella
and
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
Poor performance of the electricity sector remains a drag to economic efficiency and a bottleneck to economic activity in many low-income countries. This paper proposes a number of models that account for different equilibria (some better, some worse) of the electricity sector. They show how policy choices (affecting insolvency prospects or related to rules for electricity dispatching or tariff setting), stochastic generation costs, and initial conditions, affect investment in generation and electricity supply. They also show how credible (non-credible) promises of stronger enforcement to reduce theft result in larger (smaller) electricity supply, lower (higher) government subsidies, and lower (higher) tariffs and distribution losses, which in turn affect economic activity. To illustrate these findings, the paper reviews the experience of Haiti, a country stuck in a bad equilibrium of insufficient supply, high prices, and electricity theft; and that of Nicaragua, which is gradually transitioning to a better equilibrium of the electricity sector.
Keywords:
WP; economic activity; private sector; cash flow; Credible and Non-Credible Promises; Economic efficiency; Economic infrastructure; Electricity Sector; Electricity Theft; Haiti; Nicaragua; generation cost; distribution loss; objective function; electricity tariff; Electricity; Tariffs; Oil prices; Solvency; Government subsidies