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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 243 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ strong policy and efforts to stabilize the economy are yielding positive results: the economy is growing, inflation is on a steady downward trend, and investor confidence is returning. Suriname is implementing an ambitious economic reform agenda aimed at restoring fiscal and debt sustainability through fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring, protecting the vulnerable by expanding social protection, upgrading the monetary and exchange rate policy framework, addressing banking sector vulnerabilities, and advancing the anti-corruption and governance agenda. Monetary policy is supporting disinflation. The authorities’ demonstrated commitment to flexible, market-determined exchange rate is supporting international reserves accumulation. Finalization of the central bank recapitalization plan will help further strengthen its operational independence and financial autonomy. Building on the progress made thus far under the program, continued efforts are needed to entrench fiscal discipline, while protecting the poor and vulnerable, and further strengthen institutions and address governance weaknesses.
Keywords:
FX trading platform; address governance weakness; Policy outlook; Surinamese authorities; banking sector vulnerability; governance agenda; policy reform; State oil company; government T-bill exposure; Arrears; Energy subsidies; Domestic debt; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Nigeria, under its new administration, has set out on an ambitious reform path to restore macroeconomic stability and support inclusive growth. The authorities reformed the fuel price subsidies, unified official foreign exchange windows, and are focused on revenue mobilization, governance, and enhancing the monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks, as well as strengthening social safety nets. Near-term risks are tilted to the downside, but determined and well-sequenced implementation of the authorities’ policy intentions would pave the way for faster, more inclusive and resilient growth. Further strengthening bank capitalization and tight supervision are needed to mitigate emerging financial sector stability risks. Improving the functioning of the domestic securities and foreign exchange markets should enhance the monetary transition mechanism and attract capital inflows. Structural reforms can ease near-term policy trade-offs. Nigeria should continue supporting agricultural productivity, sustain actions to reduce oil theft, remove burdensome border procedures, and accelerate climate adaptation measures.
Keywords:
March inflation; inflation projection; monetary policy committee meeting; March production; inflation print; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Inflation; Currency markets; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Communauté économique et monétaire d’Afrique centrale (CEMAC): politiques communes en appui aux programmes de réforme des pays membres-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI; annexe d’information; déclaration de l’administrateur
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
La reprise économique de la CEMAC s’est accélérée en 2022 à la faveur de la hausse des prix des hydrocarbures. La position extérieure s’est renforcée et les réserves de change augmentent rapidement, quoique demeurant en deçà des niveaux adéquats. La récente baisse des réserves extérieures nécessite des mesures plus énergiques pour resserrer les conditions de liquidité, un respect plus strict de la réglementation des changes par les pays membres et un renforcement de la discipline budgétaire. Les positions budgétaires hors pétrole sous-jacentes se sont toutefois également détériorées. Il sera donc nécessaire d’accélérer les réformes structurelles, de corriger les dérapages budgétaires récents et de ramener les politiques publiques en ligne avec les objectifs des programmes appuyés par le FMI et les conseils des services du FMI. Ces actions seront nécessaires pour accroître la capacité de résistance de la région à la volatilité des prix des hydrocarbures, à l’instabilité financière, à l’inflation persistante, au resserrement des conditions financières, à l’insécurité alimentaire, aux conflits internes et à l’insécurité, ainsi qu’aux événements climatiques.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses common policies of member countries, and common policies in support of member countries reform programs in Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). In order to preserve price stability and strengthen external buffers, maintain a data-dependent monetary policy with a tightening bias; further increase interest rates on liquidity absorption and gradually converge toward the main policy rate, and switch to a full allotment procedure; and resolve remaining issues to a complete and effective implementation of the foreign exchange regulations. The CEMAC economy continued to recover, supported by favorable hydrocarbon prices, strengthening its external position. Global inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, though remain elevated, while continued tightening of financial conditions could put a dent on economic growth. Maintaining fiscal consolidation paths consistent with IMF-supported programs and surveillance advice, and accelerating structural reforms are critical for boosting economic diversification and resilience. In order to lift potential growth and enhance economic diversification and resilience, accelerate structural reforms in areas of governance and regulation; productivity-enhancing investments; and deepen regional trade integration.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belgium: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belgium
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that though resilient to shocks, the Belgium economy and financial sector face significant cyclical and structural challenges and risks to the outlook. Owing to a strong and timely policy response, the economy resisted the coronavirus disease and energy crises. Meanwhile, an aging population and the climate transition are putting pressure on public finances while low productivity and labor participation are dampening potential growth. Growth is expected to decelerate further in 2024, before returning to potential. Private consumption will normalize, as momentum from wage and social benefit indexation, lower energy prices, and post-pandemic pent-up demand ebbs. Headline inflation is projected to drop in 2023 and return to 4.4 percent in 2024, mostly due to fading effects from energy price support measures. Structural reforms in labor and product markets and further progress in green transition are key to boost potential growth, mitigate the impact of fiscal consolidation, and address medium-term challenges.
Keywords:
government formation; money market rate; Belgium economy; General government statement; General government balance; FSAP stress tests; Fiscal consolidation; Energy prices; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe is at a turning point. After last year’s crippling energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe faces the difficult task of restoring price stability now while securing strong and green growth in the medium term. Economic activity has started to cool and inflation to fall as a result of monetary policy action, phasing-out supply shocks, and falling energy prices. Sustained wage growth could, however, delay achieving price stability by 2025. Failing to tackle inflation now will risk additional growth damage in a world exposed to structural shocks from fragmentation and climate change. These global headwinds add to Europe’s long-standing productivity and convergence problems. To lift Europe’s potential for strong and green growth, countries need to remove obstacles to economic dynamism and upgrade infrastructure. This will strengthen business-friendly conditions and investment. Cooperation at the European level and with international partners will position Europe as a leader in the climate transition and support economic stability across the continent.

Keywords:
inflation; growth; monetary policy; labor; headline inflation; core inflation; coverage ratio; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; capitalization rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Energy prices; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience
Mr. Anil Ari
,
Philipp Engler
,
Gloria Li
,
Manasa Patnam
, and
Ms. Laura Valderrama
The surge in energy prices due to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine significantly increased costs for European firms, prompting governments to introduce a range of support schemes. Although energy prices had eased by early 2023, uncertainty around prices remains unusually large. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the case for government intervention and identifies best practices with a view to improving the design of existing energy support schemes, facilitating exit from those schemes, and preparing policymakers for a downside scenario in which energy prices flare up again. The paper argues that support should be limited in size, strictly temporary in nature, narrowly targeted, and accompanied by strong safeguards and conditionality, while preserving price signals as much as possible to encourage energy conservation. Finally, the paper reviews recent support schemes introduced by European governments in light of the identified best practice considerations.
Keywords:
Energy prices; energy subsidies; financial support; price caps; energy crisis; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; energy support scheme; price signal; best practice consideration; Annex II; support scheme; Energy pricing; Energy conservation; Fuel prices; Solvency; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with the United Kingdom discusses that market stress following the September 2022 “mini-budget” has dissipated, in the context of a successful financial stability intervention by the Bank of England (BoE) and two prudent budgets. The post-pandemic recovery was disrupted by the sharp energy price shock due to Russia’s war in Ukraine; labor force participation has declined, mainly because of rising long-term illness; and large policy rate increases—needed to arrest high and sticky inflation—have tightened financial conditions. The overarching policy objectives are price and financial stability, while reforming the fiscal and financial frameworks, and boosting sustainable, medium-term growth. Monetary Policy will need to be tightened further to arrest inflationary pressures, which have shown greater-than-expected persistence, and durably bring inflation to the 2 percent target. Fiscal Policy should remain aligned with monetary policy in the fight against inflation and account for very significant medium-term pressures related to service delivery (especially healthcare), and needed investments in skills, innovation, infrastructure, and the green transition.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; May inflation outturn; UK financial system; BoE website; inflation projection; Inflation; Financial sector stability; Energy prices; Nonbank financial institutions; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of the energy price shock on UK households and firms and describes the energy support measures introduced by the UK government. The paper also provides IMF staff’s assessment of these measures and sets out some options to optimize the policy response to a possible resurgence in energy prices. These include structural measures to ensure energy security and raise resilience to spikes in energy prices, and options to refine, especially the targeting of, support measures that could be introduced in response. Retail energy prices in the UK have seen greater pass-through from wholesale prices than in regional peers. Broader business support should be targeted at viable but financially vulnerable firms and focus on limiting scarring while facilitating the adjustment to higher energy prices. Liquidity support may also be appropriate to enable energy providers to meet their margin calls while continuing energy purchases on wholesale markets. At the same time, support should be structured in a way to prevent moral hazard by management and investors.
Keywords:
UK business investment; LDI crisis; United kingdom's LIABILITY-DRIVEN investment; energy support scheme; LDI fund; Energy prices; Private investment; Pension spending; Nonbank financial institutions; Labor force participation; Europe; Global