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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data
Ha Nguyen
and
Samuel Pienknagura
Using quarterly temperature and sectoral value-added data for a large sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), this paper uncovers nuanced effects of temperature on economic activity. For EMDEs, hotter spring and summer temperatures reduce growth in real value-added of manufacturing, and most significantly, of agriculture, while a warmer winter boosts it. For advanced countries (AEs), a hotter spring hurts growth in real value-added of all considered sectors: services, manufacturing and agriculture. For both country groups, the negative effect of a hotter spring is larger and more persistent than the positive effect of a warmer winter. Furthermore, the adverse impacts of hotter temperatures in advanced economies have accentuated in recent decades. This result suggests increased vulnerability to rising temperatures.
Keywords:
climate change; temperature; economic growth; agriculture; summer temperature; emerging markets and developing economies; IMF working paper 24/202; quarterly temperature; seasonal temperature; Agricultural sector; Manufacturing; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Mobile Technologies Enhance Productivity? A Structural Model and Evidence from Benin Food Suppliers
Pierre Nguimkeu
and
Cedric I Okou
This paper analyzes the drivers of digital technologies adoption and how it affects the productivity of small scale businesses in Africa. We use data collected from two semi-rural markets in Benin, where grains and legumes are key staple foods and one-third of the population has internet access. We develop a structural model to rationalize digital technologies adoption—defined as the use of mobile broadband internet connection through smartphones—as well as usage patterns and outcomes observed in the data. The model’s implications are empirically tested using both reduced-form and structural maximum likelihood estimations. We find that younger, wealthier, more educated grains and legumes suppliers and those closely surrounded by other users are more likely to adopt digital technologies. Adopters perform 4-5 more business transactions each month than non-adopters on average, suggesting that digital technologies adoption could raise the monthly frequency and amounts of trades by up to 50%. Most adopters are women, but their productivity gains are lower than their male counterparts. Counterfactual policy simulations with the estimated model suggest that upgrading the broadband internet quality yields the largest improvement in adoption rate and productivity gains, while reducing its cost for a given connection quality only has a moderate effect. Improving access to credit only increases the adoption rate of constrained suppliers.
Keywords:
Digital Technology Adoption; Food Supply; Counterfactual Analysis; productivity gain; legumes supplier; adoption rate; broadband internet quality; Productivity; Agricultural commodities; Financial inclusion; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on a case study on copra subsidy in Kiribati. The copra subsidy, disbursed as a minimum support price, is a major part of the social safety net in Kiribati. The subsidy has multiple purposes—including as a means to transfer resources to the outer islands and to stem migration to the capital. The horizontal diversification model shows that a higher subsidy on copra diverts production and labor towards copra but lowers overall income. The vertical diversification model demonstrates how a subsidy on a primary product increases its supply but reduces production of the final good. Considering the benefits, the government could boost the subsidy’s efficiency, replace the scheme with a poverty-targeted social assistance program, or impose a cap on payments. Development partners, including the IMF and the World Bank, stand ready to provide support in both areas as needed.
Keywords:
COPRA subsidy; Copra support price; price support scheme; impact of subsidy; household income expenditure survey report; cut support price; Price incentives; Agricultural commodities; Income; Exports; Pacific Islands; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Power of Prices: How Fast Do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?
Christian Bogmans
,
Andrea Pescatori
,
Ivan Petrella
,
Ervin Prifti
, and
Martin Stuermer
This paper establishes supply and demand elasticities for a broad set of commodities based on a consistent dataset and identification methodology. We apply granular IV methods to a new cross-country panel dataset of commodity production and consumption from 1960-2021. The results indicate that commodity demand and supply are typically price inelastic. Demand and supply tend to be the most inelastic for minerals, whereas they are most elastic for agricultural commodities. The elasticities of energy commodities fall somewhere in between. Supply and demand become more elastic at longer time horizons for mineral and energy commodities, but not for most agricultural commodities.
Keywords:
Commodities; international trade; price elasticities; demand; supply; energy; agriculture; minerals; metals.; commodity demand and supply; energy commodity; supply and demand elasticity; commodity demand and supply elastities; mineral commodity; Agricultural commodities; Demand elasticity; Supply elasticity; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
,
Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi
,
Chiara Maggi
,
Alexandre Sollaci
,
Martin Stuermer
, and
Petia Topalova
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Keywords:
Commodities; international trade; sanctions; spillovers; prices; geoeconomic fragmentation; trade disruption; price change; commodity producer; net-commodity-importing country; trade fragmentation; Commodity markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Agricultural commodities; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Zambia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on boosting sustainable growth in Zambia. Zambia’s economy is highly dependent on mining and agriculture, but despite its abundant resources, growth has been insufficient to lift its young and growing population from poverty. The new government, which came into power in 2021, adopted a new approach to growth, focusing first on restoring macroeconomic stability as the precondition to sustainable growth. Rule of law and fighting corruption have also been highlighted as key to improving the business environment. Restoring macroeconomic stability and credibility, improving the business climate and governance is the best way to attract new investment. Prompt and clear resolution of the debt restructuring removes the largest obstacle to economic recovery. It would lower uncertainty for foreign and domestic investors and boost the impact of the government’s program to restore macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. Reducing corruption, streamlining bureaucratic procedures, and easing the business environment would attract investment. The focus on education and health is warranted. A simulation of the impact of improved education and health indicators because of government’s investment in health and education show a significant increase in long-term growth rates.
Keywords:
G. agriculture policy; agriculture sector; agriculture sector contribution; Growth dividend; growth potential; Agricultural sector; Systemic risk; Financial sector stability; Commercial banks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Burundi discusses economic growth, fragility, and non-price competitiveness. In the aftermath of the 2015 crisis that has further fragilized the Burundian economy, the authorities have developed and adopted in 2018 a 10-year National development plan. The origins of Burundi’s fragility are historical, political, and institutional, leading to weak economic performance for the country. More efforts are needed to move the country out of fragility. Focus on investing in the country's long-term peacebuilding would be key. Transparency, social equity, and the fight against corruption are all major actions needed to ensure political stabilization. Also, special attention should be devoted to building a stronger and more resilient economy. Key bottlenecks to Burundi's competitiveness include climate shocks, energy and water constraints, and public management inefficiencies. After several years of instability in Burundi substantive efforts to improve competitiveness have been made.
Keywords:
Burundi's banking sector; equilibrium exchange rate; liquidity tender; banking health indicator; women borrower; Exchange rates; Nominal effective exchange rate; Real exchange rates; Currency markets; Global; Climate change
Cover Analytical Notes
Subsidies, Trade, and International Cooperation
International Monetary Fund
,
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
, and
World Bank
The international organizations (IOs) authoring this report can strengthen their individual and joint work to support governments in this endeavor. While the brunt of this work lies with finance ministries, trade ministries, and sectoral and specialized agencies of national governments, international organizations have key roles to play. The four authoring institutions are examining ways to help, individually and jointly, such as by collecting, organizing, and sharing data, coordinating analytical work agendas to develop methodologies to assess the cross-border effects of different forms of subsidies, and supporting inter-governmental dialogues. This will involve reaching out to and working with other international institutions as well.
Keywords:
OECD matrix; D. OECD export credit provision; WTO secretariat; data IMF Library; B. support measure; publication order; WTO member; Secretary-General of the OECD; Export credits; Government subsidies; Competition; Agricultural sector; Trade systems; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
E. business climate; trade openness; G. Policy recommendation; authorities PRODESI program; government effectiveness; Agricultural sector; Climate change; Infrastructure; Competition; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes investment strategy to foster structural transformation in Rwanda. Over the past 15 years, Rwanda has transformed its economy by moving workers out of agriculture into mostly services and some industry. This has been accomplished through strong public investment flows and efficient public investment management. Going forward, the challenge is whether the private sector can complement the infrastructure assets put in place by the public sector and maintain economic momentum. It will also require continued effort by the government in raising education standards, better matching qualifications offered to students to those most in demand by employers, and lowering electricity and transportation costs.
Keywords:
EAC gender inequality indicator; banking sector soundness indicator map; UN gender inequality Index; D. gender equality in Rwanda; private sector credit; C. gender inequality; Gender inequality; Women; Financial inclusion; Agricultural sector; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa