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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 663 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Climate Risk Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Indonesia is exposed to both climate change transition risks and physical risks. With primary energy supply heavily dominated by fossil fuels, like many other countries, and as a major exporter of coal and liquefied natural gas, Indonesia is exposed to risks from the transition toward a carbon-neutral economy. Moreover, Indonesia is vulnerable to natural hazards, such as floods, droughts, and wildfires. With global temperatures rising, the frequency and severity of such events is expected to rise as well.
Keywords:
staff team of the International Monetary Fund; World Bank staff; Indonesia FSAP; risk scenario; earnings before interest and taxes; interest coverage ratio; current ratio; Natural disasters; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Grenada: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Through end-June 2024, Grenada’s economy was experiencing sustained strong growth supported by buoyant tourism, moderating inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit. A surge in Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue supported a strong improvement in budget balances, a build-up of government deposits, and a reduction in public debt. On July 1, Hurricane Beryl caused damage in excess of 16 percent of GDP on the Grenadian islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, as well as in the northern parishes of the main island, affecting around 15 percent of the population. In response, the authorities triggered the suspension of fiscal rules to permit temporary deficit spending in support of the recovery and reconstruction.
Keywords:
infrastructure investment facility; IIP source data; TA mission; CBI revenue; tourism infrastructure; CBI program; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following a protracted period of shocks. While the unemployment rate has declined to historical lows, employment loss has been sizable and domestic demand has remained weak amid tight financial conditions and property market downturn, both locally and in Mainland China. The territory’s integration with Mainland China, including in the context of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative, has significantly increased in recent years, but rising regional competition has put pressure on some of its traditional growth engines, prompting the authorities to pursue new sources of growth, including from innovative, technology-driven sectors.
Keywords:
consultation discussion; exchange regime; surveillance topic; rate of HK; surveillance effort; Housing; Housing prices; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Seychelles: Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Stress Testing and Climate Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Technical Assistance (TA) mission, conducted in Victoria, Seychelles, from May 2 to 17, 2023, assisted authorities with macroprudential stress testing and climate risk analysis. The stress testing focused on strengthening the solvency and liquidity frameworks: (i) for solvency, considering credit and foreign exchange risks to design robust scenarios, applying econometric techniques to enhance their risk assessment, and (ii) for the liquidity stress test, enhancing the cash flow analyses utilized by the authorities. For the climate risk analysis framework, the mission reviewed essential components, identified data sources, and provided hands-on training for climate risk assessment. Recommendations include fostering collaboration within CBB and other agencies, better leveraging available data, and improving data collection for stress testing and climate risk analysis. The CBS is expected to advance its framework and address data challenges to implement stress testing and climate risk analysis initiatives effectively.
Keywords:
Climate change; Climate scenario analysis; Environment; Financial sector policy and analysis; Liquidity stress testing; Macroprudential stress testing; Natural disasters; Solvency stress testing' Seychelles.; IMF stress; Department mission; Climate risk analysis diagnosis; mission Climate risk analysis component; IMF's Monetary; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Stress testing; Credit risk; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Market Power in the Middle East
Yevgeniya Korniyenko
,
Ahmed K Tohamy
, and
Weining Xin
The Middle East (ME) is often perceived as region with rentier economies and uncompetitive markets. Evidence of market power in the region however is scant. In this paper, we ask the following three questions: Is the ME uniquely uncompetitive? Has the evolution of market power in the region traced the global rise in market power? What government policies and actions influenced the market power in the region and can taxes be a way to even the playing field? To answer these questions, we utilize comprehensive firm-level data from Compustat between 2004 and 2022 and employ two methods for estimating markups (production function and cost-share approach). We document that market power among listed firms in the ME is higher than in the US, but on a downward trend. We find that the value-added tax (VAT) reforms introduced by some Gulf states from 2018 to 2022 resulted in a reduction of market power, an additional benefit beyond increasing fiscal space. While policymakers should continue to use available regulatory levers to achieve economic efficiency and a level playing field, VAT could be considered as an alternative instrument.
Keywords:
Middle East; Market Power; Markup; Firm Behavior; market power in the Middle East; markups estimate; sample representativeness; markups in GCC country; markups dynamics; Value-added tax; Competition; Inflation; Oil sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Fourth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for Modification of Targets, Second Review Under the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Rephasing Access-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on Paraguay’s Fourth Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), Request for Modification of Targets, Second Review under the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and Request for Rephasing Access. Buoyant activity continues, reflecting high consumer confidence and expanding services and manufacturing sectors. Going forward, it would be essential to maintaining fiscal sustainability and continue with the structural reform efforts. The program performance under the PCI has been solid, underpinned by actions to preserve macroeconomic stability to enhance the country’s economic growth prospects. Progress on the climate agenda under the RSF remains strong, bolstering Paraguay's resilience to climate shocks. Stabilizing the finances of the public pension system should remain a priority. Monetary policy should continue to be guided by data when contemplating further easing. The structural reform implementation should be accelerated in promoting growth and inclusiveness specifically through reforms in labor markets, addressing a high level of informality, and improving governance and addressing corruption.
Keywords:
RSF program implementation; Sustainability facility update; E. World Bank engagement; government expenditure efficiency; RSF Reviews; Resilience and Sustainability Facility update; Credit; Basel Core Principles; Global; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Papua New Guinea: Third Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Extension, Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Papua New Guinea
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s Third Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Requests for Extension, Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Papua New Guinea’s economic outlook remains positive, with growth expected to increase to 4.5 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025 from 2.9 percent in 2023, supported by the resumption of activities at the Porgera gold mine and improvements in access to foreign exchange. Given the country’s high vulnerability to climate change, managing its impact is critical to the success of the authorities’ poverty reduction and sustainable growth agenda. The ECF/EFF and RSF programs will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, focusing on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, fostering good governance and building climate resilience, while protecting the vulnerable and promoting inclusive and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
RSF reform agenda; PNG government; EFF arrangement; EFF program; RSF arrangement; government plan; PNG agriculture commercialization; Climate change; Climate finance; Global; Pacific Islands; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Industrial Policy in Europe: A Single Market Perspective
Andrew Hodge
,
Roberto Piazza
,
Fuad Hasanov
,
Xun Li
,
Maryam Vaziri
,
Atticus Weller
, and
Yu Ching Wong
European countries are increasingly turning to industrial policy to address the challenge of geopolitical fragmentation, enhance productivity, and accelerate the green transition. Well-targeted industrial policy has the potential to correct market failures and support production efficiency by exploiting scale effects and internalizing knowledge externalities. But even the most carefully designed unilateral industrial policies risk generating negative production externalities in other countries, and, under certain conditions, may not even be welfare-enhancing for the implementing country. The reason is that negative externalities of unilateral industrial policy can drive European and international production patterns away from underlying comparative advantages, create regional or global over-supply, and result in changes in terms of trade that reduce domestic welfare. This suggests significant benefits from coordination. Structural modeling and case studies show that a coordinated approach within the European Union and with international trading partners on a narrowly defined and carefully designed set of industrial policies could unlock untapped benefits. Closer European integration would facilitate the adjustment of firms and workers to coordinated and well-targeted industrial policies and amplify their benefits.
Keywords:
Industrial policy; European Single Market; State Aid; EU aerospace industry export; EU single market; fishery block exemption regulation; State aid expenditure; single market perspective; Comparative advantage; Demand elasticity; Competition; Terms of trade; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ghana: Third Review Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This page presents Ghana’s Third Review under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Ghana’s performance under the program has been generally satisfactory, and reform efforts are paying off. Good progress has been made on debt restructuring. Growth is recovering rapidly, inflation has declined, although at a slower pace, and the fiscal and external positions have continued to improve. Steadfast implementation of the policy and reform agenda, including before and after the upcoming general elections, remains essential to fully restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. The Ghanaian authorities have continued to make remarkable headways on their public debt restructuring. After successfully restructuring domestic debt last year and reaching agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding with Ghana’s Official Creditors Committee under the G20 Common Framework in June 2024, the government has completed the exchange of its Eurobonds at conditions consistent with program parameters. The authorities have taken appropriate actions to ensure implementation of banks’ recapitalization plans and start recapitalizing state-owned banks.
Keywords:
Ghana Financial sector fund; Policy adjustment; flagship program; cash management framework; tenacious implementation; Debt restructuring; Energy sector; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Middle East