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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe is at a turning point. After last year’s crippling energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe faces the difficult task of restoring price stability now while securing strong and green growth in the medium term. Economic activity has started to cool and inflation to fall as a result of monetary policy action, phasing-out supply shocks, and falling energy prices. Sustained wage growth could, however, delay achieving price stability by 2025. Failing to tackle inflation now will risk additional growth damage in a world exposed to structural shocks from fragmentation and climate change. These global headwinds add to Europe’s long-standing productivity and convergence problems. To lift Europe’s potential for strong and green growth, countries need to remove obstacles to economic dynamism and upgrade infrastructure. This will strengthen business-friendly conditions and investment. Cooperation at the European level and with international partners will position Europe as a leader in the climate transition and support economic stability across the continent.

Keywords:
inflation; growth; monetary policy; labor; headline inflation; core inflation; coverage ratio; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; capitalization rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Energy prices; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
E. climate adaptation financing; Mauritania's climate policy commitment; Policy recommendation; climate change readiness; climate change in Mauritania; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Exchange rate flexibility; Climate change; Natural disasters; Exchange rates; Currency markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This selected issue paper discusses the desirable institutional and macro-financial conditions and optimal path toward greater exchange rate flexibility in the Islamic Republic of Mauritania. It also identifies the macro-financial risks that arise and mitigation measures supporting a smooth transition and discusses reforms needed for a successful and smooth shift, including the need for an alternative nominal anchor and modern monetary policy framework, more developed financial markets, and resilient financial sector. Mauritania is a small economy exposed to terms-of-trade shocks. The current account deficit is volatile and sometimes sizeable. International reserves remained adequate until 2021 but are expected to fall around the adequacy threshold due to the negative external shock. A more flexible exchange rate would reduce the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks and preserve international reserves. Countries that are heavily reliant on a single commodity or a group of commodities need more exchange rate flexibility to respond to changes in world commodity prices and to mitigate their spillovers into other sectors.
Keywords:
E. climate adaptation financing; Mauritania's climate policy commitment; Policy recommendation; climate change readiness; climate change in Mauritania; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Exchange rate flexibility; Climate change; Natural disasters; Exchange rates; Currency markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting
Surjit Bhalla
,
Karan Bhasin
, and
Mr. Prakash Loungani
We examine the impact of formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on inflation, growth and anchoring of inflation expectations in advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Our paper reports several findings relevant to assessing the success of IT regimes. We find that while the early adopters of IT (pre-2000) all saw declines in inflation rates following adoption, IT adopters since then have enjoyed such success in only about half the cases. Since there is not much difference, on average, between IT and non-IT countries in mean inflation, inflation volatility and the extent of inflation anchoring, it is not easy to sort out what role IT has played in ensuring good outcomes; in particular, we cannot rule out the possibility that the success of IT may be due to ‘regression to the mean’. Our country-level analysis—using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to compare outcomes in IT countries to a synthetic cohort—shows that IT adoption delivers significant inflation gains in about a third of the cases. At the same time, we also find limited support for the concern that adoption of IT systematically leads to poorer growth outcomes. At a time when central banks are struggling to keep inflation in check, our results suggest that the belief that IT adoption will be sufficient to achieve this goal cannot be taken for granted.
Keywords:
Inflation targeting; Inflation expectations; Inflation forecasts; IT adoption; inflation volatility; IT country; IT adopter; inflation expectation; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF’s Precautionary Lending Instruments: Have They Worked?
Giulio Lisi
The paper documents the benefits provided by IMF’s precautionary instruments (FCL and PLL) to countries in accessing international financial markets. It builds on multiple methods to show that the announcement of new FCL or PLL generally leads to a significant decline in sovereign spreads. Next, it evaluates the role of the FCL and PLL in mitigating external financial pressures, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study. Economies which had a PLL or FCL arrangement in place during the pandemic experienced a lower increase in spreads relative to other emerging markets, even after controlling for country-specific effects and other covariates, suggesting that these arrangements help cushion external shocks. Finally, the study asks whether FCL/PLL drawdowns have an impact on financial perceptions; the analysis finds—albeit on the basis of a very small sample— no evidence of downside effects from countries drawing down on these arrangements .
Keywords:
IMF; Precautionary instruments; Event studies; Synthetic control.; PLL drawdown; precautionary lending instrument; fcl arrangement; precautionary instrument; PLL adopter; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Credit default swap; Sovereign bonds; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2022: The Scramble for Energy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, December 2022
Keywords:
energy transition; West Indies cricket team; fossil fuel use; energy consumption; West Indies cricket journey; Renewable energy; Fuel prices; Non-renewable resources; Energy prices; Electricity; Europe; Global; Caribbean; Africa; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Uzbekistan’s Transition to Inflation Targeting
Moayad Al Rasasi
and
Ezequiel Cabezon
Uzbekistan has significantly improved its monetary policy framework during 2017-21. Nevertheless, the transition to inflation targeting is challenging as the country is going through a period of deep structural reforms. Therefore, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) will have to monitor structural reforms and calibrate monetary policy accordingly. This paper identifies institutional and structural gaps, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Institutional gaps are assessed using institutional indexes while transmission is assessed using VARs. It concludes that in the coming years, reforms will need to continue, to further improve the CBU’s governance and independence, develop financial markets, but most of all to reduce the still large footprint of the state in the financial sector as well as in the overall economy.
Keywords:
Uzbekistan; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; post inflation targeting implementation; monetary policy outcome; monetary policy transmission; inflation targeting condition; transition to inflation targeting; transmission mechanism; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Dollarization; Currency markets; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Departmental Papers
Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets
Mr. Marco Arena
,
Mr. Rudolfs Bems
,
Mr. Nadeem Ilahi
,
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
,
William Lindquist
, and
Mr. Tonny Lybek
Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the 2020 pandemic. The common main goals were to address market dysfunction and impaired monetary transmission, distinct from the quantitative easing conducted by major advanced economy central banks. Likely reflecting the global nature of the crisis, these APPs defied the traditional emerging market concern of destabilizing the exchange rate or inflation expectations and instead alleviated markets successfully. We uncover some evidence that APPs in European emerging markets stabilized government bond markets and boosted equity prices, with no indication of exchange rate pressure. Examining global and domestic factors that could limit the usability of APPs, in the event of renewed market dysfunction we see a potential scope for scaling up APPs in most European emerging markets that used APPs during the pandemic, provided that they remain consistent with the primary objective of monetary policy and keep a safe distance from the risk of fiscal dominance. As central banks in the region move towards monetary policy tightening, the tapering, ending, and unwinding of APPs must also be carefully considered. Clear and transparent communication is critical at each step of the process, from the inception to the closure of APPs, particularly when a large shock hits and triggers a major policy shift.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; Emerging markets; COVID-19 pandemic; Europe; asset purchase programs; emerging market concern; IMF library; market dysfunction; emerging market central banks; Yield curve; Government securities; Sovereign bonds; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Ukraine
Mr. Anil Ari
and
Gabor Pula
Ukraine’s economic performance has been anemic since the early 1990s. A major impediment to productivity growth has been low investment, held back by lack of strong and independent institutions. This paper aims to assess the major areas of institutional weakness in Ukraine and quantify the long-term growth impact of catching-up to Poland in terms of the quality of major economic institutions and market development. Our analysis identifies the legal system as the area where the institutional quality is weakest compared to Poland, followed distantly by market competition, openness to trade and financial depth. Using a methodology that accounts for positive spillovers between the structural reform areas, we estimate that even under the most optimistic scenario, where institutional gaps are fully addressed, Ukraine would need 15 years to catch up to Poland’s current income level.
Keywords:
growth impact; reform gap; reform scenario; scenario Ukraine; indicator value; Structural reforms; Total factor productivity; Commodity markets; International reserves; Corruption; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Parameterizing Debt Maturity
Mr. Philip Barrett
and
Christopher Johns
This paper examines ways to summarize the maturity structure of public debts using a small number of parameters. We compile a novel dataset of all promised future payments for US and UK government debt from every month since 1869, and more recently for Peru, Poland, Egypt, and Nigeria. We show that there is a unique parametric form which does not arbitrarily restrict debt issuance – portfolios of bonds with exponential coupons. Compared to the most popular alternative, this form 1) more accurately describes changes in debt maturity for these six countries and 2) gives a quite different interpretation of historical debt maturity. Our work can be applied not just to analyze past debt movements, but – because parameter estimates are relatively similar across countries – also for monitoring changes in debt maturity, including in countries where data are partial or incomplete.
Keywords:
maturity structure; debt maturity; MLE estimate; debt issuance; debt obligation; Bonds; Securities markets; Securities; Emerging and frontier financial markets