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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s Third Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Requests for Extension, Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Papua New Guinea’s economic outlook remains positive, with growth expected to increase to 4.5 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025 from 2.9 percent in 2023, supported by the resumption of activities at the Porgera gold mine and improvements in access to foreign exchange. Given the country’s high vulnerability to climate change, managing its impact is critical to the success of the authorities’ poverty reduction and sustainable growth agenda. The ECF/EFF and RSF programs will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, focusing on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, fostering good governance and building climate resilience, while protecting the vulnerable and promoting inclusive and sustainable growth.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The main objective of the FSSR diagnostic mission was to help the PNG authorities build a roadmap of technical assistance (TA) to address identified financial sector needs and gaps, with a view to strengthen resilience of financial institutions and to enhance the policy framework. The PNG FSSR diagnostic covered six areas: (i) macroprudential policy; (ii) regulation and supervision of banks and other deposit-taking financial institutions; (iii) regulation and supervision of insurance companies and pension funds; (iv) financial safety net and crisis preparedness framework; (v) financial market infrastructure; and (vi) financial sector statistics.
Philip Barrett
This is the third update of the reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), describing the evolution of social unrest worldwide since June 2023. It shows that the global incidence of unrest has stayed broadly stable in the last year. However, the global distribution has not been even, with a concentration of major events in Europe and sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, in the Western Hemisphere.
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
,
William Oman
,
Jamie Fraser
,
Mariza Montes de Oca Leon
, and
Bella Yao
The economy is embedded in, and dependent on, nature. Yet economic activity is degrading nature at an unprecedented pace. Interacting with climate change, nature loss and transformation generates significant threats to the global economy and financial system. However, work on the implications of nature-related risks for macroeconomic and financial sector policies remains at an early stage. This note seeks to contribute to this emerging policy space in three main ways: (i) it proposes a conceptual framework for understanding nature-related risks by mapping out macroeconomic transmission channels, emphasizing their impact on the economy and financial systems through “double materiality;” (ii) it conducts empirical analysis, finding that nearly 38 percent of bank loans of the 100 largest global banks are to harmful subsidies-dependent sectors and 44 percent are exposed to conservation areas under the Global Biodiversity Framework, and that industries most exposed to nature degradation are not well prepared to manage these risks; and (iii) it discusses takeaways for macroeconomic and financial sector policies and frameworks.
Joseph Kogan
,
Romina Kazandjian
,
Shijia Luo
,
Moustapha Mbohou
, and
Hui Miao
Using a database of emerging market fundamentals and bond index spreads across 56 frontier and emerging market countries rated below investment grade during the period 2002-22, we assess whether IMF arrangements can restore access to international capital markets (ICM) for countries in distress through liquidity and conditionality channels. We find that global financial conditions and debt/GDP are the most important determinants of access to ICM within the horizon of a typical IMF arrangement. Using an event study methodology, we show that spreads increase prior to the start of an IMF arrangement and then decrease gradually. By exploiting different characteristics of IMF arrangements, we find evidence that the reforms implemented under the IMF arrangement, as measured by rounds of successful IMF reviews, matter more in the medium term than the IMF’s role as a liquidity provider. These results are consistent with our analysis of 55 credit rating upgrades to ICM access levels, which suggests that debt reduction plays the largest role and that IMF arrangements lend credibility to reforms.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report discusses Papua New Guinea’s Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI) mission. The mission, in collaboration with the Bank of Papua New Guinea staff, updated the bridge tables from the source data for compiling FSIs for deposit takers (DT) and developed new ones to compile FSIs for Life Insurance Corporations and pension funds (PF) for reporting to IMF’s Statistics Department. The mission identified several areas for improvements in data collection and methodological framework. The mission also updated the metadata and institutional coverage report forms accompanying the publication of FSIs. The 2019 FSIs Guide recommends the collection and dissemination of data on other comprehensive income in the income and expense statements for DTs, ICs and PFs. The Basel I regulatory framework is applied uniformly to all commercial banks, licensed financial institutions and microfinance institutions.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Papua New Guinea’s First Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria. Papua New Guinea’s economic outlook remains favorable. The medium-term outlook is positive but subject to both large upside and downside risks. The strong program performance recorded in the first six months of the ECF/EFF arrangements attests to the authorities’ sustained commitment to reforms, successfully overcoming technical and institutional capacity constraints. Program performance has been strong, with all end-June 2023 performance criteria met and all structural benchmarks implemented. The program will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, help protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth, with a focus maintained on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, and enhancing governance and operationalizing the anti-corruption framework.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The background papers support the stocktaking analysis and the proposed way forward for the 2023 review of the IMF's AML/CFT Strategy. The five background papers provide in-depth discussions on the following key topics: (i) illicit financial flows; (ii) the impact of money laundering in financial stability; (iii) synergies between financial integrity issues and other Fund policies and work; (iv) the Fund’s collaboration with key partners in the AML/CFT global policy architecture; and (v) stakeholders’ views of the effectiveness of the Fund’s AML/CFT engagement.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This report follows up on the impact of the historic $650 billion 2021 SDR allocation on the global economy, documenting IMF members' use of the allocation and assessing its economic effects. The report finds that the allocation was beneficial for the global economy, helping meet the long-term global need for reserves and supporting market confidence. Members used the allocation mostly to increase international reserve buffers, with some emerging market and developing countries also using it to meet fiscal and external financing needs. While SDR interest costs have increased, members’ capacity to service SDR obligations remains generally adequate. Members’ use of the allocation was mostly in line with Fund advice, and the transparency and accountability of SDR holdings and use has been broadly appropriate, although some gaps remain. Voluntary SDR channeling from economically stronger to more vulnerable members has helped amplify the benefits of the allocation.