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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Discourse and Fiscal Policy
Yongquan Cao
,
Era Dabla-Norris
, and
Enrico Di Gregorio
We study the supply of fiscal ideas leveraging thousands of electoral platforms from 65 countries in the Manifesto Project to link how political parties discuss fiscal policy with fiscal outcomes. We provide three sets of results. First, fiscal discourse has become increasingly favourable to higher government spending since at least the 1990s in advanced and emerging economies and across the political spectrum. This pattern does not track survey trends in voter preferences, suggesting that parties have played a role in shifting the focus of political campaigns to fiscal issues to win over voters. Second, fiscal discourse turns conservative under more adverse fiscal conditions, including in the aftermath of debt surges and after the adoption of fiscal rules, but only to a limited extent. Third, over the medium-run, relative discourse changes in favor of government expansion and away from fiscal restraint are followed by higher fiscal deficits. Together, our results suggest that adverse shifts in the supply of fiscal ideas could add to fiscal pressures over time.
Keywords:
Fiscal Discourse; Fiscal Policy; Elections; Manifesto; trend increase; IMF working paper No. 2024/194; survey trend; expansion discourse; Government debt management; Fiscal rules; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Use of SDRs in the Acquisition of Hybrid Capital Instruments of the Prescribed Holders
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
On May 10, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board approved the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) for the acquisition of hybrid capital instruments issued by prescribed holders. This new use of SDRs, which adds to seven already authorized prescribed SDR operations, is subject to a cumulative limit of SDR 15 billion to minimize liquidity risks. The Executive Board also established a strong expectation that contributors channeling SDRs to prescribed holders under such capital contributions have Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs) in place to ensure sufficient liquidity and equitable distribution of potential SDR exchanges into currencies. A review of the proposed use is expected to be conducted when cumulative hybrid capital contributions surpass SDR 10 billion or two years after the authorization, whichever comes first.
Keywords:
Special Drawing Right; Hybrid Capital Instrument; Voluntary Trading Arrangement; Reserve Asset; SDR channeling; Prescribed Holders; IMF members channeling SDR; capital instrument; use of SDR; prescribed SDR operation; transparency policy; Reserve assets; Currencies; Loans; Liquidity risk; International monetary system; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Statement by the Managing Director on the FY 2025 Work Program of the Executive Board Executive Board Meeting March 8, 2024
International Monetary Fund
This Executive Board Work Program (BWP) for FY 2025 (May 2024 to April 2025) is the first since the Executive Board has started to pilot a new strategic cycle, which aims at incorporating Directors’ broader views on work priorities at an earlier stage in the planning process for the fiscal year. Highlevel costing indicators are also included for non-recurring items based on a pilot costing exercise. The BWP focuses on supporting the membership in responding to current challenges through prompt and tailored policy advice, financial assistance, and support for debt restructuring and capacity development.1 It ensures that the Board can continue to closely monitor economic and financial developments and discuss macro policy responses. The BWP also provides opportunities to deliberate on key Fund policies and operations. The BWP will need to stay flexible to prioritize the membership’s changing needs while operating within the Fund’s constrained budget environment.
Keywords:
executive board executive board meeting; statement by the managing director; Fund policy; debt vulnerability; Policy advice; IEO evaluation; Financial sector stability; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Central Bank Digital Currencies in the Middle East and Central Asia
Serpil Bouza
,
Bashar Hlayhel
,
Thomas Kroen
,
Marcello Miccoli
,
Borislava Mircheva
,
Greta Polo
,
Sahra Sakha
, and
Yang Yang
Against the backdrop of a rapidly digitalizing world, there is a growing interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) among central banks, including in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) region. This paper aims to support ME&CA policymakers in examining key questions when considering the adoption of a CBDC while underscoring the importance of country-specific analyses. This paper does not provide recommendations on CBDC issuance. Instead, it frames the discussion around the following key questions: What is a CBDC? What objectives do policymakers aim to achieve with the issuance of a CBDC? Which inefficiencies in payment systems can CBDCs address? What are the implications of CBDC issuance for financial stability and central bank operational risk? How can CBDC design help achieve policy objectives and mitigate these risks? The paper provides preliminary answers to these questions at the regional level. A survey of IMF teams and public statements from ME&CA policymakers confirm that promoting financial inclusion and making payment systems more efficient (domestic and cross-border) are the top priorities in the region. Payment services through CBDCs, if offered at a lower cost than existing alternatives, could spur competition in the payment market and help increase access to bank accounts, improve financial inclusion, and update legacy technology platforms. CBDCs may also help improve the efficiency of cross-border payment services, especially if designed to address frictions arising from a lack of payment system interoperability, complex processing of compliance checks, long transaction chains, and weak competition. At the same time, CBDCs could negatively impact bank profitability while introducing a substantial operational burden for central banks. However, the exact economic and financial impacts of CBDCs need further study and would depend on estimates of CBDC demand, which are uncertain and country- dependent. CBDC issuance and adoption is a long journey that policymakers should approach with care. Policymakers need to analyze carefully whether a CBDC serves their country’s objectives and whether the expected benefits outweigh the potential costs, in addition to risks for the financial system and operational risks for the central bank.
Keywords:
central; bank; digital; currency; CBDC implementation; CBDC design; CBDC uptake; monetary policy pass-through; market power; CBDC issuance; Central Bank digital currencies; Payment systems; Financial inclusion; Digital financial services; Commercial banks; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2024: Rebuild, Revive, Renew
International Monetary Fund
The global economy has shown remarkable resilience, and appears headed for a soft landing. But buffers have been eroded, growth prospects are lackluster, and vulnerable countries are at risk of falling further behind. While inflation has fallen, it remains above target in many countries. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to: (i) rebuild buffers; (ii) revive medium-term growth; and (iii) renew the IMF’s commitment to ensure that our policies, lending toolkit, and governance are fit for purpose. Central banks need to finish the job on inflation, carefully managing its descent to target. With a soft landing in sight, policymakers’ focus needs to shift to fiscal consolidation to safeguard public finances. Reviving growth prospects will require accelerating structural reforms and joint efforts by countries to tackle transformational challenges. Firmly grounded in its mandate, working with its members, and in partnership with other international organizations, the IMF will continue to serve its members with policy advice, financial lifelines, and capacity development to help safeguard their economic and financial stability, a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
Policy agenda; IMF surveillance; IMF-WTO dialogue; global Policy agenda; quota resource; lending capacity; Fiscal consolidation; Inclusive growth; Financial sector stability; Financial sector risk; Artificial intelligence; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
On March 20, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place somewhat ahead of the standard two-year cycle, in view of the imminent attainment of the current indicative medium-term indicative target of SDR 25 billion for the first time. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. The review was based on the assessment framework established in 2010, which uses an indicative range for precautionary balances, linked to a forward-looking measure of total IMF non-concessional credit, to guide decisions on adjusting the medium-term target over time. While financial risks remain high, they are broadly unchanged from the last review, taking into account the further accumulation of reserves and strengthening of some risk mitigants. Against this background, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and increase the minimum floor from SDR 15 billion to SDR 20 billion. The Board also supported maintaining the biennial review cycle, with earlier reviews if warranted by developments that could materially affect the adequacy of precautionary balances.
Keywords:
Non-concessionary; Lending; Risks; Reserves; Credit; Mitigation; Provisioning; management framework; income risk; concentration risk; Fund credit; I. financial risks; demand scenario; lending portfolio; Credit risk; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Market risk; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Interim Guidance Note on Mainstreaming Gender at The IMF
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This interim note provides general guidance on the operationalization of the IMF’s Strategy Toward Mainstreaming Gender. It offers a comprehensive overview of how IMF staff can integrate macrocritical gender issues into the IMF’s core areas of surveillance, lending, and capacity development. Key topics include i) identifying and assessing macrocritical gender gaps; ii) the “light touch” and “deep dive” approaches; iii) early insights on integrating gender into IMF-supported programs; iv) capacity development on gender or with a gender lens; v) synergies with other workstreams and vi) the importance of collaboration. It also includes summaries and links to relevant tools, databases, IMF staff reports, and relevant literature.
Keywords:
Gender; Equality; Inclusion; Surveillance; Lending; Capacity Development; Fiscal Policy; Labor Market; Macroeconomics/Macroeconomic Policy; transparency policy; gender-disaggregated analysis; IMF country office; gender wage gap; implementation capacity; SPR staff; IMF strategy Toward Mainstreaming Gender; labor force participation; IMF team; IMF gender; equal pay; Gender inequality; Women; Gender diversity; Income inequality; Financial inclusion; Global
Cover Policy Papers
List of IMF Member Countries with Delays in Completion of Article IV Consultations or Mandatory Financial Stability Assessments Over 18 Months
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
In accordance with the Executive Board Decision No. 15106-(12/21), the Fund will publish on its external website a list of member countries whose Article IV consultations or mandatory financial stability assessments have been delayed by more than 18 months, as of December 15, 2023, since the expected deadline for conclusion. The latest version of this list, as shown in Appendix I, will be published on the Fund’s external website on or after Tuesday, January 2, 2024.
Keywords:
Mandatory Financial stability assessment; delays in completion; transparency policy; list of IMF member country; Financial stability assessment
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Framework for Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper reviews the framework for Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance, which is a key element of the policies that govern the requirements for Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes, aimed at ensuring high-quality data for economic analysis and policy advice. The Data Adequacy Assessment requires staff to assess, in the context of Article IV consultations, the adequacy of data provided to the Fund for surveillance purposes, the implications of data inadequacies for surveillance, and the need for corrective measures. In line with the recommendation of the Independent Evaluation Office’s report “Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF: An IEO Evaluation” and previous guidance provided by the IMF Executive Board, this paper introduces a new framework to prepare the Data Adequacy Assessment, ensuring greater objectivity and granularity in the assessment. Data adequacy will become more prominent in the surveillance discussions by including a new Data Issues Annex in the staff report, which will replace the current Statistical Issues Appendix in the Informational Annex. The new framework will facilitate the policy dialogue with country authorities on macro-critical data issues and enhance the integration of surveillance and capacity development.
Keywords:
Data; Macroeconomic and Financial Statistics; Surveillance; Capacity Development; Article IV consultation; Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance; Macroeconomic and Financial Analysis; DAA questionnaire; DAA framework; policy dialogue; IMF's transparency policy; data provision; Government finance statistics; Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus (SDDS+); Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Financial statistics; Global
Cover Policy Papers
IMF and World Bank Approach to Cross-Border Payments Technical Assistance
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
and
World Bank
The G20 had made enhancing cross-border payments a priority. Faster, cheaper, more transparent and more inclusive cross-border payment services have the potential to be transformative for citizens and economies across the world. The Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-Border Payments, launched in 2020, is the first attempt by the international community to address the challenges faced by cross-border payments in a holistic way. A key foundational element in the Roadmap was the publication by the FSB of 11 quantitative targets to define the Roadmap’s aims and create accountability. Technical Assistance (TA) plays a critical role in helping achieve the Roadmap targets. TA relates closely to, and builds on, the IMF’s and World Bank’s respective missions. This paper outlines a multi-year strategy to provide TA in order to meet the cross-border payments targets. The paper (1) details the important role TA plays in achieving the Roadmap targets; (2) summarizes stocktakes conducted by the IMF and World Bank of recent and ongoing TA supporting cross-border payments; and (3) explains the IMF’s and World Bank’s approaches to cross-border payments TA. The IMF and World Bank commit to collaborating, coordinating, and complementing each other on cross-border payments TA wherever possible and appropriate at country/project level.
Keywords:
Cross-border payments; stocktake; technical assistance; payment systems; IMF TA approach; strengthening World Bank TA; IMF TA mission; TA program; IMF-World Bank; TA mission; cross-border payments TA; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Remittances; Central Bank digital currencies; Global