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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents The Gambia’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Economic activity continued to recover robustly. Inflation eased but remains well above the central bank’s medium-term objective. Following the adoption of a new foreign exchange policy, the wedge between the official and parallel market exchange rates has largely closed. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions. Performance under program has been satisfactory. Continued implementation of the reforms will help address medium- and long-term macroeconomic challenges and catalyze additional financing from development partners and the private sector. The central bank will maintain a tight monetary policy stance to ensure that inflation firmly declines. It will also continue close implementation of the recently introduced foreign exchange policy to prevent reoccurrence of forex shortages and any wedge with the parallel market. Finally, structural reforms will be pursued and accelerated, particularly on revenue administration, public financial management, state-owned enterprises management, governance, and business environment.
Giacomo Magistretti
and
Iglika Vassileva
As a small open economy, Bulgaria benefits from economic exchanges with global partners. However, after a boost before the Global Financial Crisis and EU accession, its integration in global value chains has been growing only modestly in recent years and it remains particularly low when it comes to links with EU partners. To capitalize from the integration with the EU Single Market and exploit the opportunities that will come from joining the euro zone and the Schengen area, Bulgaria should focus on enhancing its non-cost competitiveness by improving its governance and investing in infrastructure and human capital.
Dimitris Drakopoulos
,
Yibin Mu
,
Dmitry Vasilyev
, and
Mauricio Villafuerte
Cross-border payment inefficiencies are a significant barrier to trade both within Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and between LAC and other regions. This paper provides a comprehensive review of historical efforts undertaken by various countries within the LAC region to address these challenges. We also explore the potential of recent financial innovations, such as digital currencies and blockchain technology, to enhance cross-border payments. While new technologies do not substitute for prudent and credible macroeconomic policies, leveraging these technologies can help LAC countries reduce transaction costs and times, thus enhancing economic efficiency and fostering deeper regional and global trade relationships.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has implemented expanded and comprehensive transparency practices in a number of areas, notably related to the primary mandate of price stability and the shared mandate of financial stability. This reflects the BAM’s public commitment to transparency anchored in the new 2019 BAM Law and articulated as a strategic orientation under the quinquennial plan for 2019-2023. This level of transparency enabled the BAM to gain the noteworthy trust of the stakeholders met by the mission and to safeguard its autonomy.
Ms. Rina Bhattacharya
International oil producers have discovered commercially recoverable petroleum reserves of around 11 billion barrels that promise to transform Guyana's agricultural and mining economy into an oil powerhouse, while hopefully helping to diversify the non-oil economy. Oil production presents a momentous opportunity to boost inclusive growth and diversify the economy providing resources to address human development needs and infrastructure gaps. At the same time, it presents important policy challenges relating to effective and prudent management of the nation’s oil wealth. This study focusses on one of these challenges: the appropriate monetary policy and exchange rate framework for Guyana as it transitions to a major oil exporter.
Mr. Simon T Gray
Some central banks have maintained overvalued official exchange rates, while unable to ensure that supply of foreign exchange meets legitimate demand for current account transactions at that price. A parallel exchange rate market develops, in such circumstances; and when the spread between the official and parallel rates is both substantial and sustained, price levels in the economy typically reflect the parallel market exchange rate. “Recognizing reality” by allowing economic agents to use a market clearing rate benefits economic activity without necessarily leading to more inflation. But a unified, market-clearing exchange rate will not stabilize without a supportive fiscal and monetary context. A number of country case studies are included; my thanks to Jie Ren for pulling together all the data for the country case studies, and the production of the charts.
Wouter Bossu
,
Mr. Masaru Itatani
, and
Arthur D. P. Rossi
This paper analyzes the legal foundations of central bank digital currency (CBDC) under central bank and monetary law. Absent strong legal foundations, the issuance of CBDC poses legal, financial and reputational risks for central banks. While the appropriate design of the legal framework will up to a degree depend on the design features of the CBDC, some general conclusions can be made. First, most central bank laws do not currently authorize the issuance of CBDC to the general public. Second, from a monetary law perspective, it is not evident that “currency” status can be attributed to CBDC. While the central bank law issue can be solved through rather straithforward law reform, the monetary law issue poses fundmental legal policy challenges.
Antoine Berthou
,
John Jong-Hyun Chung
,
Kalina Manova
, and
Charlotte Sandoz
We examine the gains from globalization in the presence of firm heterogeneity and potential resource misallocation. We show theoretically that without distortions, bilateral and export liberalizations increase aggregate welfare and productivity, while import liberalization has ambiguous effects. Resource misallocation can either amplify, dampen or reverse the gains from trade. Using model-consistent measures and unique new data on 14 European countries and 20 industries in 1998-2011, we empirically establish that exogenous shocks to export demand and import competition both generate large aggregate productivity gains. Guided by theory, we provide evidence consistent with these effects operating through reallocations across firms in the presence of distortions: (i) Both export and import expansion increase average firm productivity, but the former also shifts activity towards more productive firms, while the latter acts in reverse; (ii) Both export and import exposure raise the productivity threshold for survival, but this cut-off is not a sufficient statistic for aggregate productivity; (iii) Efficient institutions, factor and product markets amplify the gains from import competition but dampen those from export access.
Mr. Alexander Culiuc
The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while expenditure switching is delayed by nominal rigidities and other frictions. The paper hypothesizes that the overshooting phase—observed early in the depreciation episode and driven by the balance sheet effect—is largely irrelevant for expenditure switching, which is more closely aligned with ex-post equilibrium depreciation. Given this, larger real exchange rate overshooting should signal a relatively stronger balance sheet effect. Empirical findings support this hypothesis: (i) overshooting is driven by factors associated with the balance sheet effect (high external debt, low reserves, low trade openness), (ii) overshooting-based measures of the balance sheet effect foreshadow post-depreciation output losses, and (iii) the balance sheet effect is strongest early on, while expenditure switching strengthens over the medium term.
International Monetary Fund
history of exchanging documents with other international organizations and currency unions. The practice of exchanging documents with individual organizations dates back to the 1940s, mostly conducted through bilateral arrangements with other international organizations and currency unions. In 1990, the Fund introduced a framework (the “Transmittal Policy”) for the transmittal of certain Board documents (relating to Article IV consultations, use of Fund resources and, later, technical assistance). The Transmittal Policy has served the institution well, but some gaps have emerged over time. Many of the current bilateral document sharing arrangements were adopted in response to individual organizations’ requests, thus document sharing arrangements have not always been applied uniformly to similar organizations or kept pace with the mandates and needs of the organizations. This has resulted in similar organizations having uneven access to Fund documents. Moreover, the Fund’s Transparency Policy has also evolved and prompt publication of most Board documents is now the norm. The proposals set forth in this paper seek to ensure a consolidated, evenhanded approach to the transmittal of Fund documents to international organizations and currency unions. In particular, this paper proposes several changes that would allow international organizations and currency unions to receive a wider range of documents. This paper also presents a proposal responding to requests by Executive Directors of European Union (EU) countries to expand access to documents and information prior to Board consideration for the European Commission (EC). Staff proposes that access be granted uniformly to the EC and other executive bodies of currency unions that have executive decision-making power over the common economic and monetary policies of currency unions. There is also an interest in more expanded sharing of Fund documents with regional financing arrangements (RFAs) in view of their importance in the Global Financial Safety Net. However, given the unique structure of RFAs and the need to develop a policy framework suited for the needs of both the Fund and RFAs, a proposal for such sharing will be put forward in a separate paper for consideration by the Board.