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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Reported Social Unrest Index: September 2024 Update
Philip Barrett
This is the third update of the reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), describing the evolution of social unrest worldwide since June 2023. It shows that the global incidence of unrest has stayed broadly stable in the last year. However, the global distribution has not been even, with a concentration of major events in Europe and sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, in the Western Hemisphere.
Keywords:
Social unrest; Media coverage; unrest event; RSUI data; unrest index; copyright page; RSUI-defined event; Stock markets; COVID-19; Western Hemisphere; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Recent Challenges to the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the WAEMU: WAEMU
Alain Feler
and
Lawrence Norton
This paper discusses recent challenges in BCEAO monetary policy, from a recent spike in inflation, the persistent erosion of external reserves, and strains in the regional financial market. In response to these shocks, the BCEAO operated via both policy rates and liquidity management, including by shifting from fixed to variable rate auctions. The paper finds that the conduct of monetary policy became progressively more constrained by financial stability and external viability challenges, arguing for enhanced monetary-fiscal policy coordination to help the BCEAO meet its reserves objectives.
Keywords:
BCEAO; WAEMU; monetary policy; CFA franc; BCEAO purchase; conduct of monetary policy; viability challenge; BCEAO refinancing; FX reserve; Liquidity; Central bank policy rate; Securities; Financial sector stability; International reserves; Global; West Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Gender Inequality in the WAEMU: Current Situation and Opportunities
Can Sever
This paper documents the current state of gender inequalities in the WAEMU by focusing on outcomes (health, education, labor market and financial inclusion) and opportunities (economic rights). The findings show that despite significant progress toward gender equality over the last three decades, there are still prevalent gender-based disparities, which prevent women from fulfilling their economic potential. Both empirical and model-based estimates suggest that the WAEMU can reap substantial economic gains by mitigating the existing gender gaps in schooling and labor market outcomes. Hence, achieving gender equality remains a macro-critical goal for the region. Going forward, the need for specific policies supportive of gender equality may vary in each member country, but a multifaceted and holistic approach is needed to unleash the related economic potential in the WAEMU as a whole.
Keywords:
gender inequality; B. gender inequalities in the WAEMU; IMF WAEMU; C. economic gains; WAEMU lag; Gender inequality; Women; Financial inclusion; Gender diversity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Staff Report on Common Policies for Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the West African Economic and Monetary Union
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents 2024 discussions on Common Policies of Member Countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The WAEMU has proved resilient amid significant adverse shocks, maintaining strong growth estimated at 5.1 percent in 2023. Inflation has fallen rapidly from its 2022 peaks and is now back within the 1–3 percent target range. Fiscal policy needs to ensure a credible medium-term commitment to debt sustainability, while keeping deficits consistent with available financing. The financial sector has been resilient so far, but the banking sector’s exposures to governments require a medium-term plan to address the sovereign-bank nexus, while avoiding disruptions in the regional debt market. WAEMU’s prosperity will also depend on maintaining political cohesion, deepening economic integration, and strengthening the institutional framework, and infrastructure. Regional growth prospects would be enhanced by continued efforts to increase common productive capacity in energy, infrastructure, and food resilience, as called for in the WAEMU Commission’s Regional Development Strategy.
Keywords:
WAEMU convergence pact; policy advice; WAEMU institution; WAEMU member country; WAEMU member; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Fiscal consolidation; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fraying Threads: Exclusion and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Mahmoud El-Gamal
This study investigates the factors leading to exclusion and their detrimental impacts in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It employs two-levels of analysis: a macro-level estimation of the influence of exclusion and marginalization on violent conflict, and a micro-level investigation identifying the triggers of exclusion sentiments. We construct statistical summaries from multiple measures of exclusion, producing an overall exclusion index as well as social, economic, and political exclusion sub-indices. Our results show the importance of mitigating exclusion and marginalization within SSA nations, and pinpoint the most effective policy levers that governments may use to minimize destabilizing feelings of exclusion.
Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; Conflict; Social exclusion; Political exclusion; Economic exclusion; exclusion sentiment; IMF working paper No. 24/4; policy lever; conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa; growth effort; Financial soundness indicators; Food security; Climate change
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing Terrorism (AML-CFT) Supervision of the Banking Sector
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This technical note discusses anti-money laundering and combating the financing terrorism (AML-CFT) supervision of the banking sector in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The decision to focus on the AML/CFT supervision of the WAEMU banking sector was based on the remit of the regional authorities; the importance to the regional economy of a well-integrated and well-functioning banking sector; and the results of money laundering and terrorist financing national risk assessments conducted to date in West Africa, which identify banks as relatively high-risk financial institutions. The AML/CFT off-site supervision program feeds into the risk-rating process but is not itself risk-based and communication with supervised entities is insufficient. Feedback to banks as part of off-site supervision should be enhanced, the on-site inspection methodology should be sharpened, and the risk-based approach should be fully implemented. The observations and recommendations in this report are based on discussions with regional and national authorities and the private sector as well as a review of relevant templates.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; IMF finance competitiveness; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; TF risk; World Bank staff; FSAP's finding; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Commercial banks; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Internal controls; Bank supervision; West Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores revamping the West African Economic and Monetary Union’s fiscal framework. The new set of fiscal rules should be improved via various supporting arrangements. Those include an escape clause, and broader mechanisms for assessment, accountability, enforcement, and discipline, as well as possibly additional operational frameworks based on intermediate and complementary targets. The fiscal strategy should also crucially encompass efforts towards increasing domestic revenues. The countries’ debt dynamics were affected not only by the fiscal deficit but also by stock flow adjustments. The level of debt in any given year is a function of the previous year’s debt, fiscal deficit, a nominal growth effect, an exchange rate effect, a guarantees effect, and a residual. Simulations show that bringing stock flow adjustments (SFA) under control is essential to ensure debt stabilization over medium term. The only option to stabilize debt and recover buffers is to stick to the 3 percent fiscal deficit target while addressing the SFA. The simulations indicate that the only scenario consistent with both debt stability and the recovery of some fiscal buffers to cope with future shocks is the baseline scenario, with a deficit target of 3 percent of gross domestic product and elimination of the SFA.
Keywords:
WAEMU inflation; deficit target; inflation DYNAMICS; market borrowing costs; auction market debt; inflation contagion; Inflation; Government debt management; Fiscal rules; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Inclusion in Niger: Challenges and Opportunities: Niger
Yoro Diallo
,
Mr. Arsene Kaho
, and
Can Sever
Financial inclusion can increase economic growth and productivity and reduce poverty and inequality by helping people and firms—particularly SMEs—to save and invest, smooth consumption, and better manage financial risks. This paper highlights Niger’s lag compared to other WAEMU countries in terms of access to and use of formal financial services, including for women and youth, and underscores key demand and supply side challenges to financial inclusion as well as structural impediments. It lays out key priorities for Niger to harness the potential of greater financial inclusion to support the country’s development agenda, including efforts to tackle low financial literacy, promote digitization, and address informality.
Keywords:
Financial Inclusion; Financial Institutions; Niger; Niger's lag; development agenda; Niger banking sector; MFI sector NPL ratio; BCEAO MFI; IMF staff calculation; Digital financial services; Digital currencies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment Report on the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision: West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment Report on the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The BCEAO has conducted a comprehensive reform during the past five years. The regulatory and prudential framework were aligned with international standards and the conditions for supervision have been strengthened, although the efforts must be continued (liquidity ratio/net stable funding ratio and tools for monitoring liquidity, transfers of ownership, acquisitions of holdings, guidelines on nonperforming claims, and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism—AML-CFT). The transition to Basel III has made it possible to incorporate additional capital requirements, while the rules applicable to credit institutions were upgraded with the 2017 publication of four circulars on governance, risk management, internal supervision, and compliance.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; WAMU banking commission; market infrastructure; FSAP assessment's finding; banking landscape; Market risk; Credit; Bank legislation; Credit risk; Operational risk; West Africa; Global; Africa; Maghreb; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Systemic Risks and Macroprudential Policy Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Since the 2008 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), the financial sector of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has undergone major changes that have altered its risk profile. Three structural changes have played a key role since the 2008 FSAP: (i) the financial sector has grown significantly; (ii) regional banking groups have become dominant; and (iii) the high concentration of bank portfolios in sovereign exposures, which accounted for an average of 31 percent of banking assets at end-2020, are almost triple the level observed in 2004. These changes have altered the structure of systemic risks and vulnerabilities and raised the need for implementing reforms to strengthen the effectiveness of the macroprudential policy and banking supervision frameworks.
Keywords:
Basel-type liquidity ratios; contagion risk; bank portfolio; WAEMU bank holding; risk profile; IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; bank assets; verifiable liquidity indicator; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Systemic risk; Commercial banks; Financial sector risk; West Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; North Africa