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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 833 items for :

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  • Middle East and Central Asia x
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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Uzbekistan: Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy and Annual Borrowing Plan
Marie S Kim
,
Lilia Razlog
,
Juan Carlos Vilanova
, and
Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9–20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the authorities on the use of the Medium-term Debt Management Strategy Analytical tool (MTDS AT) and ABP AT. The mission presented its main findings and recommendations to the authorities and left a draft report at the end of the mission.
Keywords:
Annual Borrowing Plan; Debt Management Strategy; Local Currency Government Securities; Medium-term Debt Strategy; Ministry of Economy; Finance; Technical Assistance; Uzbekistan; debt transparency; debt portfolio; CD recipient; IMF's Monetary; investor relation function; Government debt management; Securities markets; Government securities
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Azerbaijan: Technical Assistance Report-Modernizing Central Bank Communication
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report presents an analysis of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan's (CBA) communication framework and offers recommendations for enhancement. The technical assistance mission, led by the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department, aimed to modernize the CBA's communication strategies to align with international best practices. The findings indicate that while the CBA has made significant progress in external communications, there are areas for improvement, particularly in formalizing communication processes and enhancing message clarity. Recommendations include strengthening the role of the Communications Division, adopting a proactive communication policy, and improving the monetary policy communication cycle. These changes are expected to elevate the CBA's communication to a policy tool that supports its objectives of price and financial stability.
Keywords:
Central Bank; Communication; Monetary Policy; Transparency; Inflation Targeting; Stakeholders; Capacity Building; Policy Framework; Institutional Strategy; Communication Division; Azerbaijan.; CBA monetary policy press release; C. communications management; monetary policy department; B. Communication cycle; communication framework; CBA flagship policy publication; Monetary policy communication; Social networks; Financial sector stability; Central bank policy rate; Monetary policy frameworks; Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Estimating the Impact of Digital Money on Cross-Border Flows: Scenario Analysis Covering the Intensive Margin
Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Melih Firat
, and
Hector Perez-Saiz
Digital money and digital payments innovations have the potential for improving cross-border payments by reducing costs, enhancing speed, and improving transparency. This note performs an empirical analysis of the potential impact of digital money on the volume and transaction costs of cross-border payments, with a focus on the short-term intensive margin. The market of cross-border payments is very large, with retail transactions having a low share of the total but the highest transaction costs, particularly for remittances. Our illustrative scenarios assume an estimated 60 percent reduction in transaction costs and short-term elasticities to changes in costs estimated from remittances data. The results show two outcomes. First, the cross-border volume increases could be sizable for countries that are large remittance recipients and face expensive transaction costs. Second, even with a large drop in transaction costs, the short-term rise in global cross-border transaction volumes could be limited as a result of the low transaction costs of the wholesale segment. Moving outside the short-term intensive margin, the impact could potentially be much larger as digital currencies and other digital payments innovations—together with tokenization of assets on programmable platforms—could move the financial system into a transformative new era by fostering financial development and promoting further inclusion across borders.
Keywords:
Digital money; cross-border payments; transaction costs; digital payments; payments innovation; cross-border payment; scenario analysis; IMF Fintech Brownbag Seminar; IMF seminar; Remittances; Central Bank digital currencies; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Correspondent banking; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that after reaching 5.1 percent in 2023, Kazakhstan’s economic growth has remained robust in 2024, and inflation has continued to decline gradually. The banking sector remains resilient amid continued rapid consumer credit growth. In the medium term, growth is projected to stabilize at about 3½ percent, while inflation would ease. Recurrent fiscal underperformance requires measures to avoid fiscal procyclicality and strengthen the fiscal policy framework. Such measures would also help to meet the authorities’ objective of fiscal consolidation and maintain a balanced external position. Fiscal policy effectiveness also requires public sector data that are better aligned with international standards and a more rules-based and transparent policy framework, including by reducing off-budget spending and the continued reliance on discretionary transfers from the National Fund. Structural reform implementation remains slow, with the state footprint growing in some areas, while higher economic growth, diversification and resilience will be important in the current environment, including to address increasingly pressing challenges from climate change.
Keywords:
IMF TA; IMF's holding; money-market development; inflation pressure; central bank communications; Policy effectiveness; NBK policy rate; oil revenue; IMF's transparency policy; Fiscal stance; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the experiences of other emerging markets in developing local capital markets, and describes the challenges faced in the development of such markets. Efforts are ongoing to develop the local currency bond market, supported by IMF technical assistance. Initiatives are underway to enhance access to the domestic equity market and increase its depth and liquidity. Still underdeveloped debt markets and systemic excess liquidity have driven a hold-to-maturity culture among investors, as several of the preconditions for liquid secondary markets are not met. Improving the government debt issuance strategy would enhance overall transparency and help increase secondary market liquidity. The review shows establishing a functioning money and local currency bond market remains a critical first step in successful capital markets' development, while several policy tools beyond tax incentives can be employed to support participation in local markets. Increasing the presence of life insurance companies and reducing information asymmetries would help spur demand from a broader set of institutional investors.
Keywords:
capital markets incentives program; private sector employment; employment growth; SME growth; development in Oman; Digitalization; Capital markets; Stock markets; Securities markets; Global; South Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Market Power in the Middle East
Yevgeniya Korniyenko
,
Ahmed K Tohamy
, and
Weining Xin
The Middle East (ME) is often perceived as region with rentier economies and uncompetitive markets. Evidence of market power in the region however is scant. In this paper, we ask the following three questions: Is the ME uniquely uncompetitive? Has the evolution of market power in the region traced the global rise in market power? What government policies and actions influenced the market power in the region and can taxes be a way to even the playing field? To answer these questions, we utilize comprehensive firm-level data from Compustat between 2004 and 2022 and employ two methods for estimating markups (production function and cost-share approach). We document that market power among listed firms in the ME is higher than in the US, but on a downward trend. We find that the value-added tax (VAT) reforms introduced by some Gulf states from 2018 to 2022 resulted in a reduction of market power, an additional benefit beyond increasing fiscal space. While policymakers should continue to use available regulatory levers to achieve economic efficiency and a level playing field, VAT could be considered as an alternative instrument.
Keywords:
Middle East; Market Power; Markup; Firm Behavior; market power in the Middle East; markups estimate; sample representativeness; markups in GCC country; markups dynamics; Value-added tax; Competition; Inflation; Oil sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of a Quantitative Target and a Reform Target-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Tajikistan’s First Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and Request for Modification of a Quantitative Target and a Reform Target. The PCI aims to anchor macroeconomic policies and support structural reform implementation to maintain macro-financial stability and foster more sustainable and inclusive growth. The fiscal deficit is projected to remain within the long-term anchor of 2.5 percent of gross domestic product, ensuring a continued decline in public debt. Policies should aim to strengthen resilience against external shocks and address structural constraints to attaining more sustainable and inclusive growth. Improving revenue mobilization and spending efficiency is critical to increasing space for development priorities. Monetary policy should remain vigilant and manage liquidity proactively in the context of large foreign exchange inflows and strong credit growth, with the exchange rate playing a greater role as a shock absorber. Pressing ahead with broad-based state-owned enterprise reforms is critical to mitigate fiscal risks and create space for private sector led growth.
Keywords:
NBT regulation; asset declaration regime; procurement authorities; NBT Law; government approval; Government debt management; Fiscal risks; Monetary base; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes key trends in the country’s existing financial sector and finds that while the Mauritanian banking sector is highly profitable, it fails to facilitate broader financial services and access, resulting in limited contribution to economic growth and inclusion. It also identifies the prevalence of family-owned banks, lack of trust, weak governance, and insufficient institutions as the major factors leading to these macro-level outcomes and discusses policies to address them and enhance financial sector development and boost inclusion. From a financial sector development perspective, Mauritania would be better off with a consolidated banking sector with stronger, more resilient institutions. Fewer universal banks with robust provisioning frameworks are better equipped to manage credit risks, thereby increasing their capacity to lend to a broader range of private-sector actors. From the institutional perspective, existing financial infrastructure institutions need to be strengthened and new ones need to be established. Forceful banking supervision with strong information systems can effectively monitor and mitigate connected lending practices among many family-owned banks.
Keywords:
bank Private-Sector; Efficiency-Access and Depth Gap; banks' provision; intermediation proxy; credit to GDP; Financial sector development; Financial sector; Credit; Financial inclusion; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Confidence-Financial Inclusion Nexus in the Caucasus and Central Asia?
Kalin I Tintchev
and
Kady Keita
We document novel evidence that confidence in macrofinancial stability has a positive impact on financial inclusion in CCA countries and more broadly. This channel is particularly important for CCA countries, with confidence gains of 1 unit leading to 0.7 unit improvement in financial inclusion. Institutional factors such as level of governance and reliance on transparent policy rules and robust financial safety nets explain a large fraction of the variability in confidence in the region. We find that governance reforms are critical for deepening financial inclusion while the impact of inflation targeting, fiscal rules and deposit insurance schemes is positive and material only when governance levels exceed certain thresholds.
Keywords:
Financial inclusion; confidence; governance; inflation targeting; fiscal rules; deposit insurance; inclusion Nexus; governance reform; CCA country; governance level; governance gap; Fiscal rules; Financial sector development; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus