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Saioa Armendariz
,
Carlos de Resende
,
Alice Fan
,
Gianluigi Ferrucci
,
Bingjie Hu
,
Sadhna Naik
, and
Can Ugur
This paper examines competitiveness and productivity in the Baltics. Focusing on recent developments, it asks why Russia’s war in Ukraine led to a prolonged recession and strong decline in competitiveness in Estonia, while Latvia and Lithuania shielded their economies more effectively. The paper starts by documenting a deterioration in export performance across the region. Using a constant share decomposition, it finds that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia’s declining export share has been mainly linked to a reduction in the ‘intensive margin’—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. Multivariate filtering techniques and estimates of the real effective exchange rates based on historical productivity trends, consistent with Balassa-Samuelson, confirm that differences in long-term total factor productivity growth have affected external competitiveness. While Estonia’s post-GFC slowdown in productivity growth and real exchange rate appreciation have eroded its competitive edge, Latvia and Lithuania have shown greater resilience, aided by more balanced real effective exchange rates and, for Lithuania, stronger corporate balance sheets. A micro-econometric analysis further reveals that resource misallocation, particularly in the services sector, has been a key driver of declining productivity in the region. These findings underscore the need for targeted reforms to improve allocative efficiency, boost productivity, and restore competitiveness in the Baltic region.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyses the implications of global value chains (GVC) participation for Latvia’s competitiveness and exposure to risks. Using a structural model, it assesses Latvia’s competitiveness through different real effective exchange rate (REER) measures and examines the main factors behind differences in the measures. Based on this analysis, the paper suggests policy options to strengthen Latvia’s competitiveness. The paper also estimates the impact of an appreciation of the GVC related REER measure on value added export growth and real GDP growth, and finds sizable effects, suggesting that a rapid labor market tightening could lead to erosion in competitiveness and reduction in growth. Finally, trade tension induced tariff hikes may have significant cost for Latvia, especially in terms of value added produced in the country. Trade tension induced tariff hikes are likely to have moderate costs for Latvia in terms of value added produced in the country. In this regard, policies aimed at enhancing product sophistication or quality and export market diversification could mitigate Latvia’s exposure to trade shocks in GVCs.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia’s government revenues overperformed in 2017, buoyed by strong economic activity and wage growth. Nonetheless, the 2017 general government structural balance recorded a deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP, which resulted in a positive fiscal impulse rendering fiscal policy procyclical. Despite the suspension of activities of Latvia’s third largest bank on money laundering concerns, the banking system remains well capitalized and liquid, with capital-to-risk-weighted assets of 22.4 percent and liquid assets exceeding 80 percent of short-term liabilities at end-March 2018. Deleveraging of both households and nonfinancial corporations continued, with household debt to income now at half of its pre-crisis levels.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The euro area (EA) bank resolution and crisis management arrangements have been strengthened considerably over recent years, but work remains to complete and unify the regime. The adoption of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) and the Single Resolution Mechanism Regulation (SRMR), and the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) provide a foundation to deal with problem banks. The authorities remain committed to completing the banking union through the establishment of a backstop for the Single Resolution Fund (SRF) and a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) and other measures, many of which are in line with recommendations in this report.
Moisés J. Schwartz
and
Shinji Takagi

Abstract

This volume book brings together nine background papers prepared for an evaluation by the IMF Independent Evaluation Office of “the IMF and the crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal.” It presents an authoritative work on the evolving relationship between the IMF and the euro area, a common currency area founded in 1999 consisting of advanced, highly integrated economies in Europe. The euro area, or any common currency area for that matter, has posed challenges to the IMF’s operational activities as its Articles of Agreement contain no provision for joint membership. The challenges became intense when a series of crises erupted in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal from 2009 to 2011, and the Fund was called upon to help intervene by offering its financing and crisis management expertise. The IMF found itself in uncharted territory where there was no precedent or established procedure. The chapters, many of which are prepared by prominent academics and former senior IMF officials who are thoroughly familiar with internal procedures, discuss various aspects of the IMF’s engagement with the euro area, including precrisis surveillance, how key decisions were made, how the IMF collaborated with European institutions, and how it designed and implemented its lending programs with the three crisis countries. The book gives prominence to governance-related issues, given the large voting share (of more than 20 percent) within the IMF of euro area members and the subsequent public perception that the IMF treated the euro area more favorably than it does developing and emerging market members. The approaches are both cross-cutting and country-based. Some chapters deal with issues related to the euro area as a whole, while others focus on how the Fund engaged with individual euro area countries. The book contains a statement on the IEO evaluation by the IMF Managing Director and a Summing Up of the Executive Board discussion held in July 2016.

International Monetary Fund
Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is key to understanding the macroeconomic outlook, identifying vulnerabilities, and tracing the transmission of potential shocks and policies. This paper reviews the use of balance sheet analysis in the Fund’s bilateral surveillance and introduces some practical examples of how it can be deepened. Recent evaluations of IMF surveillance––including the 2014 TSR––have emphasized the importance of strengthening balance sheet analysis and coverage of macro-financial issues. This paper is a first step that highlights useful examples of such analysis conducted by staff over the last decade, documents the data and tools that have been used, and mentions some limitations. In addition, it discusses recent improvements in the coverage and quality of balance sheet data through initiatives launched in the wake of the global crisis, as well as key remaining gaps, addressing which requires international collaboration.
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler
,
Jose M Garrido
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Andreas Jobst
,
Mr. Kenneth H Kang
,
Dmitriy Kovtun
,
Ms. Yan Liu
,
Mr. Dermot Monaghan
, and
Ms. Marina Moretti
Europe’s banking system is weighed down by high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), which are holding down credit growth and economic activity. This discussion note uses a new survey of European country authorities and banks to examine the structural obstacles that discourage banks from addressing their problem loans. A three pillared strategy is advocated to remedy the situation, comprising: (i) tightened supervisory policies, (ii) insolvency reforms, and (iii) the development of distressed debt markets.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation assesses the IMF’s response to the global financial and economic crisis, focusing on the period September 2008 through 2013. It assesses the IMF’s actions to help contain the crisis and navigate a global recovery, assist individual economies to cope with the impact of the crisis, and identify and warn about future risks.

International Monetary Fund
The Research Summaries in the March 2014 Research Bulletin focus on efficiency of health expenditure (Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli) and employment growth in European Union countries (Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financial Interconnectedness” (Co-Pierre Georg and Camelia Minoiu). The Research Bulletin also includes a listing of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Information on the IMF Economic Review—the research journal of the IMF—is also provided.