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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 37 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Lithuania, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Prometheus Unbound: What Makes Fintech Grow?
Serhan Cevik
The rise of financial technologies—fintech—could have transformative effects on the financial landscape, expanding the reach of services beyond the confines of geography and creating new competitive sources of finance for households and firms. But what makes fintech grow? Why do some countries have more financial innovation than others? In this paper, I use a comprehensive dataset to investigate the emergence and spread of fintech in a diverse panel of 98 countries over the period 2012–2020. This empirical analysis helps ascertain economic, demographic, technological and institutional factors that enable the development of fintech. The magnitude and statistical significance of these factors vary according to the type of fintech instrument and the level of economic development (advanced economies vs. developing countries). Finally, these findings reveal that policies and structural reforms can help promote financial innovation and cultivate fintech ventures—particularly by strengthening technological and institutional infrastructures and reducing cybersecurity threats.
Keywords:
Fintech; financial innovation; technological change; cybersecurity threat; fintech venture; copyright page; government stability foster fintech growth; fintech transaction; Digital financial services; Financial sector development; Population growth; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Competitiveness and Productivity in the Baltics: Common Shocks, Different Implications
Saioa Armendariz
,
Carlos de Resende
,
Alice Fan
,
Gianluigi Ferrucci
,
Bingjie Hu
,
Sadhna Naik
, and
Can Ugur
This paper examines competitiveness and productivity in the Baltics. Focusing on recent developments, it asks why Russia’s war in Ukraine led to a prolonged recession and strong decline in competitiveness in Estonia, while Latvia and Lithuania shielded their economies more effectively. The paper starts by documenting a deterioration in export performance across the region. Using a constant share decomposition, it finds that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia’s declining export share has been mainly linked to a reduction in the ‘intensive margin’—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. Multivariate filtering techniques and estimates of the real effective exchange rates based on historical productivity trends, consistent with Balassa-Samuelson, confirm that differences in long-term total factor productivity growth have affected external competitiveness. While Estonia’s post-GFC slowdown in productivity growth and real exchange rate appreciation have eroded its competitive edge, Latvia and Lithuania have shown greater resilience, aided by more balanced real effective exchange rates and, for Lithuania, stronger corporate balance sheets. A micro-econometric analysis further reveals that resource misallocation, particularly in the services sector, has been a key driver of declining productivity in the region. These findings underscore the need for targeted reforms to improve allocative efficiency, boost productivity, and restore competitiveness in the Baltic region.
Keywords:
Export shares; Competitiveness; Productivity; Baltics; export share; productivity in the Baltic; resource misallocation; productivity trend; TFP dynamics; TFP deceleration; Total factor productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Profitability in Europe: Not Here to Stay
Ruo Chen
,
Vincenzo Guzzo
,
Fazurin Jamaludin
,
Adil Mohommad
,
Ritong Qu
, and
Yueshu Zhao
Slower passthrough of policy interest rate hikes to deposit rates relative to their loan rates has led to sharply wider bank net interest margins. Combined with resilient asset quality, wider net interest margins supported record profits for European banks in 2023. Drawing on historical data from the balance sheets and income statements of over 2,500 European banks, this paper shows that abnormally high profits are expected to fade soon as interest income will decline, once policy rates start being lowered, while higher impairment costs historically have weighed on profits with a lag. Moreover, a number of structural factors that have eroded the performance of European banks in the past two decades have largely remained unaddressed and will continue being a drag on profits and capital. Therefore, policymakers should encourage banks to preserve capital buffers and build resilience to future shocks, while exercising caution when considering taxes on profits or other measures that could divert potential sources of capital from banks.
Keywords:
European banks; bank profits; interest rate margins; asset quality; bank capital; bank taxation.; bank profit; interest rate margin; bank taxation; impairment cost; Bank soundness; Financial statements; Income; Yield curve; Central bank policy rate; Europe; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2023 Review of The Fund's Anti-Money Laundering and Combating The Financing of Terrorism Strategy—Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The background papers support the stocktaking analysis and the proposed way forward for the 2023 review of the IMF's AML/CFT Strategy. The five background papers provide in-depth discussions on the following key topics: (i) illicit financial flows; (ii) the impact of money laundering in financial stability; (iii) synergies between financial integrity issues and other Fund policies and work; (iv) the Fund’s collaboration with key partners in the AML/CFT global policy architecture; and (v) stakeholders’ views of the effectiveness of the Fund’s AML/CFT engagement.
Keywords:
AML/CFT; Anti-money laundering; Money laundering; Terrorism financing; Proliferation financing; Combating the Financing of Terrorism; Financial Stability; Financial Crime; Illicit financial flows; Financial Integrity; CFT issue; CFT framework; addressing IFF; FATF standard; Global AML; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial sector stability; Civil society organizations; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nordic-Baltic Regional Report: Technical Assistance Report-Nordic-Baltic Technical Assistance Project Financial Flows Analysis, AML/CFT Supervision, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
Keywords:
TF risk assessment; colleges participation; TF risk; EU Anti-Money Laundering Authority; supervisory cooperation; information Sharin; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Virtual currencies; Correspondent banking; Internal controls; Financial sector stability; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade, Productivity and (Mis)allocation
Antoine Berthou
,
John Jong-Hyun Chung
,
Kalina Manova
, and
Charlotte Sandoz
We examine the gains from globalization in the presence of firm heterogeneity and potential resource misallocation. We show theoretically that without distortions, bilateral and export liberalizations increase aggregate welfare and productivity, while import liberalization has ambiguous effects. Resource misallocation can either amplify, dampen or reverse the gains from trade. Using model-consistent measures and unique new data on 14 European countries and 20 industries in 1998-2011, we empirically establish that exogenous shocks to export demand and import competition both generate large aggregate productivity gains. Guided by theory, we provide evidence consistent with these effects operating through reallocations across firms in the presence of distortions: (i) Both export and import expansion increase average firm productivity, but the former also shifts activity towards more productive firms, while the latter acts in reverse; (ii) Both export and import exposure raise the productivity threshold for survival, but this cut-off is not a sufficient statistic for aggregate productivity; (iii) Efficient institutions, factor and product markets amplify the gains from import competition but dampen those from export access.
Keywords:
WP; math display; total factor productivity; International trade; export demand; import competition; productivity; allocative efficiency; misallocation; aggregate productivity; resource misallocation; employment share; real value; productivity gain; firm productivity; Exports; Imports; Trade liberalization; Competition; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Do Multi-Sector Bond Funds Pose Risks to Emerging Markets?
Fabio Cortes
and
Luca Sanfilippo
Emerging economies in the post-crisis period increasingly saw portfolio debt inflows from a type of large international investment fund: Multi-Sector Bond Funds (MSBFs). These investors have lacked adequate representation in the literature. This paper constructs a new detailed database from micro-level MSBF emerging market (EM) holdings from 2009:Q4–2018:Q2. Exploiting this data, the paper assesses the risks they pose to the financial stability of specific emerging bond markets. The data shows that MSBFs are highly concentrated–both in their positions and their decision-making. The empirical results further suggest that MSBFs exhibit opportunistic behavior (and more so than other investment funds). In periods of high risk aversion, large MSBF portfolio reallocations out of EMs can be associated with underperformance of the same markets, signaling the importance of monitoring their footprint and better understanding their asset allocation decisions.
Keywords:
WP; fixed income; hard currency; EM asset market; family of funds; EM assets; EM portfolio debt inflow; global bond; Investment funds; mutual funds; emerging markets; portfolio debt flows; contagion; allocation decision; Bonds; Currencies; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Securities markets; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Organize Central Securities Depositories in Developing Markets: Key Considerations
Ms. Froukelien Wendt
,
Peter Katz
, and
Alice Zanza
The key objective of this note is to support authorities in their decision making about the optimal organization of central securities depositories (CSDs) in their country. For the purpose of this note, a CSD is defined as an entity that provides securities accounts, a securities settlement system, and central safekeeping services to market participants, which can be banks and other financial institutions. Authorities in developing markets, in particular central banks, may grapple with two questions: (1) whether to pursue a single CSD to increase market efficiencies and benefit from economies of scale and scope and (2) whether to partake in the governance of the CSD as owner or operator. This note presents seven considerations for authorities to take into account when answering these questions and determining the best model for their country.
Keywords:
FADHTN; HTN; financial market; private sector; single CSD; CSD operation; debt management; cash settlement; CSD operator; ownership structure; fixed cost; BNR authorities; Philippines government; authorization of the CSD; authorities in the Kyrgyz Republic; CSD technology; Central securities depositories; Securities; Government securities; Securities markets; Stock markets; Global; Europe; government securities market; Organize Central Securities depository; ConsiderationsHow-To note; develop market; key ConsiderationsHow-To note; key consideration; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Organizing Central Securities Depositories in Developing Markets—7 Considerations
Ms. Froukelien Wendt
,
Peter Katz
, and
Alice Zanza
Central securities depositories (CSDs) are systemically important entities that are critical for effective implementation of monetary policy, the credibility of a government’s debt management program, collateral management, and safe and efficient securities markets. Authorities in developing markets, in particular central banks, may grapple with the following issues: i) whether to pursue a single CSD for all types of securities to increase market efficiencies and benefit from economies of scale; and ii) whether to partake in the governance of the CSD as owner and/or operator. This paper develops seven considerations that authorities may take into account in addressing these issues and finding the best model for their country. These may point to different solutions for different countries, depending in part on the size of markets, strength of private operators and level of market development.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; private sector; single CSD; CSD operation; Central securities depositories; financial market development; securities; clearing; government securities; settlement system; fixed cost; CSD operator; securities transaction; ownership structure; BNR authorities; CSD function; CSD technology; government securities market; Government securities; Securities markets; Stock markets; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This note presents estimates of potential growth and the output gap in Latvia. The estimates suggest that the output has marked below potential in the early 2000s but the output gap becomes positive and large after EU accession. With unemployment still well above its natural level, the output gap is estimated to be negative in 2012, but is expected to narrow gradually and be closed in the next 3–4 years. Potential growth is expected to be substantially lower than in 2002–07.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; estimate; labor market; output gap estimate; crisis; unemployment gap; vocational education; output gap in Latvia; Output gap; Potential output; Unemployment rate; Labor markets; Europe; Baltics; Global