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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Seychelles: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Second Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Seychelles’ 2024 Article IV Consultation, Second Reviews under the Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria. The government has made considerable progress under the EFF and RSF Arrangements—strengthening fiscal and external buffers, reducing public debt, and enhancing the policy framework to address climate change. Long-term challenges center on the limits to sustainable tourism-based growth, economic diversification, and Seychelles’ high vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The policy framework is guided by the need to preserve macroeconomic and financial sustainability, build fiscal and external buffers, as well as advance prospects for long-term inclusive growth and economic resilience, in line with the objectives under the EFF and RSF. Toward this end, the mission agreed with the authorities on a revised macroeconomic framework and quantitative program targets consistent with the program objectives of steady fiscal consolidation and reduction of public debt over the medium-term.
Keywords:
framework enhancement; Seychellois authorities; government efficiency; tourism sector; government priority; Tourism; Government debt management; Imports; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Lucia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Lucia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The St. Lucian economy is confronted with significant challenges from consecutive external shocks. While still recovering from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to an output collapse in 2020 and 2021 mainly due to a halt in tourism, the war in Ukraine is adding inflation and balance of payments pressures given the dependence on fuel and food imports.
Keywords:
donor government; authorities of St. Lucia; CARTAC TA; debt sustainability outlook; financing constraint; Natural disasters; External sector statistics; Tourism; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Icelandic economy has been severely affected by the pandemic. Sharp tourism contraction and containment measures caused real GDP to plummet by 6.6 percent in 2020. A modest recovery will take hold in 2021. Recovery prospects in the tourism sector depend on control of the epidemic and progress in global and domestic vaccine distribution, spelling a challenging outlook with possibly deep medium-term scarring. Fiscal policy should continue to support the economy for now. Policy buffers accumulated over the last decade provided space for a large fiscal support and accommodated substantial automatic stabilizers. Additional stimulus is planned in 2021 to address still large slack in the economy, mitigate scarring, and provide confidence in the event of downside risks. Medium-term policies should ensure that public debt is firmly on a downward path, while limiting the drag on growth.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; notification band; family support benefit; monetary policy effort; fiscal policy mix; COVID-19; Tourism; Government finance statistics; Financial statistics; Currency markets; Global; Europe
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region and those in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with swift and stringent measures to mitigate its spread and impact but continue to face an uncertain and difficult environment. Oil exporters were particularly hard hit by a “double-whammy” of the economic impact of lockdowns and the resulting sharp decline in oil demand and prices. Containing the health crisis, cushioning income losses, and expanding social spending remain immediate priorities. However, governments must also begin to lay the groundwork for recovery and rebuilding stronger, including by addressing legacies from the crisis and strengthening inclusion.

Keywords:
public health; reopening; rebuilding; oil revenue; OPEC+; REO; oil exporter; MCD country; oil importer; IMF staff calculation; MCD firm; MCD region
Cover IMF Working Papers
New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan
,
Li Zhao
,
Steve Brito
, and
Vivian Parlak
Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the evidence shows that tourism arrivals to the ECCU have been declining slightly while global demand for tourism is on the rise. The objective of this paper is to study the structural determinants of competitiveness for the ECCU, defined as the relative cost advantage over other touristic regions (Di Bella, Lewis, and Martin 2007). Using a gravity model, we show that proximity to North American and European markets is indeed an important competitive advantage for the ECCU. However, despite this advantage, and, in some cases, specialization in high-end tourism, regression analysis shows that arrivals to the ECCU are sensitive to relative prices. Our simulations show that mitigating supply-side constraints would improve the ECCU’s competitiveness and allow the region to regain global market shares.
Keywords:
WP; ECCU; ECCU member; price elasticity; income elasticity; Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU); gravity model; tourism arrivals and expenditure; tourism infrastructure; doing business; governance indicators; tourism inflow; ECCU country; tourism product; tariffs vis; Tourism; Tariffs; Natural disasters; Competition; Caribbean; Global; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Palau
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Article IV Consultation discussions with the Republic of Palau focused on ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability, making potential growth more resilient and sustainable, and preserving financial stability and facilitating credit extension. The consultation discussions also highlight that the main economic policy priorities for Palau are to develop a medium-term fiscal framework and strategy to help manage fiscal risks and the expiration of the Compact grants, to raise public investment, to protect social spending, to make growth more resilient and sustainable through other reforms, and to preserve financial stability and integrity. The current fiscal policy approach is based on the legal requirement to maintain a balanced or surplus cash flow for various parts of the budget. While this fiscal policy strategy has resulted in overall budget surpluses and a decline in net debt, the move to a medium-term fiscal framework and strategy would help Palau to address future challenges.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Palau; GDP; development partner; government; Palauan; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; capital grant; high-value tourism destination; investment plan; Palau's reputation; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Pacific Islands; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the prospects of growth in São Tomé and Príncipe (STP). This case study seeks explanations for STP’s relative under-performance and draws lessons for the future. It compares past economic developments in the islands and recommends policies that could most effectively foster future growth in STP. Country-specific characteristics as well as weak institutions contributed to STP’s relative underperformance since independence. Initial conditions, particularly regarding human capital and natural resources, contributed to STP’s relative underperformance, especially in the first decade after independence. Experience in the four island-states suggests that fiscal discipline, revenue mobilization, and a more active private sector, particularly in the tourism sector, may be key to tap STP’s growth potential. Fiscal discipline is needed to contain the fiscal deficit and bring the debt to a sustainable level. Continuing to strengthen public financial management, including implementing multiannual fiscal framework as recommended by the IMF technical assistance, would help.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; food inflation; STP tourism receipts; inflation dynamics; STP's economy; food price inflation; Loans; Inflation; Nonperforming loans; Arrears; Tourism; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Pacific Islands; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses Panama’s business model founded on its ability to attract international financial, business, and transportation services. Panama has had exceptional growth over recent decades. A growth diagnostic exercise suggests that Panama is well placed to maintain this business model. Higher-quality education, stronger governance, and less bureaucracy will further strengthen Panama’s comparative advantage. Additional analysis suggests that investment will continue to support growth, while the logistics and tourism sectors promise to build further on Panama’s comparative advantage.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; asset; export; foreign direct investment; Colombia; growth fluctuation; Tocumen airport; tourism sector; business cycle; trade linkage; GDP growth; growth model; energy infrastructure; Systemic risk; Macroprudential policy; Tourism; Macroprudential policy instruments; Systemic risk assessment; Global; Central America; South America; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Bahamas: 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The article highlights the economic condition, fiscal policies, external stability, and financial growth strategy of The Bahamas. The economy of The Bahamas showed gradual growth of about 2.5 percent by 2012, but there were challenges for the country. The nation has to rebuild macroeconomic buffers against external imbalances, regulate nonperforming loans, reduce unemployment, and increase the business sector. This assessment is an analysis of The Bahamas’ recent development and forthcoming plans to encounter global threats.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FDI; price; export-import price indices; central bank; Bahamian authorities; e-government portal; general guiding principle; economy faces downside risk; financial asset; CS priority area; Tourism; Public sector; Current account deficits; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, June 2008
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF research summaries on Latin America’s external linkages (by Shaun Roache) and on reaping the benefits of structural reforms (by Stephen Tokarick); regional study on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (by Paul Cashin and Evridiki Tsounta); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during March–April 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 55 No. 2 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; listing of recent external publications by IMF staff; and a call for papers for the Jacques Polak Ninth Annual Research Conference.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF staff paper; draft paper; product market; external shock; global economy model; model issue; product market liberalization; measuring exchange market pressure; Structural reforms; Commodity markets; Tourism; Currency boards; Labor markets; Caribbean; Global; Europe; Central America; Middle East; Eastern Europe; West Africa