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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
,
Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi
,
Chiara Maggi
,
Alexandre Sollaci
,
Martin Stuermer
, and
Petia Topalova
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Keywords:
Commodities; international trade; sanctions; spillovers; prices; geoeconomic fragmentation; trade disruption; price change; commodity producer; net-commodity-importing country; trade fragmentation; Commodity markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Agricultural commodities; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade and Trade Finance in the 2008-09 Financial Crisis
Mr. Thomas William Dorsey
,
Mika Saito
,
Mrs. Armine Khachatryan
,
Ms. Irena Asmundson
, and
Ioana Niculcea
Global merchandise trade sharply declined in late 2008 and early 2009, and some press and financial market reports assigned a large role for the decline to trade finance. However, the available evidence suggests that shocks to trade finance were not the major factor in the decline in trade. Surveys of commercial banks by the IMF and others found that while bank-intermediated trade finance fell in value during the crisis, it fell by less than merchandise trade. As a result, the share of world trade supported by bank-intermediated trade finance increased despite higher pricing margins. Other explanations appear to account for the bulk of the reduction in international trade.
Keywords:
WP; trade; bank; cost of funds; Merchandise trade; trade finance; lending guideline; Merchandise export; Merchandise trade Index; trade growth; trade transaction; Trade finance; Trade in goods; Export credits; Exports; Basel II; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund
Hong Kong has grown strongly as a result of its successful transformation from a manufacturing presence to a services hub over past decades. Executive Directors support the government’s commitment for the Linked Exchange Rate System. Hong Kong’s future as a financial center is linked to its expanding role in mainland intermediation. Although the current fiscal stance is appropriate, some fiscal reforms remain pending. The government is aware of the central importance of Hong Kong’s traditional strengths to its ongoing success.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Hong Kong dollar; article IV consultation; IMF Executive Board; Executive Board discussion; discussion; market flexibility; IMF staff estimate; Hong Kong SAR; Income; Real exchange rates; Current account surpluses; Current account; Capital account; Global; Europe