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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Request for an Arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights Chile’s Request for an Arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. The imbalances built during the pandemic have been largely resolved shifting priorities to supporting stronger, more inclusive and greener medium-term growth. The near-term outlook has improved, primarily due to higher copper prices and prospects for increased lithium production. Chile qualifies for the FCL by virtue of its very strong economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks, and sustained track record of very strong macroeconomic policies. In the context of the still elevated external risks and a stronger near-term baseline outlook, the authorities have requested a reduction in access. They are committed to gradually lowering access depending on external risk developments and intend to continue treating the arrangement as precautionary. The proposed new commitment and cancellation of the current arrangement would have a net positive impact on the IMF’s liquidity position.
Keywords:
FCL arrangement; July monetary policy meeting; gross international reserves; policy rate cut; inflation pressure; Credit; Debt service; Metal prices; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2023: New Directions for Monetary Policy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, March 2023
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation surge; tepid inflation; household inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Gold; Silver; Digitalization; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finanzas y Desarrollo, Marzo de 2023: Nuevos rumbos para la política monetaria
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, March 2023
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation surge; tepid inflation; household inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Gold; Silver; Digitalization; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finances Et Développement, Mars 2023: De nouvelles orientations pour la politique monétaire
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
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Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation surge; tepid inflation; household inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Gold; Silver; Digitalization; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2023: New Directions for Monetary Policy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, March 2023
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation surge; tepid inflation; household inflation expectation; monetary policy committee; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Gold; Silver; Digitalization; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Europe; Caribbean
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2021
World Economic Outlook, October 2021
Recovery During a Pandemic
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex.

Keywords:
global outlook; growth projections; economic outlook; GDP growth; inflation expectation; commodity market development; inflation risk; inflation pressure; policy priority; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; COVID-19; Consumer prices; Global; Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; Central America; South America
Cover Spillover Notes
China's Footprint in Global Commodity Markets
Ms. Christina Kolerus
,
Mr. Papa M N'Diaye
, and
Christian Saborowski
This note assesses empirically the role Chinese activity plays in global commodities markets, showing that the strength of China’s economic activity has a significant bearing on commodity prices, but that the impact differs across commodity markets, with industrial production shocks having a substantial impact on metals and crude oil prices and less so on food prices. The size of the impact on the prices of specific commodities varies with China’s footprint in the market for those commodities; the empirical estimates indicate that, over a one-year horizon, a 1 percent increase in industrial production leads to a 5–7 percent rise in metals and fuel prices. The surprise component in Chinese industrial production announcements has a bearing on commodity prices that is comparable in magnitude to that of industrial production surprises in the United States, and this impact is much larger when global risk aversion is high.
Keywords:
SN; price; commodity; China; demand; market; price elasticity; effects from shock; interaction terms; import share; food price; food commodity; Commodity prices; Commodity markets; Industrial production; Metal prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper for Chile describes the postcrisis recovery experience. The recovery from the 2008–2009 global crisis has been markedly different both among advanced and emerging economies. The steady improvement in the labor wedge-distortions related to the consumption leisure decision helped support the recovery. In Chile, the growth generated by this improvement, was sufficient to overcome the relatively weak performance of efficiency (TFP). Chile’s recovery has been characterized by strong investment growth, 0.8 percentage points higher than the precrisis trend. The establishment of the Financial Stability Council in 2011 is an important step to ensure close coordination among the institutions involved in Chile’s financial prudential framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; peso exchange rate; bank; labor wedge; copper price; BCA technique; Chilean peso; credit growth; Exchange rates; Metal prices; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
The Selected Issues paper discusses external shocks and its effects on Chile. The economy of Chile is susceptible to global financial predicaments, external demands, and commodity rates. This paper reports on financial spillovers from 2008–12, its methodologies, and the pressures on bank funding markets. The paper also examines performance of nonfinancial sector during the 2008–09 crisis. The Executive Board sees the document as an analytical description of Chile in the global scene.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; Chile; bank; price; copper price; summary statistics; utilities firm; financing needs; firm performance; Metal prices; Interbank markets; Yield curve; Credit risk; Government liabilities; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Commodity Price Curves and Inventories React to a Short-Run Scarcity Shock
Ms. Nese Erbil
and
Mr. Shaun K. Roache
How does a commodity market adjust to a temporary scarcity shock which causes a shift in the slope of the futures price curve? We find long-run relationships between spot and futures prices, inventories and interest rates, which means that such shocks lead to an adjustment back towards a stable equilibrium. We find evidence that the adjustment is somewhat consistent with well-known theoretical models, such as Pindyck (2001); in other words, spot prices rise and then fall, while inventories are used to absorb the shock. Importantly, the pace and nature of the adjustment depends upon whether inventories were initially high or low, which introduces significant nonlinearities into the adjustment process.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate