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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Comoros is a small, fragile island state (population: 850,000) with low and shock-prone growth. A Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) has been in place since July 2021. Policies aimed to: (i) contain and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic; and (ii) start implementing reforms to overcome fragility, boost inclusive growth, and limit risks. The first review assessed implementation through end-September 2021 as satisfactory and rescheduled three structural benchmarks that needed more time from end-December 2021 to end-February 2022. This second (and final) review assessed implementation of end-December 2021 and end-February 2022 quantitative targets and structural benchmarks, as well as overall policy implementation under the SMP.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Union of The Comoros’ Second Review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The implementation of the SMP, which supported the government’s reform program during 2021–2022, was broadly satisfactory, with most quantitative targets and structural benchmarks being met on time. The reported number of coronavirus disease 2019-related cases has remained relatively low. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) incurred substantial losses in 2022 as administered prices were slow to adjust to the surge in global commodity prices, implying lower fiscal revenue, higher public debt, and wider financing gaps over the medium term. Comoros was already facing a high risk of debt distress and substantial financing gaps due to large projects financed by nonconcessional debt and the restructuring of the insolvent state-owned postal bank (SNPSF). The recent deterioration in macroeconomic conditions has further heightened debt sustainability risks. Strong remittances and a resumption of tourism have helped cushion the shock while maintaining an adequate level of foreign reserves. The fallout from the war in Ukraine, however, has set back the expected fiscal gains, underscoring the need for continued fiscal consolidation efforts. IMF welcomes the authorities’ commitment to continuing engagement with the IMF country and technical assistance teams as they push forward the remaining structural benchmark and tackle other structural reforms.

Abstract

Governance and corruption issues have taken the center stage in international discussions, especially after the adoption by the IMF in 2018 of a new framework for engagement on governance and corruption. Sound institutions that guarantee integrity in the management of public affairs are critical on the path toward higher and more inclusive growth. Corruption undermines the quality of institutions, weakens the effectiveness of government programs, and compromises social trust in government policies. Indeed, countries around the world that improved their governance systems are reaping a “governance dividend,” and governance-enhancing reformist countries in sub-Saharan Africa include Botswana, Rwanda, and Seychelles. In addition, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Angola demonstrate that important reforms are possible, including in fragile environments. The importance of good governance has acquired even more importance as countries try to introduce policies to fight the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Special attention to governance in an emergency context, including situations associated with conflict, other health crises and natural disasters, is therefore essential. Innovation and new technologies are critical instruments that policymakers can use in their efforts to improve governance and transparency.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Union of Comoros’ Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). Reflecting the large budgetary and external financing gaps arising from emergency assistance and reconstruction needs, the authorities are seeking financial assistance under the RCF and RFI exogenous shock windows. Comoros’ qualification is based on urgent balance of payments needs following a severe natural disaster. The authorities shared staff’s main policy recommendations. Efforts to address the cyclone’s impact will need to focus on mobilizing external financing, creating fiscal space by containing the wage bill, and spending mobilized resources in a well-targeted and timely manner. The authorities plan to address financial sector weaknesses, including by finding a solution for the critical situation of the postal bank, closely monitoring nonperforming loans, and addressing obstacles in the judicial system to facilitate the use of collateral and promote lending.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper examines Comoros’s weak domestic revenue and volatile windfall revenues. Weak revenue mobilization and reliance on volatile one-off windfall gains remain a significant development challenge for Comoros. Weak revenue mobilization not only makes it more difficult for Comoros to finance its significant development needs, but also increases the budget’s reliance on uncertain and volatile one-off revenue streams. Sustainably improving revenue mobilization based on realistic and attainable budgetary targets is key to the financing of Comoros’s medium- to long-term development goals without endangering debt sustainability. Broadening the tax base and thereby increasing the tax ratio to develop more predictable budgetary financing sources will aid execution of Comoros’s ambitious investment program, which underpins the country’s development strategy.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper examines Comoros’ weak domestic revenue and volatile windfall revenues. Weak revenue mobilization and the reliance on volatile one-off windfall gains remains a significant development challenge for Comoros. Weak revenue mobilization not only makes it more difficult for Comoros to finance its significant development needs, but also increases the budget’s reliance on uncertain and volatile one-off revenue streams. Sustainably improving revenue mobilization based on realistic and attainable budgetary targets, is key for financing Comoros’ medium to long-term development goals without endangering debt sustainability. Broadening the tax base and thereby increasing the tax ratio to develop more predictable budgetary financing sources will aid execution of Comoros’ ambitious investment program that underpins the country’s development strategy.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the main fiscal trends of the Comorian economy over 2005–15. It highlights continued difficulties in the fiscal performance of and the outlook for Comoros as a result of systemic challenges in revenue administration and public financial management. In particular, there is a structural imbalance between domestic resource mobilization and current spending, especially on public wages and salaries, leaving little scope for domestically financed capital spending, which is essential for economic growth and social development. This fiscal imbalance is more pronounced than in similar sub-Saharan African countries, even after taking into account sizable one-off budget grants that benefited the Comorian economy.
Mr. Raju J Singh
,
Kyung-woo Lee
, and
Mr. Markus Haacker
The paper investigates the determinants and the macroeconomic role of remittances in sub-Saharan Africa, assembling the most comprehensive dataset available so far on remittances in the region and incorporating data on the diaspora. It finds that remittances are larger for countries with a larger diaspora or when the diaspora is located in wealthier countries, and that they behave countercyclically, consistent with a role as a shock absorber. Although the effect of remittances in growth regressions is negative, countries with well functioning domestic institutions seem nevertheless to be better at unlocking the potential for remittances to contribute to faster economic growth.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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