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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s economy lost momentum in 2023. The external position weakened, with the current account shifting to a deficit and foreign reserve accumulation slowing. While inflation continued to ease, it remained elevated. Available data indicate a deterioration in the underlying fiscal positions of many countries. The near-term outlook points to stronger economic activity, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024, supported by elevated oil prices and a rebound in oil output. However, the end-June 2024 regional policy assurance on NFA––and, according to preliminary information, the end-December 2024 targets––were not met, indicating a deviation in reserves from the targeted path. Debt vulnerabilities have also worsened in some countries, as evidenced by the growing pressures in the regional government debt market. Following the strong commitment expressed at the extraordinary Heads of State Summit in December 2024 to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen regional institutions, all countries are expected to tackle fiscal slippages, restore fiscal prudence, and implement structural reforms to steer the region toward a more resilient medium-term outlook. This should help reduce risks to the capacity to repay the Fund. However, the projections remain uncertain, as the details of corrective measures and reforms are still being finalized between staff and national authorities.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; CEMAC country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC heads of state; policy assurance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Government securities; Fiscal stance; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
India’s financial system has withstood the pandemic well and has become more resilient since the 2017 FSAP. Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)—especially nonbank financial companies (NBFCs) providing credit with wholesale financing—and market financing have grown, making the financial system more diverse and interconnected. The role of the state has diminished, yet it remains significant, including in using the financial system to pursue social and public finance goals.
Keywords:
market financing; coverage ratio; NBFC liquidity stress test result; policy option; liquidity support; FSAP finding; Financial sector stability; Nonbank financial institutions; Credit; Mutual funds; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Estimating the Impact of Digital Money on Cross-Border Flows: Scenario Analysis Covering the Intensive Margin
Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Melih Firat
, and
Hector Perez-Saiz
Digital money and digital payments innovations have the potential for improving cross-border payments by reducing costs, enhancing speed, and improving transparency. This note performs an empirical analysis of the potential impact of digital money on the volume and transaction costs of cross-border payments, with a focus on the short-term intensive margin. The market of cross-border payments is very large, with retail transactions having a low share of the total but the highest transaction costs, particularly for remittances. Our illustrative scenarios assume an estimated 60 percent reduction in transaction costs and short-term elasticities to changes in costs estimated from remittances data. The results show two outcomes. First, the cross-border volume increases could be sizable for countries that are large remittance recipients and face expensive transaction costs. Second, even with a large drop in transaction costs, the short-term rise in global cross-border transaction volumes could be limited as a result of the low transaction costs of the wholesale segment. Moving outside the short-term intensive margin, the impact could potentially be much larger as digital currencies and other digital payments innovations—together with tokenization of assets on programmable platforms—could move the financial system into a transformative new era by fostering financial development and promoting further inclusion across borders.
Keywords:
Digital money; cross-border payments; transaction costs; digital payments; payments innovation; cross-border payment; scenario analysis; IMF Fintech Brownbag Seminar; IMF seminar; Remittances; Central Bank digital currencies; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Correspondent banking; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Kenya: Technical Assistance Report-Crypto Regulation and Legislation
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical assistance report outlines the current state and future objectives for regulating crypto assets in the Republic of Kenya. The report, prepared at the request of Kenya's Capital Markets Authority, involved an analysis of crypto-asset activities and the related regulatory framework. The report emphasizes the need for a clear legislative framework with specific definitions and classifications of crypto assets, effective inter-agency cooperation, and continuous market monitoring. It highlights the importance of consumer protection through increased financial literacy and regulatory clarity. The diligent efforts of authorities to guide the public have underscored the need for a regulatory framework to mitigate risks and support market integrity. The development of this framework should consider the unique challenges and opportunities within Kenya's crypto market, ensuring it is robust, transparent, and capable of fostering innovation while protecting consumers and maintaining financial stability. Additionally, the report recommends leveraging international best practices to enhance the effectiveness of Kenya's regulatory approach.
Keywords:
Crypto Regulation; Virtual Asset Service Providers Legislative Review; Kenya; Regulatory Sandbox; Financial Stability; Financial Literacy; Market Integrity; Consumer Protection; Cross-sectoral Cooperation; Risk Assessment; Market Analysis; Blockchain; Tokenization.; IMF's Monetary; request of the Capital Markets Authority; private sector entity; CMA Policy paper; entities in Kenya; IMF executive directors; Securities markets; Capital markets; Securities; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: 2024 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses IMF’s 2024 Article IV Consultation and First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Financing Assurances Review for Ecuador. The Article IV consultation discussions considered strategies to strengthen fiscal sustainability while safeguarding priority social and investment spending. Ecuador has made significant progress in the implementation of its economic reform program, meeting all end-August 2024 quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for the first review and advancing important structural reforms. The authorities continue to work on enhancing the social safety net by broadening the coverage of the social registry and gradually expanding cash transfer programs. This will help increase government support to the most vulnerable and mitigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on those groups. The authorities’ strong and decisive policy efforts helped safeguard macroeconomic stability, strengthen the fiscal and external positions, and protect vulnerable groups amid a challenging environment.
Keywords:
EFF arrangement; BCE financing; PFM system; Ecuadorean authorities; policy agenda; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial sector stability; Government finance statistics; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that United Arab Emirates (UAE) economic growth remains strong, driven by robust domestic activity. Non-hydrocarbon growth has benefitted from healthy tourism flows and increased activity in the construction, manufacturing, and financial services sectors. The UAE has continued to experience strong capital inflows, reflecting commodity revenue, safe haven flows, and investment drawn by social and business-friendly reforms. This has boosted central bank foreign reserves and surplus domestic liquidity. Bank balance sheets have strengthened further, with capital buffers well above regulatory minima, and credit has continued to grow despite policy interest rate hikes. The outlook is subject to uncertainty and external risks, but large sovereign buffers help mitigate vulnerabilities. Intensification of geopolitical tensions and geoeconomics fragmentation, or an abrupt global slowdown, sharp correction in global asset prices, or commodity price volatility could lead to a reduction in the flow of goods, capital, and tourism.
Keywords:
government bond bond market; article IV consultation discussion; World bank relations; transparency policy; fund holdings of currency; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial statements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: Central Bank Transparency Code Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on South Africa’s Central Bank Transparency Code Review. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB’s) strategic commitment to open and transparent communications should be anchored in a more robust institutional communication framework. Communications about the SARB’s role in the reform of the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account settlement framework and the implications for its financial autonomy should be further clarified. The SARB’s monetary policy framework is comprehensive, transparent and understandable, but would benefit from greater transparency about setting the inflation target, policy deliberations, and alternative risk scenarios. The SARB has significantly increased the transparency and accountability of its monetary policy framework by adopting appropriate communications vehicles to reach different audiences and by publishing model-based forecasts. The SARB would also benefit from enhancing the transparency of well-established governance arrangements and policies in some areas. It is recommended to strengthen the transparency of certain aspects of the SARB’s legal structure and autonomy, by providing a general explanation of the SARB’s legal protections and its institutional and functional autonomy.
Keywords:
contingency reserve account; central bank Transparency Code; IMF mission; review mission; production assistance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Monetary policy frameworks; International reserves; Inflation targeting; Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2024 Review Of The Fund's Transparency Policy And Open Archives Policy—Background Paper 1 On Key Trends
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
On November 15, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy and approved a number of reforms. As an international institution, making important documents available to the public on timely basis enhances the IMF’s credibility, accountability, and effectiveness and is critical to fulfill its mandate of promoting global economic and financial stability. While transparency at the IMF is achieved through a range of policies and practices, the Transparency Policy and the Open Archives Policy form the core elements of the IMF’s transparency framework. The Fund has come a long way since the inception of these policies in the early nineties. Most Board documents are now published, published more quickly, and under more consistent and evenhanded application of modification rules. The information available in the Fund’s archives has increased and is more easily accessible to the public. While experience suggests that these policies are effective in delivering on their objectives, the landscape in which the Fund operates has evolved since these policies were last reviewed in 2013. In a more interconnected and shock-prone world the pace with which policymakers need to make decisions has accelerated and the expectations of stakeholders on the availability and timeliness of the Fund’s analysis and policy advice has grown. Against this backdrop, the 2024 Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy focuses on targeted reforms to (i) support faster publication of board documents and communications of Board’s decisions; (ii) strengthen the rules and processes to modify Board documents prior to publication; and (iii) allow faster release of some documents in the Fund’s archives accessible to the public. The reforms further clarify the scope and objectives of these policies, their implementation processes, and how to strengthen knowledge sharing. The review was supported by data analysis as well as surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, including Executive Directors, country authorities, IMF missions chiefs, and civil society organizations as detailed in the three background papers accompanying this 2024 review.
Keywords:
Accountability; Archives; Communication; Independence; Lending; Modification Rules; Publication; Surveillance Transparency; country paper; publication rate; transparency Policy review; IMF's transparency Policy; lags of country document; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Income; Financial sector; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vietnam: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vietnam
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that in the challenging year of 2023, the Vietnamese economy grew by 5 percent thanks to determined actions by the government. The economy was hit by turbulence in the real estate sector, financial distress, and a significant drop in exports. Economic growth is projected to recover to 6.1 percent in 2024, supported by continued strong external demand, resilient foreign direct investment, and accommodative policies. Domestic demand growth is expected to recover gradually as corporates navigate through high debt levels while the real estate sector will only fully recover over the medium term. Inflation is expected to hover around the State Bank of Vietnam’s target of 4–4.5 percent in the year of 2024. The fiscal stimulus is helping sustain domestic demand, including investment, which facilitates private sector deleveraging. However, fiscal support may need to be scaled down if there was a large inflation surprise. An upgraded fiscal framework would help improve public policies and manage challenges ahead. Sustaining high medium-term economic growth, amidst demographic and climate headwinds, requires broader structural reforms to boost productivity, address climate challenges, and strengthen governance.
Keywords:
USD trading band; IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; authorities of Viet Nam; SBV management; IMF's Institute for Capacity Development; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Inflation; Financial sector stability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brunei faces complex diversification challenges while it continues to contend with a protracted recovery since the pandemic. Real gross domestic product has rebounded moderately, driven mainly by the non-oil and gas (O&G) sector and earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field in Q4 2023. The recovery is expected to continue, with growth strengthening in 2024 given the increase in O&G production, including from new fields. Inflation is projected to remain unchanged, and fiscal and external balances are expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices. The report recommends maintaining a prudent fiscal stance given the narrowing output gap, uncertainty around O&G revenues and long-term decarbonization trends. Brunei’s currency board has served it well: continuing to align policy rates with the Monetary Authority of Singapore is recommended. It is also recommended to closely monitor credit growth and ensure that the foreign loans continue to be invested in high credit-rated assets, to help to mitigate credit risk.
Keywords:
Brunei Darussalam's exchange rate arrangement; financial system of Brunei Darussalam; SDR million; consultation cycle; Brunei gas price; transparency policy; oil and gas GDP; Fiscal stance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Fiscal consolidation; Global