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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Riding Unicorns: Startups and Venture Capital in Japan
Salih Fendoglu
and
TengTeng Xu
The startup ecosystem in Japan has seen gradual growth, supported by the government’s recent "Startup Development Five-Year Plan" and a significant interest from overseas venture capital. This paper lays out the startup financing ecosystem in Japan, with comparison to international peers, and studies potential drivers of startup financing and their relevance for startups’ performance. The results, based on country-level aggregate analysis, underscore the critical role of firm dynamism and entrepreneurship in supporting capital investment and firm valuations. Further analyses at the firm level suggest that equity funding helps startups innovate, grow, and successfully exit. Moreover, the impact of funding on the likelihood of a successful exit appears to be higher in cultures that seem to reward risk taking.
Keywords:
Startups; venture capital; Japan; firm dynamics; funding affect startup performance; startup ecosystem; helps startup; startup financing; TengTeng xu; Self-employment; Initial public offering; Development strategy; Global
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Unlocking Adaptation Finance in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Deepali Gautam
,
Ekaterina Gratcheva
,
Fabio M Natalucci
, and
Ananthakrishnan Prasad
Mitigation and decarbonization efforts are falling short of the 1.5°C goal, making adaptation critical. Developing economies are affected the most, despite having contributed the least to the problem. Nearly 98 percent of adaptation finance comes from public actors, with highly fragmented flows from the private sector. As financing needs increase, bringing private sector finance becomes critical and requires reframing adaptation investments from being seen not just as a risk exposure but also as an investment opportunity. This requires addressing real and perceived investment barriers, public-private collaboration and risk sharing, as well as financial incentives and innovation to unlock scalable, inclusive solutions. Adaptation is more complex than mitigation, with challenges in defining, evaluating, pricing, and scaling investments. Progress on adaptation requires policy reforms, incentives, and partnerships between governments, businesses, and communities and public-private risk sharing.
Keywords:
climate finance; climate adaptation; climate resilience; climate finance architecture; adaptation finance; emerging markets and developing countries; private finance mobilization; sustainability; IMF Resilience and Sustainability Trust.; IMF staff climate note; IMF resilience; IMF staff climate Note 2024/007; Climate change; Financial sector; Climate policy; Global
Cover 2024年10月《世界经济展望》
2024年10月《世界经济展望》
政策转向，威胁上升
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

最新一期《世界经济展望》报告指出，全球经济增长稳定但乏善可陈，风险偏向下行。伴随通胀下行，货币政策已有所放松。当局需要作出调整，确保财政政策走上可持续道路，并重建财政缓冲。理解货币政策在近期全球通胀下行中的作用，以及影响结构性改革的社会接受度的因素，将是促进未来经济实现稳定、更快增长的关键所在。

Keywords:
全球增长；通货膨胀；经济预测；风险情景；货币政策；结构性改革的社会接受度
Cover Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024
Steadying the Course: Uncertainty, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Chapter 1 shows that although near-term financial stability risks have remained contained, mounting vulnerabilities could worsen future downside risks by amplifying shocks, which have become more probable because of the widening disconnect between elevated economic uncertainty and low financial volatility. Chapter 2 presents evidence that high macroeconomic uncertainty can threaten macrofinancial stability by exacerbating downside tail risks to markets, credit supply, and GDP growth. These relationships are stronger when debt vulnerabilities are elevated, or financial market volatility is low (during episodes of a macro-market disconnect). Chapter 3 assesses recent developments in AI and Generative AI and their implications for capital markets. It presents new analytical work and results from a global outreach to market participants and regulators, delineates potential benefits and risks that may arise from the widespread adoption of these new technologies, and makes suggestions for policy responses.

Keywords:
financial stability; vulnerabilities; uncertainty; risk; artificial intelligence; capital markets; tail risk; uncertainty index; monetary policy; mortgage rate; market liquidity risk; fiscal policy uncertainty; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial sector stability; Sovereign bonds; Credit; Global; Middle East; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; South America
Cover Perspectivas de la economía mundial, octubre de 2024
Perspectivas de la economía mundial, octubre de 2024
Giro en las políticas, amenazas en aumento
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En la última edición de Perspectivas de la economía mundial (informe WEO) se prevé un crecimiento estable pero con tasas desalentadoras, y que la balanza de riesgos se inclina a hacia el deterioro. Conforme la política monetaria se relaja en vista de la continuidad del proceso de desinflación, es necesario cambiar la marcha para garantizar que la política fiscal siga una trayectoria sostenible y que se reponga el margen de maniobra fiscal. Para promover un crecimiento estable y más vigoroso en el futuro será esencial comprender la función de la política monetaria en el reciente proceso de desinflación mundial, así como los factores que inciden en la aceptabilidad social de las reformas estructurales.

Keywords:
crecimiento mundial; inflación; proyección económica; escenarios de riesgo; política monetaria; aceptabilidad social de las reformas estructurales
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2024
World Economic Outlook, October 2024
Policy Pivot, Rising Threats
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The latest World Economic Outlook reports stable but underwhelming global growth, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. As monetary policy is eased amid continued disinflation, shifting gears is needed to ensure that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path and to rebuild fiscal buffers. Understanding the role of monetary policy in recent global disinflation, and the factors that influence the social acceptability of structural reforms, will be key to promoting stable and more rapid growth in the future.

Keywords:
global growth; inflation; economic projection; risk scenarios; monetary policy; social acceptability of structural reforms; inflation expectation; commodity market development; advanced economy; debt restructuring process; growth resilience; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Labor markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East
Cover «Перспективы развития мировой экономики», октябрь 2024 года
«Перспективы развития мировой экономики», октябрь 2024 года
Поворот в экономической политике, растущие угрозы
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Как указано в новом докладе «Перспективы развития мировой экономики», мировой экономический рост является стабильным, но не впечатляющим, при этом баланс рисков смещен в сторону ухудшения ситуации. По мере смягчения денежно-кредитной политики в условиях продолжающегося замедления темпов инфляции необходимо переориентировать политику, чтобы обеспечить устойчивость бюджетной политики и восстановление бюджетных резервов. Понимание роли денежно-кредитной политики в условиях отмечаемого в последнее время замедления темпов инфляции и факторов, влияющих на социальную приемлемость структурных реформ, будет иметь ключевое значение для обеспечения стабильного и более быстрого роста в будущем.

Keywords:
рост мировой экономики; инфляция; экономический прогноз; сценарии рисков; денежно-кредитная политика; социальная приемлемость структурных реформ
Cover IMF Working Papers
Europe’s Shift to EVs Amid Intensifying Global Competition
Philippe Wingender
,
Jiaxiong Yao
,
Robert Zymek
,
Benjamin Carton
,
Diego A. Cerdeiro
, and
Anke Weber
European countries have set ambitious goals to reduce their carbon emissions. These goals include a transition to electric vehicles (EVs)—a sector that China increasingly dominates globally—which could reduce the demand for Europe’s large and interconnected auto sector. This paper aims to size up the tradeoffs between Europe’s shift towards EVs and key macroeconomic outcomes, and analyze which policies may sharpen or ease them. Using state-of-the-art macroeconomic and trade models we analyze a scenario in which the share of Chinese cars in EU purchases rises by 15 percent over 5 years as a result of both a positive productivity shock for car production in China and a demand shock that shifts consumer preferences towards Chinese cars (given China’s dominance in the EV sector). We find that for the EU as a whole, the GDP cost of this shift is small in the short term, in the range of 0.2-0.3 percent of GDP, and close to zero over the long term. Adverse short-run effects are more significant for smaller economies heavily reliant on the car sector, mainly in Central Europe. Protectionist policies, such as tariffs on Chinese EVs, would raise the GDP cost of the EV transition. A further increase in Chinese FDI inflows that results in a significant share of Chinese EVs being produced in Central European economies, on the other hand, would offset losses in these economies by supporting their shift from supplying the internal combustion engine (ICE) production chain to that of EVs.
Keywords:
Electric vehicles; green transition; trade; tariffs; global value chains.; protectionist policy response; GDP cost; EV share; Europe's shift; shift to electric vehicles; Foreign direct investment; Productivity; Imports; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Banks and Climate Change: Key Legal Issues
Mario Tamez
,
Hans Weenink
, and
Akihiro Yoshinaga
Well-designed legal frameworks and institutional arrangments support the legitimacy of central banks’ autonomous decision-making when grounded on sound legal basis and can prevent over-stepping in the remit of other authorities. This paper explores the key legal intersections of climate change and central banks. Climate change could impact price and finanical stability, which are at the core of a central bank’s mandate. While central banks’ legal frameworks can support climate change efforts they also determine the boundaries of the measures they can adopt. Central banks need to assess their mandate and authority under their current legal frameworks when considering measures to contribute to the global response to climate change, while taking actions to fulfill their legal mandates.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Central Bank; Legal Framework; central bank development programs; autonomous decision-making; IMF working paper No. 24/192; central bank's mandate; core objective; Financial sector stability; Climate policy; Central bank mandate; Central bank legislation; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Startups and Venture Capital in Japan: How to Grow
Salih Fendoglu
and
TengTeng Xu
The startup ecosystem in Japan has seen gradual growth, supported by the government’s recent "Startup Development Five-Year Plan" and a significant interest from overseas venture capital. This paper lays out the startup financing ecosystem in Japan, with comparison to international peers, and studies potential drivers of startup financing and their relevance for startups’ performance. The results, based on country-level aggregate analysis, underscore the critical role of firm dynamism and entrepreneurship in supporting capital investment and firm valuations. Further analyses at the firm level suggest that equity funding helps startups innovate, grow, and successfully exit. Moreover, the impact of funding on the likelihood of a successful exit appears to be higher in cultures that seem to reward risk taking.
Keywords:
Inequality; labor market duality; wage gap; fiscal transfers; funding affect startup performance; startup ecosystem; helps startup; startup financing; TengTeng xu; Self-employment; Initial public offering; Development strategy; Global