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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 53 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Middle East and Central Asia: Trade-Offs Today for Transformation Tomorrow
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Middle East and Central Asia: Trade-Offs Today for Transformation Tomorrow
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

A fragile recovery continues in the Middle East and Central Asia region. The region has made good progress since the beginning of the year, but new challenges have emerged. They include a pandemic wave in countries with weak vaccination progress and rising inflation, which has contributed to declining monetary policy space, adding to the difficulties posed by limited fiscal policy space. Additionally, divergent recoveries and concerns about economic scarring persist. Inequities are also on the rise, and countries will need to tackle the pandemic’s impact on debt, labor markets, and the corporate sector. Countries will face difficult tradeoffs amid this challenging environment as they continue to manage the current crisis. Ramping up vaccine acquisition and distribution remains the most urgent short-term priority. Additional support should be well targeted, and central banks may need to raise interest rates if inflation expectations start to increase. Improving policy frameworks will be important to reduce policy tradeoffs. Preparing for a new chapter by investing in a transformational recovery will be vital to the region’s future. Important priorities include reorienting the role of the state toward health, education, and social safety nets; leveraging global trends like digitalization; and investing in climate-resilient technology.

Keywords:
Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; economy; pandemic; recovery; COVID-19; inflation; fiscal policy; monetary policy; regional outlook; country abbreviation; insolvency risk; GCC country; worse-performing firm; follow-up enterprise survey; nonwage outlay; firm resilience; formalization progress; Labor markets; Unemployment; Employment; Inflation; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover World Economic Outlook, April 2021
World Economic Outlook, April 2021
Managing Divergent Recoveries
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

Keywords:
productivity shock; headline inflation; retention policy; job retention; IMF staff calculation; reallocation policy; Emerging and frontier financial markets; COVID-19; Unemployment; Labor markets; Economic recession; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United States: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for United States
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The U.S. is in the midst of an unprecedented social and economic shock. The longest expansion in U.S. history has been derailed by the unanticipated advent of COVID-19. To preserve lives and support public health, it was necessary to put in place a broad-based shutdown of the U.S. economy in March. Despite the gradual easing of state lockdown restrictions and lifting of stay-at-home orders starting in late April, the collateral economic damage has been enormous. First, and foremost, as of July 16, more than 136,000 Americans have tragically lost their lives and many more have become seriously ill. Almost fifteen million Americans have lost their jobs, many small and large businesses are under financial stress, and future prospects are highly uncertain. Reopening decisions will have to be handled carefully to mitigate the economic costs while containing the ongoing rise in COVID-19 infection rates. It will likely take a prolonged period to repair the economy and to return activity to pre-pandemic levels. All in all, globally there will be difficult months and years ahead and it is of particular concern that the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is still rising.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff appraisal; President's executive order; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; article IV discussion; article IV team; decisive response; Income; Unemployment; Loans; COVID-19; Global; Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area
Mr. Nathaniel G Arnold
,
Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu
,
H. Elif Ture
,
Hou Wang
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
This note outlines a concrete proposal for a euro area central fiscal capacity (CFC) that could help smooth both country-specific and common shocks. Specifically, it proposes a macroeconomic stabilization fund financed by annual contributions from countries that are used to build up assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a borrowing capacity in case an exceptionally large shock exhausts the fund’s assets. To address moral hazard risks, transfers from the CFC—beyond a country’s own net contributions—would be conditional on compliance with the EU fiscal rules. The note also discusses several features aimed at avoiding permanent transfers between countries and making the CFC function as automatically as possible—to limit the scope for disputes over its operation—both of which are important points to make it politically acceptable.
Keywords:
SDN; moving average; Euro Area; Fiscal Integration; Macroeconomic Stabilization; CFC transfer; debt group; asset target; CFC assets; shock scenario; trend unemployment rate; aggregate CFC contribution target; CFC asset; deviation trigger; stabilization power; Unemployment rate; Fiscal rules; Return on investment; Output gap; Fiscal stabilization; Global; CFC proposal; inflation impact; usage premium; calibrating contribution; Stress testing
Cover IMF Working Papers
Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform in Italy
Mr. Alvar Kangur
The growth of Italian exports has lagged that of euro area peers. Against the backdrop of unit labor costs that have risen faster than those in euro area peers, this paper examines whether there is a competitiveness challenge in Italy and evaluates the framework of wage bargaining. Wages are set at the sectoral level and extended nationally. However, they do not respond well to firm-specific productivity, regional disparities, or skill mismatches. Nominally rigid wages have also implied adjustment through lower profits and employment. Wage developments explain about 45 percent of the manufacturing unit labor cost gap with Germany. In a search-and-match DSGE model of the Italian labor market, this paper finds substantial gains from moving from sectoral- to firm-level wage setting of at least 3.5 percentage points lower unemployment (or higher employment) rate and a notable improvement in Italy’s competitiveness over the medium term.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; productivity differential; export price; wage bargaining; zombie firm; Italy; competitiveness; exchange rate; labor costs; exports; labor market reforms; search and matching; DSGE models; wage-productivity differential; wage dispersion; wage distribution; wage externality; real value; wage markup; negotiated wage limit; institutions in Italy; market share; frontier firm TFP level; sectoral wage agreement; wage agreement; Wages; Productivity; Labor markets; Competition; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound
Matteo Cacciatore
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Giuseppe Fiori
, and
Mr. Fabio Ghironi
This paper studies the impact of product and labor market reforms when the economy faces major slack and a binding constraint on monetary policy easing. such as the zero lower bound. To this end, we build a two-country model with endogenous producer entry, labor market frictions, and nominal rigidities. We find that while the effect of market reforms depends on the cyclical conditions under which they are implemented, the zero lower bound itself does not appear to matter. In fact, when carried out in a recession, the impact of reforms is typically stronger when the zero lower bound is binding. The reason is that reforms are inflationary in our structural model (or they have no noticeable deflationary effects). Thus, contrary to the implications of reduced-form modeling of product and labor market reforms as exogenous reductions in price and wage markups, our analysis shows that there is no simple across-the-board relationship between market reforms and the behavior of real marginal costs. This significantly alters the consequences of the zero (or any effective) lower bound on policy rates.
Keywords:
WP; product market; Employment protection; Monetary policy; Producer entry; Product market regulation; Structural reforms; Unemployment benefits; Zero lower bound; product market deregulation; present discounted value; nominal interest rate; physical capital; product market reform; labor market dynamics; Consumption; Commodity markets; Labor productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
and
Mr. Magnus Saxegaard
This paper explores the macroeconomic impacts of labor and product market deregulation using a small open-economy model with formal and informal markets. We examine both the long-run effects and the transition towards the post-reform equilibrium, while our main focus are reform packages and sequencing. The unofficial sector is a major determinant of the sign, and, in particular, the magnitude of responses. South Africa, an emerging country, is considered when Bayesian estimating the model. Regarding the long run, both labor and product market reforms considerably increase output, although labor market reforms are more successful in decreasing unemployment. Nevertheless, there are short-term costs, for example, a decrease in household consumption, net exports or output, or a decrease in competition. Combining reforms, especially with product market deregulation, are good at reducing short-term costs. Finally, concerning the speed of adjustment, it is usually better to start with a labor market reform.
Keywords:
WP; product market; labor market; physical capital; shadow economy; structural reforms; labor market deregulation; product market deregulation; unemployment; hiring costs; endogenous firm entry; informal employment; small-open economy; reform packages; sequencing; hiring cost; product market reform; firm exit; export price elasticity; exit rate; value function; Wages; Commodity markets; Labor market reforms; Employment; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method
Bibek Adhikari
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Bingjie Hu
, and
Mr. Prakash Loungani
A number of advanced economies carried out a sequence of extensive reforms of their labor and product markets in the 1990s and early 2000s. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), this paper implements six case studies of well-known waves of reforms, those of New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Ireland and Netherlands in the 1990s, and the labor market reforms in Germany in the early 2000s. In four of the six cases, GDP per capita was higher than in the control group as a result of the reforms. No difference between the treated country and its synthetic counterpart could be found in the cases of Denmark and New Zealand, which in the latter case may have partly reflected the implementation of reforms under particularly weak macroeconomic conditions. Overall, also factoring in the limitations of the SCM in this context, the results are suggestive of a positive but heterogenous effect of reform waves on GDP per capita.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; real GDP; product market; fiscal policy; structural reforms; synthetic control method; liberalization; labor and productivity market reforms; growth; heads of state government; State life insurance insurance company; industrial relations; government's share; predictive power; reform package; donor country; untreated country; income support; firm level; life insurance insurance company; Labor market reforms; Competition; Active labor market policies; Unemployment; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
France: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for France
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic recovery in France is solidifying. The economy is projected to expand by 1.5 percent in 2016, primarily driven by strong consumer spending. There are also signs of a cyclical recovery in investment, and the slump in residential construction appears to be bottoming out. By contrast, net exports are declining as demand from trading partners has slowed. Private sector job creation has remained lackluster, and the unemployment rate has hovered at about 10 percent. The government has continued to advance important reforms to help create the conditions for improved economic performance. As for budget policies, there are ongoing efforts to contain spending growth at all levels of government while easing taxes.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial market condition; staff appraisal; growth; banks' exposure; staff growth forecast; financial market volatility; Labor markets; Unemployment; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Impact of Product and Labor Market Reforms on Informality and Unemployment in India
Rahul Anand
and
Purva Khera
This paper investigates the implications of lowering formal regulations in labor and product markets on informality and macroeconomic outcomes in India. We estimate a DSGE model with an informal sector, and rigidities in the formal labor and product markets. Along with increasing GDP and employment, deregulation also leads to lower informality and greater product market competition. Slow reallocation of resources between the formal and informal sectors leads to some adverse impacts in the short run that can be minimized by implementing a combined package of reforms. These impacts are shown to be greater in an economy with a larger informal sector.
Keywords:
structural reforms; product market deregulation; labor market deregulation; unemployment; wage bargaining; informality; DSGE; Indian economy; Bayesian estimation; entry cost; wage inequality; increase output; open economy; sector wage; hiring cost; reforms help; bargaining power; Labor markets; Wages; Commodity markets; Labor costs; Global