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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Chile discusses that the economy is broadly balanced but external risks are elevated. Chile’s macroeconomic position is sound due to its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. Lifting Chile’s growth potential is a must to raise living standards and tackle social and fiscal pressures. The goal of a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2027 remains appropriate but has become more challenging. Continuous enhancements to Chile’s already very strong fiscal framework would foster fiscal policy formulation and transparency. A pension reform is essential to ensure adequate pensions and address the fiscal costs of population aging. Raising contribution rates and the number of contribution periods is vital for sustainably self-financing old-age pensions. The minimum guaranteed pension has strengthened the system’s solidarity, increased replacement ratios, and reduced old-age poverty, but it also incurs high fiscal costs. The financial system remains resilient despite rising vulnerabilities related to the real estate sector and lower financial market depth.
Keywords:
pension reform bill; draft bill; FSAP mission; liquidity risk supervision; interest rate risk supervision; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Labor markets; Global; South America
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover 2024年10月《世界经济展望》
2024年10月《世界经济展望》
政策转向，威胁上升
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

最新一期《世界经济展望》报告指出，全球经济增长稳定但乏善可陈，风险偏向下行。伴随通胀下行，货币政策已有所放松。当局需要作出调整，确保财政政策走上可持续道路，并重建财政缓冲。理解货币政策在近期全球通胀下行中的作用，以及影响结构性改革的社会接受度的因素，将是促进未来经济实现稳定、更快增长的关键所在。

Keywords:
全球增长；通货膨胀；经济预测；风险情景；货币政策；结构性改革的社会接受度
Cover Perspectivas de la economía mundial, octubre de 2024
Perspectivas de la economía mundial, octubre de 2024
Giro en las políticas, amenazas en aumento
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En la última edición de Perspectivas de la economía mundial (informe WEO) se prevé un crecimiento estable pero con tasas desalentadoras, y que la balanza de riesgos se inclina a hacia el deterioro. Conforme la política monetaria se relaja en vista de la continuidad del proceso de desinflación, es necesario cambiar la marcha para garantizar que la política fiscal siga una trayectoria sostenible y que se reponga el margen de maniobra fiscal. Para promover un crecimiento estable y más vigoroso en el futuro será esencial comprender la función de la política monetaria en el reciente proceso de desinflación mundial, así como los factores que inciden en la aceptabilidad social de las reformas estructurales.

Keywords:
crecimiento mundial; inflación; proyección económica; escenarios de riesgo; política monetaria; aceptabilidad social de las reformas estructurales
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2024
World Economic Outlook, October 2024
Policy Pivot, Rising Threats
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The latest World Economic Outlook reports stable but underwhelming global growth, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. As monetary policy is eased amid continued disinflation, shifting gears is needed to ensure that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path and to rebuild fiscal buffers. Understanding the role of monetary policy in recent global disinflation, and the factors that influence the social acceptability of structural reforms, will be key to promoting stable and more rapid growth in the future.

Keywords:
global growth; inflation; economic projection; risk scenarios; monetary policy; social acceptability of structural reforms; inflation expectation; commodity market development; advanced economy; debt restructuring process; growth resilience; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Labor markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East
Cover «Перспективы развития мировой экономики», октябрь 2024 года
«Перспективы развития мировой экономики», октябрь 2024 года
Поворот в экономической политике, растущие угрозы
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Как указано в новом докладе «Перспективы развития мировой экономики», мировой экономический рост является стабильным, но не впечатляющим, при этом баланс рисков смещен в сторону ухудшения ситуации. По мере смягчения денежно-кредитной политики в условиях продолжающегося замедления темпов инфляции необходимо переориентировать политику, чтобы обеспечить устойчивость бюджетной политики и восстановление бюджетных резервов. Понимание роли денежно-кредитной политики в условиях отмечаемого в последнее время замедления темпов инфляции и факторов, влияющих на социальную приемлемость структурных реформ, будет иметь ключевое значение для обеспечения стабильного и более быстрого роста в будущем.

Keywords:
рост мировой экономики; инфляция; экономический прогноз; сценарии рисков; денежно-кредитная политика; социальная приемлемость структурных реформ
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Portugal: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Portugal recovered strongly from the successive shocks that hit the global economy since the pandemic. Growth in 2023 continued to exceed the euro area average, driven by strong private consumption, net exports, and investment supported by EU funds. Increasing labor force participation and net positive migration led to higher hours worked while unemployment remains at historically low levels. Inflation has decelerated fast. A large fiscal surplus was achieved in 2023, and public debt was reduced to 99 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—a remarkable 36 percentage points of GDP since 2020. The external position strengthened, supported by vigorous exports including tourism, EU funds, and improved terms of trade. Financial stability indicators improved, reflecting a reduction in systemic risks. Growth is projected to remain robust in the near term, and inflation is projected to decelerate further. However, low productivity growth, population aging, and subdued investment remain constraints to higher growth and better living standards over the medium term.
Keywords:
first-time safeguards assessment; consultation discussion; safeguards recommendation; subdued productivity growth; General government account; growth projection; labor market duality; Labor markets; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Canada: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Canadian economy appears to have achieved a soft landing: inflation has come down almost to target, while a recession has been avoided, with gross domestic product growth cushioned by surging immigration even as per capita income has shrunk. Housing unaffordability has risen to levels not seen in a generation, with demand boosted by immigration and supply facing continued challenges to expansion. Canada’s recent introduction of quantitative fiscal objectives is welcome and could be followed by adoption of a formal fiscal framework to anchor fiscal policy even more effectively. The authorities’ multipronged approach to address housing affordability is expected to yield results over time, but further efforts will likely be needed at all levels of government to address the large housing supply gap. Boosting Canada’s lagging productivity growth—including by taking steps to promote investment and R&D, harness artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies (within appropriate guardrails), and capitalize on the green transition—is a key priority for the country’s long-term prospects. Given skills gaps and demographic pressures, immigration remains a critical ingredient.
Keywords:
investment Canada Act; emissions-reduction goal; further policy guidance; consultation cycle; consultation notice; Housing; Inflation; Migration; Labor markets; Financial sector stability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
France: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for France
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with France discusses that strong and timely policy response helped cushion the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the energy crisis resulting from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite a recovery slowdown in 2023, the French economy has remained relatively resilient in the face of financial tightening and weaker euro area external demand. Nevertheless, the crisis response and slower-than-expected recovery have weighed on public finances, with a sizable fiscal underperformance in 2023 reducing fiscal space at a time of rising investment needs for the green and digital transformation. While financial conditions started improving in early 2024, market pressures on sovereign spreads and stock markets rose in early June following the European elections amid political uncertainty. Growth is projected to gradually reach 1.3 percent by 2025 from 0.9 percent in 2024. The disinflationary process is on track, with headline inflation expected to reach 2.3 percent in 2024 and return to target in the first half of 2025. The outlook remains subject to high uncertainty. Heightened political fragmentation and policy uncertainty domestically could delay fiscal consolidation and reform efforts, weighing on confidence and public finances. The French authorities should continue to advance structural reforms to support jobs and raise productivity, amid ongoing geopolitical and economic transitions.
Keywords:
government projection; single market; policy uncertainty; labor market performance; unemployment benefit reform; resilience to shock; solvency requirement; liquidity managements tool; stability program; headline inflation; climate transition risk; Labor markets; Climate change; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that growth is recovering gradually after slowing in 2023 in Switzerland. In order to counter risks of inflation moving to and settling at very low rates, the rate cut ahead of other central banks was appropriate. Going forward, monetary policy should remain responsive to incoming data, while taking into account international monetary policy developments. Banks have strong buffers, but vulnerabilities related to real estate persist. Ample capital buffers should be maintained, the macroprudential toolkit expanded, supply-side actions to stem pressure on the residential housing market advanced and data gaps closed. The authorities should continue to promote labor market and pension reforms to incentivize labor force participation of women, older workers, and immigrants and address labor shortages, skills gaps, and potential fiscal imbalances. The revised CO2 Act clarifies the policy framework for 2025–2030 but is less ambitious than initially proposed and might require acquiring more emissions-reduction credits from internationally. Advancing negotiations with the EU and enhancing cooperation with other key partners would mitigate uncertainty and strengthen resilience against geo-economic fragmentation risks.
Keywords:
SNB data portal; banking stress test model; climate policy framework; financial system stability assessment update; IMF of exchange restriction; policy stance; Inflation; Labor markets; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial sector stability; Global