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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Mauro Cazzaniga
,
Florence Jaumotte
,
Longji Li
,
Giovanni Melina
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Emma J Rockall
, and
Marina Mendes Tavares
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely due to their employment structure focused on cognitive-intensive roles. There are some consistent patterns concerning AI exposure, with women and college-educated individuals more exposed but also better poised to reap AI benefits, and older workers potentially less able to adapt to the new technology. Labor income inequality may increase if the complementarity between AI and high-income workers is strong, while capital returns will increase wealth inequality. However, if productivity gains are sufficiently large, income levels could surge for most workers. In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation, while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging market and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; Labor Market; Job Displacement; Income Inequality; Advanced Economies; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; AI preparedness index; AI benefit; AI exposure; ICT employment share; AI adoption; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Income; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cameroon: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
model calibration; soes subsidization; digital money in Cameroon; micro-finance development; micro-finance institution; Financial inclusion; Mobile banking; Financial sector development; Digital currencies; Microfinance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cameroon: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
model calibration; soes subsidization; digital money in Cameroon; micro-finance development; micro-finance institution; Financial inclusion; Mobile banking; Financial sector development; Digital currencies; Microfinance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The UK entered 2020 negotiating a new economic relationship with the EU and facing other challenges, including meeting climate targets, dealing with an aging population, and reinvigorating tepid productivity growth. Growth and investment had been weak since the 2016 referendum, and the current account deficit elevated, but unemployment was low, inflation on target, and balance sheets strong. The global pandemic hit the UK hard in March, and the country now faces a second wave. The economic impact has been severe, but helped by an aggressive policy response, jobs have been preserved, businesses kept afloat, and banking sector losses contained. Still, the outlook for the near term is weak, as the economy works through the second wave, Brexit, rising unemployment, and corporate distress. Risks are overall to the downside, centering on the degree of balance sheet damage sustained by households and small and medium enterprises. The pace at which vaccines are able to bring the pandemic under control could be an important mitigating factor.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; NI Protocol; draft UK; bank dividend payment; welfare provision; withdrawal agreement; activity data; COVID-19; Inflation; Global; Europe
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP
Cover Policy Papers
FY2020 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2020 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
PP; expenditures FY; dollar spending; spending execution; unspent FY 18; digitalization strategy; management fee; Medium-term budget; Budget planning and preparation; Capital spending; Financial Sector Assessment Program; COVID-19; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Asia and Pacific
Navigating the Pandemic: A Multispeed Recovery in Asia
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is still unfolding around the globe. In Asia, as elsewhere, the virus has ebbed in some countries but surged in others. The global economy is beginning to recover after a sharp contraction in the second quarter of 2020, as nationwide lockdowns are lifted and replaced with more targeted containment measures.

Keywords:
recovery; reopening; inequality; job loss; uncertainty; risk; lockdowns; exit strategy; REO; containment measure; virus containment; virus transmission rate; disproportionate impact; labor market survey
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP; banking sector; fiscal policy; COVID-19; Debt restructuring; Securities markets; Caribbean; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United States: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for United States
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The U.S. is in the midst of an unprecedented social and economic shock. The longest expansion in U.S. history has been derailed by the unanticipated advent of COVID-19. To preserve lives and support public health, it was necessary to put in place a broad-based shutdown of the U.S. economy in March. Despite the gradual easing of state lockdown restrictions and lifting of stay-at-home orders starting in late April, the collateral economic damage has been enormous. First, and foremost, as of July 16, more than 136,000 Americans have tragically lost their lives and many more have become seriously ill. Almost fifteen million Americans have lost their jobs, many small and large businesses are under financial stress, and future prospects are highly uncertain. Reopening decisions will have to be handled carefully to mitigate the economic costs while containing the ongoing rise in COVID-19 infection rates. It will likely take a prolonged period to repair the economy and to return activity to pre-pandemic levels. All in all, globally there will be difficult months and years ahead and it is of particular concern that the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is still rising.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff appraisal; President's executive order; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; article IV discussion; article IV team; decisive response; Income; Unemployment; Loans; COVID-19; Global; Europe