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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts
Patrick A. Imam
and
Christian Schmieder
We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
Keywords:
Aging; Demographics; Bank risk-taking; Financial Stability; IMF working paper No. 24/118; tail risk; risk preference; stability risk; solvency profile; bank assets; Commercial banks; Bank soundness; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and International Diversification Benefits
Tatsushi Okuda
and
Tomohiro Tsuruga
This paper applies the two-country open-economy model with trade in stocks and bonds of Coeurdacier et al. (2010) to quantify the loss of international diversification benefits for major advanced economies, which have a significant presence in international financial markets, under geoeconomic fragmentation. We perform counterfactual simulations under different hypothetical fragmentation scenarios in which these economies are unable to trade with geopolitically distant countries, as measured by voting disagreement on foreign policy issues at the United Nations General Assembly meetings during 2012-2021. The simulation results imply a potentially significant loss of international diversification benefits of financial openness for the considered advanced economies by limiting trading to partner countries that are geopolitical allies with highly synchronized business cycles.
Keywords:
Geopolitical risk; financial integration; international risk sharing; diversification benefit; output volatility; volatility of Macro-Financial Variables; simulation result; investment efficiency process; Total factor productivity; Business cycles; Consumption; International capital markets; Output gap; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Market for Brown Assets To Make Finance Green
Mr. Domenico Fanizza
and
Laura Cerami
This paper proposes a market solution to enhance the role of the financial sector in the green transition. Developing a secondary market for “brown exposures” can allow banks to dispose more quickly of stranded assets thereby increasing their capacity to finance green investments. Furthermore, newly created instruments – the brown assets backed securities (B-ABS) - can expand the diversification opportunities for specialized green investors and, thus, attract additional resources for new green investments. The experience of the secondary market for non-performing loans suggests that targeted policy and regulatory measures can simultaneously support the development of the secondary market for brown assets and green finance.
Keywords:
Green finance; financial innovation; greenium; financial sector; climate change; market solution; experience of the secondary market; green transition; policy simulation; Climate finance; Nonperforming loans; Securities markets; Climate policy; Global; Europe
Cover Analytical Notes
Exploring Multilateral Platforms for Cross-Border Payments
Bank of International Settlements
,
International Monetary Fund
, and
World Bank
This report provides an assessment of whether and how multilateral platforms could bring meaningful improvements to the cross-border payments ecosystem. It was written by the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) in collaboration with the BIS Innovation Hub, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.1 The report analyses the potential costs and benefits of these platforms and how they might alleviate some of the cross-border payment frictions. It also evaluates the risks, barriers and challenges to establishing multilateral platforms and explores two paths for their evolution. The analysis is based on a stocktake, conducted by the CPMI, of existing and potential multilateral platforms as well as bilateral discussions with existing platform operators.
Keywords:
multilateral platform; payment message standard; cross-border payment friction; platform operator; payments programme; Payment systems; Currencies; Public sector; Correspondent banking; Global; Southern Africa; West Africa; Central America
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—2022: Borrowing Agreements With The Government of Canada As Represented By The Minister of Finance, The Bank of Italy, The Government of Japan, And The Bank of Spain
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents the first set of borrowing agreements that have been finalized as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to cover the cost of pandemic-related lending and support the self-sustainability of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). All agreements presented use SDRs in the context of SDR channeling and together provide a total of SDR 2.85 billion in new PRGT loan resources for low-income countries (LICs).
Keywords:
transparency policy; PRGT loan resource; amended agreement; SDRS to an account; PRGT reform; Loans; Poverty reduction strategy; Distressed assets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Stress Testing, Interconnectedness, and Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The financial sector weathered COVID relatively well on the back of high pre-crisis capital and liquidity buffers, strong public and private sector balance sheets, and unprecedented public and ECB support. Immediate risks to Germany’s financial stability of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appear to be manageable due to the banks’ limited direct exposures to Russia. However, risks associated with the economic fallout could impact some individual financial institutions, non-performing loans, and house prices. Real GDP growth was projected to regain momentum from mid-2022 onwards, but the war could hinder the recovery through supply constraints, higher-than-expected above-target inflation (with higher energy prices and supply constraints), a tightening of financial conditions, and shifts in investors’ confidence.
Keywords:
hurdle rate; FSAP solvency; swap line; building and loan association; cash flow; ECB support; Commercial banks; Cooperative banks; Liquidity requirements; Stress testing; Liquidity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Italy: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
GDP has fully recovered from the pandemic crisis, but government debt has risen to very high levels. The war in Ukraine triggered a surge in energy prices and the prospect of monetary policy tightening caused government bond yields to rise sharply. Implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), which provides large EU grants and loans conditioned on implementing a comprehensive reform and investment program, is underway.
Keywords:
money market rate; price signal; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; public finance; financial asset; Energy prices; Loans; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Quantitative Easing and Credit Rating Agencies
Nordine Abidi
,
Matteo Falagiarda
, and
Ixart Miquel-Flores
This paper investigates the behaviour of credit rating agencies using a natural experiment in monetary policy. We exploit the corporate QE of the Eurosystem and its rating-based specific design which generates exogenous variation in the probability for a bond of becoming eligible for outright purchases. We show that after the launch of the policy, rating activity was concentrated precisely on the territory where the incentives of market participants are expected to be more sensitive to the policy design. Our findings contribute to better assessing the consequences of the explicit reliance on CRAs ratings by central banks when designing monetary policy. They also support the Covid-19 monetary stimulus, and in particular the waiver of private credit rating eligibility requirements applied to recently downgraded issuers.
Keywords:
Credit Rating Agencies; Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; eligibility requirement; rating activity; behaviour of credit rating agencies; rating Agency Disclaimer; eligibility frontier; Bonds; Bond ratings; Corporate bonds; Credit ratings; Unconventional monetary policies; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Corporate Stress Tests—Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses
Mr. Thierry Tressel
and
Xiaodan Ding
Corporate sector vulnerabilities have been a central policy topic since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we analyze some 17,000 publicly listed firms in a sample of 24 countries, and assess their ability to withstand shocks induced by the pandemic to their liquidity, viability and solvency. For this purpose, we develop novel multi-factor sensitivity analysis and dynamic scenario-based stress test techniques to assess the impact of shocks on firm’s ability to service their debt, and on their liquidity and solvency positions. Applying the October 2020 WEO baseline and adverse scenarios, we find that a large share of publicly-listed firms become vulnerable as a result of the pandemic shock and additional borrowing needs to overcome cash shortfalls are large, while firm behavioral responses and policies substantially help overcome the impact of the shock in the near term. Looking forward, while interest coverage ratios tend to improve over time after the initial shock as earnings recover in line with projected macroeconomic conditions, liquidity needs remain substantial in many firms across countries and across industries, while insolvencies rise over time in specific industries. To inform policy debates, we offer an approach to a triage between viable and unviable firms, and find that the needs for liquidity support of viable firms remain important beyond 2020, and that medium-term debt restructuring needs and liquidations of firms may be substantial in the medium-term.
Keywords:
Covid-19 pandemic; corporate sector vulnerabilities; stress tests; debt restructuring; viability of firms; solvency and liquidity support policies.; A. firm Level vulnerability indicator; pandemic shock; liquidity support policy; debt share; share of sample; COVID-19; Currencies; Stress testing; Liquidity; Financial statements; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
Keywords:
IMF research perspective; government spending multiplier; R&D effort; IMF CSF; central bank financing; COVID-19; Bank credit; Fiscal stance; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa