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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper provides background for an informal discussion to engage with Executive Directors, held on November 26, 2024, on the Comprehensive Review of GRA Access Limits. The General Resources Account (GRA) access limits are part of the Fund’s risk management framework. They help maintain a balance between the need to: (i) ensure that members have confidence in the availability of Fund financing; and (ii) preserve liquidity and the revolving nature of the Fund’s resources.
Bruno Albuquerque
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Nassira Abbas
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José M. Garrido
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Deepali Gautam
,
Benjamin Mosk
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Thomas Piontek
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Anjum Rosha
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Thierry Tressel
, and
Aki Yokoyama
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of corporate sector vulnerabilities that have emerged post-pandemic. The main focus in on the financial stability implications from corporate sector vulnerabilities in a new environment of high interest rates. Although several central banks have recently started cutting interest rates, the expectation is that high interest rates, above pre-pandemic levels, are here to stay. It is then especially important to design and deploy appropriate policies that may prevent and mitigate risks from the corporate sector. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, the paper finds that interest rate increases may transmit more strongly to the real economy in the current environment since the global share of financially distressed firms has been trending upwards, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Moreover, the lagged effects of past monetary policy tightening may have adverse effects on firms’ capacity to invest. Second, an adverse macroeconomic scenario of negative demand shocks coupled with higher interest rates would lead to a fast and large increase in corporate defaults. Financial stability risks would increase materially, especially for EMs and less-developed banking systems, as bank capital buffers would fall considerably in this scenario. Third, the increasing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation in advanced economies may amplify overall financial stability risks. This paper closes some of the data gaps and shows that since the GFC, nonbanks have been increasing their exposure to riskier firms and to the less productive segment of the economy, including zombie firms and nontradable firms. The migration of credit to the unregulated sector raises concerns about the propagation of risks to the rest of the financial system from a potential corporate default cycle. It is paramount to continue closing data gaps in this sector, while extending the regulatory perimeter to nonbanks to improve the overall resilience of the financial sector. Finally, the paper documents some progress on insolvency and restructuring regimes to deal with corporate distress since the pandemic. Nevertheless, several shortcomings persist that prevent countries from resolving firms quickly in a potential scenario of an intensification of corporate distress.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
On December 17, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Comprehensive Review of General Resources Account (GRA) Access Limits. The review maintained the overall annual and cumulative GRA access limits at 200 and 600 percent of current quotas, respectively, keeping them unchanged from the existing temporary limits that were set to expire at the end of 2024. These limits constitute a 38 percent increase relative to the limits set in the previous comprehensive review in 2016. The Board also approved adjustments to the access limits when the general conditions of the quota increase under the 16th General Review of Quotas are met and agreed that the next Review is expected to take place on the standard five-year review cycle, with flexibility to conduct it earlier if circumstances warrant. Access limits are a key element of the Fund’s risk management framework. Overall GRA access limits are not ceilings but thresholds for enhanced scrutiny and safeguards through the exceptional access framework. Two staff papers informed the Executive Board’s informal engagement (November) and the formal meeting (December) on this review.
Luis Brandão-Marques
and
Hasan H Toprak
Industrial policy is once again at the forefront of the policy debate around the world. However, state aid is a contentious issue in the European Union given the need to maintain a level playing in its single market. This paper estimates the effects of state aid between 2016 and 2023 on listed nonfinancial firms in Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom (until 2020) using a high-frequency identification approach to address endogeneity. It finds that firms that receive state aid increase employment and revenue, but not investment or labor productivity. Moreover, it finds that there are adverse spillover effects to competing firms that significantly undo any positive own effects. These findings suggest that, should there be a case for providing state aid to firms in the European Union, this should be done at the European level instead of the member state level to mitigate adverse spillovers. Pooling resources and competitively allocating aid across the Union could preserve market competition, encourage firm entry, and ensure a more efficient distribution of funds.
Philip Barrett
This is the third update of the reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), describing the evolution of social unrest worldwide since June 2023. It shows that the global incidence of unrest has stayed broadly stable in the last year. However, the global distribution has not been even, with a concentration of major events in Europe and sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, in the Western Hemisphere.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
At the time of the 2005 Review of the Fund’s Transparency Policy, the Executive Board requested regular updates on trends in implementing the transparency policy. This report provides an overview of recent developments, reflecting information on documents considered by the Board in 2022 and updating the previous annual report on Key Trends. Deeper analysis of these trends is undertaken in the context of periodic reviews of the Fund’s Transparency Policy.
International Monetary Fund. Office of Internal Audit
Overall, progress has been made since the Twelfth PMR on actions in response to eight IEO evaluations, with the pace of implementation being faster on actions October 31, 2023 THIRTEENTH PERIODIC MONITORING REPORT 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND contained in the MIP in Response to the Executive Board-Endorsed Categorization of Open Actions in Management Implementation Plans. It is also worth mentioning that many open actions depend on the implementation of some important reviews/key steps that are expected to be completed in or soon after December 2023, such as the Capacity Development (CD) Strategy Review, the issuance of a new CD Guidance Note, an update of the Small Developing States Staff Guidance Note (SDS-SGN), the Operational Guidance Note (OGN) on Program Design and Conditionality, and a Board paper on Bank-Fund collaboration.
Roshan Iyer
and
Adina Popescu
We analyze returns and volatility spillovers among a representative set of crypto and financial assets. The magnitude of spillovers increases during periods of heightened turbulence due to negative economic-financial news, crypto market events, or exogenous shocks. There is evidence of increasing spillovers over time, with a peak during the COVID-19 pandemic, implying growing interdependence. Crypto assets predominantly transmit spillovers to financial markets, though reversals occur during periods of financial stress. The increased correlation during risk-off episodes suggests that crypto assets could serve as important conduits for financial market shocks, generating financial stability risks.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
At the time of the 2005 Review of the Fund’s Transparency Policy, the Executive Board requested regular updates on trends in implementing the transparency policy. This report provides an overview of recent developments, reflecting information on documents considered by the Board in 2021 and updating the previous annual report on Key Trends. Deeper analysis of these trends is undertaken in the context of periodic reviews of the Fund’s Transparency Policy.
Mr. Philip Barrett
and
Euihyun Bae
This paper is the second update of the Reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), outlining developments in global social unrest since March 2022. It shows that the fraction of countries experiencing major social unrest events has been stable. Reasons for social unrest can be broadly categorized as stemming from sdebate over constitutional issues, protests connected to specific policies, and other generalized disorder.