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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 27 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
Bada Han
,
Rashad Ahmed
,
Joshua Aizenman
, and
Yothin Jinjarak
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Keywords:
Sectoral Debt; Household Debt; Dollar Cycle; Emerging Markets; debt growth; household debt growth; debt level; appreciation shock; debt cycle; Business cycles; Consumption; Income; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Integrated Policy Framework—Principles for the Use of Foreign Exchange Intervention
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
, and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This note guides policy advice on the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) as part of the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in Fund surveillance. The note provides general principles for the advice in countries with flexible exchange rates and sets out three use cases for FXI that are tied to specific frictions. It explores the use of FXI as part of an overall policy response, allowing the advice to differ with shocks, frictions, and country-specific circumstances.
Keywords:
Capital flows; Exchange rates; Foreign exchange intervention; Macroprudential Policy; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Integrated Policy Framework; FX mismatch; policy discussion; staff advice; IPF friction; IPF policy; Currency markets; Exchange rate adjustments; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
ECB Euro Liquidity Lines
Silvia Albrizio
,
Iván Kataryniuk
,
Luis Molina
, and
Jan Schäfer
Central bank liquidity lines have gained momentum since the global financial crisis as a crosscurrency liquidity management tool. We provide a complete timeline of the ECB liquidity line announcements and study their signalling and spillback effects. The announcement of an ECB euro liquidity line decreases the premium paid by foreign agents to borrow euros in FX markets relative to currencies not covered by these facilities by 51 basis points. Consistent with a stylized model, bank equity prices increase by around 1.75% in euro area countries highly exposed via banking linkages to countries whose currencies are targeted by liquidity lines.
Keywords:
liquidity facilities; central bank swap and repo lines; spillbacks.; ECB liquidity line announcement; ECB Euro liquidity line; cross-currency liquidity management tool; central bank liquidity line; Liquidity; Currencies; Currency markets; Currency swaps; Asset prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: Representative Rate for the Euro
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper on Republic of Croatia focuses on representative rate for the Euro. The Council of the European Union decided on July 12, 2022 that the Republic of Croatia had fulfilled the necessary conditions for adoption of the euro with effect from January 1, 2023, and that the conversion rate should be set at 7.53450 Croatian kuna per one euro. The Croatian authorities notified the IMF on October 5, 2022, that the euro will be their country’s currency, effective from January 1, 2023. After consultations with the Croatian authorities, it is proposed that the approach used to determine the representative exchange rate for the other euro area members to be similarly extended to the Republic of Croatia.
Keywords:
representative exchange rate; capital markets department; copyright page; representative rate; exchange arrangement; Exchange rates; Capital markets
Cover Departmental Papers
Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets
Mr. Marco Arena
,
Mr. Rudolfs Bems
,
Mr. Nadeem Ilahi
,
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
,
William Lindquist
, and
Mr. Tonny Lybek
Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the 2020 pandemic. The common main goals were to address market dysfunction and impaired monetary transmission, distinct from the quantitative easing conducted by major advanced economy central banks. Likely reflecting the global nature of the crisis, these APPs defied the traditional emerging market concern of destabilizing the exchange rate or inflation expectations and instead alleviated markets successfully. We uncover some evidence that APPs in European emerging markets stabilized government bond markets and boosted equity prices, with no indication of exchange rate pressure. Examining global and domestic factors that could limit the usability of APPs, in the event of renewed market dysfunction we see a potential scope for scaling up APPs in most European emerging markets that used APPs during the pandemic, provided that they remain consistent with the primary objective of monetary policy and keep a safe distance from the risk of fiscal dominance. As central banks in the region move towards monetary policy tightening, the tapering, ending, and unwinding of APPs must also be carefully considered. Clear and transparent communication is critical at each step of the process, from the inception to the closure of APPs, particularly when a large shock hits and triggers a major policy shift.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; Emerging markets; COVID-19 pandemic; Europe; asset purchase programs; emerging market concern; IMF library; market dysfunction; emerging market central banks; Yield curve; Government securities; Sovereign bonds; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Whatever It Takes: Europe’s Response to COVID-19
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic loss of human life and major damage to the European economy, but thanks to an exceptionally strong policy response, potentially devastating outcomes have been avoided.

Keywords:
lockdowns; pandemic; corporate liquidity; recovery; reopening; economic outlook; forecasting; REO; policy support; infection curve; job retention program; Europe transform; financial market disruption; pandemic economy; solvency risks in Europe; time trend; reopening indices; infection incidence; reinfection risk; infection rate; credit access; containment policy; COVID-19; Liquidity; Solvency; Infrastructure; Europe; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows—The Role of Macroprudential Policies
International Monetary Fund
Capital flows can deliver substantial benefits for countries, but also have the potential to contribute to a buildup of systemic financial risk. Benefits, such as enhanced investment and consumption smoothing, tend to be greater for countries whose financial and institutional development enables them to intermediate capital flows safely. Post-crisis reforms, including the development of macroprudential policies (MPPs), are helping to strengthen the resilience of financial systems including to shocks from capital flows. The Basel III process has improved the quality and level of capital, reduced leverage, and increased liquid asset holdings in financial systems. Drawing on and complementing such international reforms at the national level, robust macroprudential policy frameworks focused on mitigating systemic risk can improve the capacity of a financial system to safely intermediate cross-border flows. Macroprudential frameworks can play an important role over the capital flow cycle, and help members harness the benefits of capital flows. Introducing macroprudential measures (MPMs) preemptively can increase the resilience of the financial system to aggregate shocks, including those arising from capital inflows, and can contain the build-up of systemic vulnerabilities over time, even when such measures are not designed to limit capital flows. While the risks from capital outflows should be handled primarily by macroeconomic policies, a relaxation of MPMs may assist, as long as buffers are in place, in countering financial stresses from outflows. Capital flow liberalization should be supported by broad efforts to strengthen prudential regulation and supervision, including macroprudential policy frameworks. The Fund has two frameworks to help ensure that its advice on MPPs and policies related to capital flows is consistent and tailored to country circumstances. The frameworks (the Macroprudential framework and the Institutional View on capital flows) are consistent in terms of key principles, including avoiding using MPMs and capital flow management measures (CFMs) as a substitute for necessary macroeconomic adjustment. The appropriate classification of measures is important to ensure targeted advice consistent with the two frameworks. The conceptual framework for the assessment of measures laid out in this paper will assist staff in properly identifying MPMs and measures that are designed to limit capital flows and to reduce systemic financial risk stemming from such flows (CFM/MPMs), and thereby ensure the appropriate application of the Fund’s frameworks, so that staff policy advice is consistent and well targeted. The Fund will continue to develop and share expertise in using MPMs, and integrate these findings into its surveillance and technical assistance, which should contribute to building international understanding and experience on these issues.
Keywords:
PP; capital flow; liberalization; capital; macroprudential measure; paper; systemic risk; flow liberalization; liquidity tool; financial crisis; Capital flows; Systemic risk; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Capital inflows; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights Bulgaria’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) sector and to assess its performance in a regional perspective. A detailed and rich firm-level dataset of state-owned and private firms was compiled for this note to compare key performance indicators of SOEs to private firms in the same sector and to similar firms in Croatia and Romania for a regional comparison. In some network industries, such as energy, SOEs are heavily loss-making. Large amounts of debt have been piled up notably in the energy and transport sectors which, to the extent that it is classified outside the general government accounts, can pose significant risk to public finances in the form of contingent liabilities if the SOEs run into financial difficulties. SOE profitability and resource allocation efficiency largely lag private firms in the same sectors, even when isolating SOEs engaged in competitive market activities and hence classified outside of general government. Coupled with comparably poor output quality, these challenges have the potential to impair competitiveness and productivity across the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bond yield; firm; Bulgaria; ECB policy rate; Bulgaria yield regression; currency bond yield; interbank market rate; insolvency process; ECB policy action; interest rate; Solvency; Aging; Public enterprises; Bond yields; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Simple Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer
Mr. Daniel C Hardy
and
Philipp Hochreiter
A mechanism is proposed that aims to reduce the risk of a banking sector liquidity crisis—which is a quintessentially systemic event and thus the object of macroprudential policy—and moderate the effects of a crisis should one occur. The instrument would give banks more incentive to build up buffers of systemically liquid assets as a proportion of their total liabilities, yet these buffers would be usable in times of stress. The modalities of the instrument are considered with a view to making it effective, efficient, and robust.
Keywords:
WP; bank; LMC; MPLB requirement; Macroprudential instruments; liquidity; bank funding; systemic risk; liquidity shock; liquidity characteristic; liquidity spiral; liquidity ring fencing; liquidity condition; liquidity outflow; liquidity property; liquidity strain; through-the-cycle MPLB level; MPLB balance; liquidity mis-match; Liquidity requirements; Liquidity risk; Reserve requirements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion —Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (Bah) economy started to lose steam in early 2012 as growth slowed in Europe. Intensification of the euro area crisis further affected Bin's growth outlook. However, measures such as limiting the expenditure at the central government level and targeting overall general government spending by 1 percentage point of GDP in 2013 aim to improve the economy. Comprehensive reforms of rights-based benefits are also identified, which are imperative for both medium-term fiscal sustainability and improving the functioning of labor markets.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; agency; Bosnia-Herzegovina; banking supervision agency; RS government; economic policy coordination; home-country supervisor; government financing; disbursement of SDR; Financial derivatives and employee stock options (financial account); Securities; Pension spending; Capital spending; Europe