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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 364 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China x
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Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Strengthening Cybersecurity: Lessons from the Cybersecurity Survey
Rangachary Ravikumar
This technical note and manual (TNM) draws lessons from cybersecurity surveys conducted by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) to provide advice to central banks, supervisory authorities and policy makers seeking to strengthen cybersecurity of their financial sectors. The TNM covers various measures adopted by central banks and supervisory authorities, lessons learned from the survey results, and further efforts to be made in strengthening cybersecurity, besides providing references to work by international standard setting bodies. Concerted efforts are needed to (i) develop national and financial sector focused cybersecurity strategies; (ii) build cyber risk regulatory and supervisory capacity; and (iii) address resource constraints. Legal and regulatory clarity regarding supervisory powers; adequate attention by top management; and resource augmentation will help supervisory authorities address existing gaps in these areas. Central banks and supervisory authorities also need to develop processes to better understand the threat landscape on a continuous basis. Capacity needs to be augmented in: (i) conducting cyber exercises and tests; (ii) helping build sector-wide incident response capabilities; and (iii) building cyber maps. In addition, special attention is needed towards establishing and nurturing robust institutional arrangements, in terms of enabling legal provisions to criminalize cyberattacks and establishing Computer Emergency Response Teams and Financial Sector CERTs.
Keywords:
cybersecurity; national cyber strategy; financial sector cyber strategy; cyber incidents; operational resilience; cyber resilience; cyber risk regulation; cybersecurity preparedness index; cybersecurity survey; cybersecurity strategy; strengthening cybersecurity; IMF library; Cyber risk; Financial sector; Financial stability assessment; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Global; Caribbean; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR)’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following three years of recession since 2019. The removal of coronavirus disease (COVID)-related restrictions in early 2023 resulted in a strong rebound in domestic demand and inbound tourism in 2023H1, and decline in unemployment rate to historical lows. The outlook is subject to high uncertainty, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. Key downside risks include a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Mainland China due to escalation of trade tensions or a deeper and more protracted adjustment in the property market. Tighter-for-longer monetary policy in the United States, rising geoeconomic fragmentation pressures, and increased regional competition could also weigh on growth. Continued efforts are needed to address long-term challenges posed by climate change. In order to mitigate the risk of falling short of emissions reduction targets, the authorities should prioritize regional collaboration with Mainland China to develop zero-carbon energy and improve energy efficiency in aging and poorly maintained buildings.
Keywords:
consultation discussion; exchange regime; surveillance topic; rate of HK; surveillance effort; Housing; Housing prices; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Central Bank Digital Currency: Progress And Further Considerations
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The paper briefs the Executive Board on the further considerations on CBDC. These cover the positioning of CBDC in the payments landscape, cyber resilience of the CBDC ecosystem, CBDC adoption, CBDC data use and privacy protection, implications for monetary policy operations, and cross-border payments with retail CBDC.
Keywords:
Capacity development; CBDC; Central bank digital currencies; Adoption; Collaboration; Cross-border payments; Cyber resilience; Data use and privacy protection; Monetary operations; Payment systems; Positioning CBDC; CBDC data; CBDC system; CBDC adoption; CBDC design; data use; position CBDC vis-à-vis; Digital financial services; Monetary base; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2024
Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2024
Asia and Pacific: Resilient Growth but Higher Risks
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Short-term prospects for Asia and the Pacific have improved slightly compared to the IMF’s April forecasts, even though growth is still expected to moderate in 2024 and 2025. The regional growth projection for 2024 has been marked up to 4.6 percent from 4.5 percent in April, largely reflecting the over-performance in the first half of the year, and the region is forecast to contribute roughly 60 percent to global growth in 2024. In 2025, more accommodative monetary conditions are expected to support activity, resulting in a slight upward growth revision to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent in April. Inflation has retreated in much of the region. At the same time, risks have increased, reflecting rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the strength of global demand, and potential for financial volatility. Demographic change will act increasingly as a brake on activity, though structural shifts into high-productivity sectors such as tradable services hold promise to sustain robust growth.

Keywords:
Asia and the Pacific; growth; inflation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; China; AE Asia; emerging economy; headline inflation; foreign direct investment; monetary management; Asia EMDEs; EM Asia; Pacific island economy; ASEAN region; export opportunity; exports to the world; monetary policy response; Exports; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Foreign direct investment; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; Central Asia
Cover Fiscal Monitor, October 2024
Fiscal Monitor, October 2024
Putting a Lid on Public Debt
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Global public debt is elevated. It is projected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024 and will rise over the medium term. This chapter shows that risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside. In a severely adverse scenario, global debt is estimated to be nearly 20 percentage points of GDP higher three years ahead than the baseline projection, reaching 115 percent of GDP. Much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt with high probability. Now is an opportune time for rebuilding fiscal buffers and delaying is costly. Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and strengthening fiscal governance is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability.

Keywords:
public debt; debt-at-risk; sovereign yields; fiscal adjustment; fiscal framework; fiscal governance; unidentified debt; contingent liabilities; economy abbreviation; debt restructuring process; inflation expectation; growth resilience; debt vulnerability; emerging market economy; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Public sector; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; Middle East
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Embedded in Nature: Nature-Related Economic and Financial Risks and Policy Considerations
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
,
William Oman
,
Jamie Fraser
,
Mariza Montes de Oca Leon
, and
Bella Yao
The economy is embedded in, and dependent on, nature. Yet economic activity is degrading nature at an unprecedented pace. Interacting with climate change, nature loss and transformation generates significant threats to the global economy and financial system. However, work on the implications of nature-related risks for macroeconomic and financial sector policies remains at an early stage. This note seeks to contribute to this emerging policy space in three main ways: (i) it proposes a conceptual framework for understanding nature-related risks by mapping out macroeconomic transmission channels, emphasizing their impact on the economy and financial systems through “double materiality;” (ii) it conducts empirical analysis, finding that nearly 38 percent of bank loans of the 100 largest global banks are to harmful subsidies-dependent sectors and 44 percent are exposed to conservation areas under the Global Biodiversity Framework, and that industries most exposed to nature degradation are not well prepared to manage these risks; and (iii) it discusses takeaways for macroeconomic and financial sector policies and frameworks.
Keywords:
nature; environment; macroeconomics; macroeconomic policies; financial stability; banks; nature-related risks; financial regulation; financial supervision; Minsky moment; ecosystem services; planetary boundaries.; IMF staff climate note; ecosystem service; biodiversity loss; biodiversity conservation; biodiversity hotspot; Environmental policy; Climate change; Financial sector policy; Natural resources; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Green Bonds: A Catalyst for Sustainable Debt Market Development?
Gong Cheng
,
Torsten Ehlers
,
Frank Packer
, and
Yanzhe Xiao
In traditional bond markets, sovereign bonds provide benchmarks and serve as catalysts for the corporate bond market development. Contrary to the usual sequence of bond market development, sovereign issuers are latecomers to sustainable bond markets. Yet, our empirical study finds that sovereign green bond issuance can have quantitative and qualitative benefits for the development of private sustainable bond markets. Our results suggest that both the number and the size of corporate green bond issuance increase more in a jurisdiction after the sovereign debut. The results are more pronounced in countries with stronger climate policies. Sovereign green bond issuance also improves the quality of green verification standards in the corporate bond market more generally, consistent with the aim of fostering third-party reviews and promoting best practice in green reporting and verification. Finally, our work provides evidence that the sovereign debut increases liquidity and diminishes yield spreads of corporate green bonds in the same jurisdiction.
Keywords:
Green bonds; sustainable bonds; sovereign debt; taxonomies; green verification; bond market development; bond issuance; corporate bond bond market; issuance increase; sustainable bond markets; Climate finance; Corporate bonds; Sovereign bonds; Securities markets; Bond yields; Global; East Asia
Cover Fiscal Monitor, April 2024
Fiscal Monitor, April 2024
Fiscal Policy in the Great Election Year
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Even as the global economic outlook is stabilizing, fiscal policy continues to struggle with legacies of high debt and deficits, while facing new challenges. Public finances risks are acute this year as over 80 economies and economic areas are holding elections, amid increased support for high government spending. Financing conditions remain challenging, while spending pressures to address structural challenges are becoming more pressing. Countries should boost long-term growth with a well-designed fiscal policy mix to promote innovation more broadly, including fundamental research, and facilitate technology diffusion. Durable fiscal consolidation efforts are needed to safeguard sustainable public finances and rebuild buffers.

Keywords:
Innovation; technology diffusion; growth; industrial policy; green economy; artificial intelligence; economy abbreviation; interest rate hike; debt restructuring processes; inflation expectation; statistics manual; Fiscal stance; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Government finance statistics; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
Bada Han
,
Rashad Ahmed
,
Joshua Aizenman
, and
Yothin Jinjarak
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Keywords:
Sectoral Debt; Household Debt; Dollar Cycle; Emerging Markets; debt growth; household debt growth; debt level; appreciation shock; debt cycle; Business cycles; Consumption; Income; Global