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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Gambia hosted the 15th Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in early May 2024—the second largest intergovernmental organization in the world. Economic recovery is strengthening, while inflation has trended down, albeit slowly. Despite strong revenue collection efforts, the fiscal outcome for 2024H1 was weighed down by the costs of hosting the OIC Summit and emergency support to the National Water and Electricity Corporation (NAWEC). The foreign exchange market continues to function smoothly, and foreign reserves remain at a comfortable level. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents The Gambia’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Economic activity continued to recover robustly. Inflation eased but remains well above the central bank’s medium-term objective. Following the adoption of a new foreign exchange policy, the wedge between the official and parallel market exchange rates has largely closed. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions. Performance under program has been satisfactory. Continued implementation of the reforms will help address medium- and long-term macroeconomic challenges and catalyze additional financing from development partners and the private sector. The central bank will maintain a tight monetary policy stance to ensure that inflation firmly declines. It will also continue close implementation of the recently introduced foreign exchange policy to prevent reoccurrence of forex shortages and any wedge with the parallel market. Finally, structural reforms will be pursued and accelerated, particularly on revenue administration, public financial management, state-owned enterprises management, governance, and business environment.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights The Gambia’s Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. The IMF Executive Board decision allows for an immediate disbursement of funds to the Gambia to help meet the country’s financing needs, address the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, and support the post-pandemic recovery. The exogenous shocks continue to weigh on the country’s socio-economic environment, impeding vigorous economic activity. Inflation pressures persist. The Gambian authorities are taking measures to address the exogenous shocks and remain committed to strong policies and reforms. The fiscal policy in 2023 will remain anchored on the adopted budget despite multiple shocks, given high debt vulnerabilities. The necessary measures will be taken to this end, including the collection of some significant budgetary resources. Finally, structural reforms will be pursued and accelerated, particularly on revenue administration, public financial management, state-owned enterprises management, governance, and anti-corruption.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts about food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. The paper describes regional aspects of Nigeria’s food insecurity and compares the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 and the war in Ukraine on food security in Nigeria and other countries. It also provides an overview of agricultural production and consumption in Nigeria. The paper investigates the drivers of food security using an empirical cross-country framework including demand, supply, and price factors, and offers thoughts on policies to improve agricultural yields and production. The important role of inputs is evident in the policy experience of comparator countries. Nigeria has achieved a substantial increase in agricultural production associated with its policies but some have been less successful. Import dependency for key staples has not fallen and the cost of these agricultural products remains driven by international prices. Further, central bank credit to the agricultural sector has not succeeded in increasing production beyond the stimulus of high rainfall and high food prices.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The IMF Executive Board approved, on March 23, 2020, a 39-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement in the amount of SDR 35 million (56.3 percent of quota) for The Gambia. The Gambia benefited from a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement of SDR 15.55 million (25 percent of quota) approved on April 15, 2020 and is receiving debt service relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) expected to total SDR 7.9 million (SDR 4.2 million of which has already been approved), to help meet heightened balance-of-payments and fiscal financing needs due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While indicators point to a domestic weakening of the pandemic, the authorities are seeking an ECF augmentation of SDR 20 million (32.15 percent of quota) to meet balance-of-payments needs arising from fiscal measures to stimulate the economic recovery in 2021, strengthen public health preparedness, increase social spending to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. They are also requesting a waiver of nonobservance of a continuous performance criterion (a zero ceiling) on new external payment arrears of the central government.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the macrofinancial linkages in The Gambia. Significant macrofinancial linkages persist in The Gambia, first and foremost between the public sector and the banks. Banks are highly exposed to the government through large holdings of short-term government debt, which is a legacy of the large financing needs of the previous administration. In addition, large claims have built up between government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on the one hand, and banks and the corporate sector including SOEs on the other. There has been persistent financial distress within the SOE cluster. Weak SOE performance has also led to arrears both to central government and within the SOE cluster.
Mr. Slavi T Slavov
There are 22 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. Some target the money supply or the inflation rate; others practice "managed floating." Statistical analysis on monthly data for the past decade reveals that in most cases these exchange rate regimes can be approximated surprisingly well by a soft peg to a basket dominated by the US dollar. The weight on the dollar appears to have fallen somewhat across the continent in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Replicating the model with weekly data for The Gambia suggests that the focus on the dollar might be even more pronounced at higher data frequencies. While there might be strong arguments in favor of limiting exchange rate volatility in SSA countries, soft-pegging to the dollar does not appear to be the best fit for them, given the currency structure of their external trade and finance. The paper concludes by discussing some policy options for SSA countries with flexible exchange rates, in the context of an illustrative recent country case.
Olatundun Janet Adelegan
and
Bozena Radzewicz-Bak
This study empirically analyzes the determinants of bond market development in a cross section of 23 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries between 1990 and 2008. It considers the stage of development and the size of the bond market, as well as the historical, structural, institutional and macroeconomic factors driving bond market development in SSA. The study finds that the savings constraint is a key impediment to domestic bond markets development as well as financial market deepening, as it results in a low level of financial intermediation by the banks. Overall, the results show that a confluence of factors matters for the development of domestic bond markets in SSA; these include structure of the economy, investment profile, law and order, size of the banking sector, the level of economic development, and various macroeconomic factors. Policy implications include increased efforts to strengthen the investment environment and the need for a regional approach to bond market development.
Mr. Bernard J Laurens

Abstract

The most salient trend in monetary policy over the past two decades has been increasing reliance on money market operations, which reflects the belief that allowing market forces to allocate financial resources brings about increased economic efficiency and growth. However, small economies and countries with undeveloped financial markets have found that a lack of competition in their financial markets complicates their efforts to rely on money market operations, at times forcing them to rely instead on direct instruments or moral suasion. In some larger countries, the shift toward a reliance on money market operations has been gradual and, at times, fraught with difficulty. This report draws on a variety of country experiences to analyze the reasons for such difficulties and proposes a stylized sequencing of reforms that enables countries to tailor the introduction of money market operations to their particular circumstances.

Mr. Jakob E Christensen
This study discusses the role of domestic debt markets in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) based on a new dataset covering 27 SSA countries during the 20-year period 1980-2000. The study finds that domestic debt markets in these countries are generally small, highly short-term in nature, and often have a narrow investor base. Domestic interest payments present a significant burden to the budget, despite much smaller domestic than foreign indebtedness. The use of domestic debt is also found to have significantly crowded out private sector lending. Finally, the study identifies significant differences between the size, cost, and maturity structure of domestic debt markets in HIPCs and non-HIPCs.