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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s economy lost momentum in 2023. The external position weakened, with the current account shifting to a deficit and foreign reserve accumulation slowing. While inflation continued to ease, it remained elevated. Available data indicate a deterioration in the underlying fiscal positions of many countries. The near-term outlook points to stronger economic activity, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024, supported by elevated oil prices and a rebound in oil output. However, the end-June 2024 regional policy assurance on NFA––and, according to preliminary information, the end-December 2024 targets––were not met, indicating a deviation in reserves from the targeted path. Debt vulnerabilities have also worsened in some countries, as evidenced by the growing pressures in the regional government debt market. Following the strong commitment expressed at the extraordinary Heads of State Summit in December 2024 to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen regional institutions, all countries are expected to tackle fiscal slippages, restore fiscal prudence, and implement structural reforms to steer the region toward a more resilient medium-term outlook. This should help reduce risks to the capacity to repay the Fund. However, the projections remain uncertain, as the details of corrective measures and reforms are still being finalized between staff and national authorities.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; CEMAC country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC heads of state; policy assurance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Government securities; Fiscal stance; Global; Central Africa
Cover Policy Papers
2024 Review Of The Fund’s Transparency Policy And Open Archives Policy—Background Paper 3 On Key Concepts And Supportive Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
On November 15, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy and approved a number of reforms. As an international institution, making important documents available to the public on timely basis enhances the IMF’s credibility, accountability, and effectiveness and is critical to fulfill its mandate of promoting global economic and financial stability. While transparency at the IMF is achieved through a range of policies and practices, the Transparency Policy and the Open Archives Policy form the core elements of the IMF’s transparency framework. The Fund has come a long way since the inception of these policies in the early nineties. Most Board documents are now published, published more quickly, and under more consistent and evenhanded application of modification rules. The information available in the Fund’s archives has increased and is more easily accessible to the public. While experience suggests that these policies are effective in delivering on their objectives, the landscape in which the Fund operates has evolved since these policies were last reviewed in 2013. In a more interconnected and shock-prone world the pace with which policymakers need to make decisions has accelerated and the expectations of stakeholders on the availability and timeliness of the Fund’s analysis and policy advice has grown. Against this backdrop, the 2024 Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy focuses on targeted reforms to (i) support faster publication of board documents and communications of Board’s decisions; (ii) strengthen the rules and processes to modify Board documents prior to publication; and (iii) allow faster release of some documents in the Fund’s archives accessible to the public. The reforms further clarify the scope and objectives of these policies, their implementation processes, and how to strengthen knowledge sharing. The review was supported by data analysis as well as surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, including Executive Directors, country authorities, IMF missions chiefs, and civil society organizations as detailed in the three background papers accompanying this 2024 review.
Keywords:
Accountability; Archives; Communication; Independence; Lending; Modification Rules; Publication; Surveillance Transparency; IMF's Transparency policy; publication regime; fund staff; Board document; i. staff guidance; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Civil society organizations; Poverty reduction strategy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents a report on the common policies in support of member countries reform programs in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The CEMAC’s economy lost some momentum in 2023 and the external position deteriorated somewhat, while inflation cooled but remained high. Updated statistics revealed a much more deteriorated fiscal situation than originally estimated. In the absence of decisive corrective actions, and with current policies unchanged, fiscal and external imbalances are set to widen in the medium term, threatening to reverse reserve accumulation and add to financial stability risks. Decisive corrective policies are warranted to address the sustained fiscal slippages and return to fiscal prudence. In order to boost potential output, faster progress is needed on strengthening anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism, governance, and regulatory policies, as well as improving human capital, the business climate, the rule of law, financial inclusion, and regional infrastructure.
Keywords:
CEMAC member country; CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; policy rate hike; IMF's transparency policy; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Fiscal stance; Financial sector stability; Arrears; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Communauté économique et monétaire d’Afrique centrale (CEMAC): politiques communes en appui aux programmes de réforme des pays membres-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI; annexe d’information; déclaration de l’administrateur
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
La reprise économique de la CEMAC s’est accélérée en 2022 à la faveur de la hausse des prix des hydrocarbures. La position extérieure s’est renforcée et les réserves de change augmentent rapidement, quoique demeurant en deçà des niveaux adéquats. La récente baisse des réserves extérieures nécessite des mesures plus énergiques pour resserrer les conditions de liquidité, un respect plus strict de la réglementation des changes par les pays membres et un renforcement de la discipline budgétaire. Les positions budgétaires hors pétrole sous-jacentes se sont toutefois également détériorées. Il sera donc nécessaire d’accélérer les réformes structurelles, de corriger les dérapages budgétaires récents et de ramener les politiques publiques en ligne avec les objectifs des programmes appuyés par le FMI et les conseils des services du FMI. Ces actions seront nécessaires pour accroître la capacité de résistance de la région à la volatilité des prix des hydrocarbures, à l’instabilité financière, à l’inflation persistante, au resserrement des conditions financières, à l’insécurité alimentaire, aux conflits internes et à l’insécurité, ainsi qu’aux événements climatiques.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses common policies of member countries, and common policies in support of member countries reform programs in Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). In order to preserve price stability and strengthen external buffers, maintain a data-dependent monetary policy with a tightening bias; further increase interest rates on liquidity absorption and gradually converge toward the main policy rate, and switch to a full allotment procedure; and resolve remaining issues to a complete and effective implementation of the foreign exchange regulations. The CEMAC economy continued to recover, supported by favorable hydrocarbon prices, strengthening its external position. Global inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, though remain elevated, while continued tightening of financial conditions could put a dent on economic growth. Maintaining fiscal consolidation paths consistent with IMF-supported programs and surveillance advice, and accelerating structural reforms are critical for boosting economic diversification and resilience. In order to lift potential growth and enhance economic diversification and resilience, accelerate structural reforms in areas of governance and regulation; productivity-enhancing investments; and deepen regional trade integration.
Keywords:
CEMAC country authorities; CEMAC member country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC authority; CEMAC authorities; Liquidity; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Foreign exchange regulations; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Staff Report on the Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Central African Economic and Monetary Community’s (CEMAC) IMF Staff report on Common Policies of Member Countries and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs. The positive terms-of-trade shock amidst the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine has broadly benefited CEMAC, reinforcing its external position and gradual post-pandemic recovery. Regional authorities tightened monetary policy and normalized prudential regulation in 2022, while continuing to advance the reform agenda. Global inflation pressures have passed through to domestic prices, putting pressure on real incomes. Rebuilding buffers and sustaining a recovery that protects the most vulnerable will require stricter adherence to budget and reform plans consistent with IMF-supported programs and policy advice; this will ensure that part of the oil windfall is saved. Implementation of these policies in current favorable conditions is critical to strengthening resilience in the face of rising risks, including most notably to food security, debt vulnerabilities, and tightening of global financial conditions. A prudent management of the oil windfall and faster progress on deep structural and governance reforms are pivotal for laying the foundations for a more diversified, inclusive, and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; IMF article; CEMAC country; consultation discussion; CEMAC member country; Oil prices; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Liquidity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
CEMAC ended 2021 in a fragile external position, with gross reserves at only 2.7 months of prospective imports and net foreign assets (NFA) at their lowest level in decades, despite the availability of Fund financing, the SDR allocation, and monetary policy tightening. The terms of trade shock this year is expected to be broadly positive for CEMAC. This more favorable outlook is, however, subject to heightened external uncertainties associated with the fallout from the war in Ukraine (notably global inflation pressure, global growth uncertainties, and high oil price volatility), faster-than-anticipated global financial tightening, possible emergence of new COVID strains and risks from cryptoassets. Current high oil prices, if sustained, will help rebuild fiscal and external buffers, provided fiscal policies remain prudent. Shielding vulnerable populations from soaring energy and food prices adds to the complexity of navigating this uncertain environment, given CEMAC’s already limited policy options.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; liquidity management framework; CEMAC member states; recapitalization procedure; monetary policy tightening; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Liquidity; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release, Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Despite a more favorable external environment, marked by the rebound in global growth, fast-increasing oil prices, and unprecedented Fund financial support, CEMAC is ending 2021 in a fragile external position. Net external reserves fell throughout 2021 to reach their lowest level in decades, and gross reserves are just above three months of imports of goods and services. The launch of a second phase of the regional strategy at the August 2021 CEMAC Heads of States summit saw renewed commitments to accelerate structural, transparency, and governance reforms. The resumption of program engagements with the Fund, combined with high oil prices and significant fiscal adjustments in 2022, should allow for a turnaround, and the build-up in external reserves is expected to resume in 2022. Risks include possible adverse pandemic developments, oil price volatility, possible fiscal slippages, shortfall in external financing, and security issues.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; CEMAC country; policy measure; CEMAC member country; further policy commitment; fiscal consolidation policy; Liquidity; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Monetary base; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Central African Economic and Monetary Community’s (CEMAC) Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs. CEMAC ended 2021 in a fragile external position, with gross reserves at only 2.7 months of prospective imports and net foreign assets at their lowest level in decades, despite the availability of Fund financing, the SDR allocation, and monetary policy tightening. The terms of trade shock this year is expected to be broadly positive for CEMAC. This more favorable outlook is, however, subject to heightened external uncertainties associated with the fallout from the war in Ukraine, faster-than-anticipated global financial tightening, possible emergence of new coronavirus disease strains and risks from crypto-assets. This report suggests to seize the opportunity offered by high oil prices to rebuild both fiscal and external buffers. Social safety nets should be strengthened to protect vulnerable populations from the effects of soaring energy, food, and fertilizer prices. The paper also recommends to normalizing the prudential framework by end-June 2022 as planned and ensures that banks account for sovereign risk adequately.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; Policy recommendation; liquidity management framework; CEMAC member states; recapitalization procedure; monetary policy tightening; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Liquidity; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Eurobond Liquidity and Yields
Mr. Daniel C Hardy
Market liquidity is of value to both investors and issuers of securities, and is therefore a crucial factor in asset pricing. For the important asset class of Eurobonds, significant feedback from liquidity to pricing is established, and it is shown that bid-ask spreads (a proxy for market liquidity) and yields are closely related to bond characteristics such as issue volume, time to maturity, the inclusion of collective action clauses, and the jurisdiction of issuance. Debt management offices can choose these characteristics in a way that has economically significant and persistent effects on both liquidity and pricing.
Keywords:
Eurobond yields; bid-ask spread; liquidity; debt management; instrument design; Log yield determinant; Eurobond liquidity; market liquidity; debt management office; summary statistics; Bonds; Credit ratings; Collective action clauses; Bond yields; Global