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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Estonia, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Competitiveness and Productivity in the Baltics: Common Shocks, Different Implications
Saioa Armendariz
,
Carlos de Resende
,
Alice Fan
,
Gianluigi Ferrucci
,
Bingjie Hu
,
Sadhna Naik
, and
Can Ugur
This paper examines competitiveness and productivity in the Baltics. Focusing on recent developments, it asks why Russia’s war in Ukraine led to a prolonged recession and strong decline in competitiveness in Estonia, while Latvia and Lithuania shielded their economies more effectively. The paper starts by documenting a deterioration in export performance across the region. Using a constant share decomposition, it finds that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia’s declining export share has been mainly linked to a reduction in the ‘intensive margin’—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. Multivariate filtering techniques and estimates of the real effective exchange rates based on historical productivity trends, consistent with Balassa-Samuelson, confirm that differences in long-term total factor productivity growth have affected external competitiveness. While Estonia’s post-GFC slowdown in productivity growth and real exchange rate appreciation have eroded its competitive edge, Latvia and Lithuania have shown greater resilience, aided by more balanced real effective exchange rates and, for Lithuania, stronger corporate balance sheets. A micro-econometric analysis further reveals that resource misallocation, particularly in the services sector, has been a key driver of declining productivity in the region. These findings underscore the need for targeted reforms to improve allocative efficiency, boost productivity, and restore competitiveness in the Baltic region.
Keywords:
Export shares; Competitiveness; Productivity; Baltics; export share; productivity in the Baltic; resource misallocation; productivity trend; TFP dynamics; TFP deceleration; Total factor productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nordic-Baltic Regional Report: Technical Assistance Report-Nordic-Baltic Technical Assistance Project Financial Flows Analysis, AML/CFT Supervision, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
Keywords:
TF risk assessment; colleges participation; TF risk; EU Anti-Money Laundering Authority; supervisory cooperation; information Sharin; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Virtual currencies; Correspondent banking; Internal controls; Financial sector stability; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Denmark: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Denmark
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Much of the work of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) was conducted prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the FSAP’s focus on medium-term challenges and vulnerabilities, however, many of its findings and recommendations for strengthening policy and institutional frameworks remain pertinent. This report reflects key developments and policy changes since the FSAP mission work was completed, and includes illustrative scenarios to quantify the possible implications of the COVID-19 shock on the solvency of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs). Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Danish authorities had taken important steps to improve financial system resilience. The authorities had actively used macroprudential tools to bolster the robustness of the financial system. The supervision of the banking and insurance sectors had improved. Likewise, recent legislation has strengthened anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision. Major reforms such as a new bank resolution framework had also considerably improved Denmark’s financial safety net and crisis management frameworks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; th e DFSA; stress test endeavour; FSAP solvency stress test analysis; Danish authorities; financial system
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Capital Market Union for Europe
Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia
,
Ms. Srobona Mitra
,
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Luiza Antoun de Almeida
,
Cristina Cuervo
,
Mr. Andre O Santos
, and
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
This note weighs the merits of a capital market union (CMU) for Europe, identifies major obstacles in its path, and recommends a set of carefully targeted policy actions. European capital markets are relatively small, resulting in strong bank-dependence, and are split sharply along national lines. Results include an uneven playing field in terms of corporate funding costs, the rationing out of collateral-constrained firms, and limited shock absorption. The benefits of integration center on expanding financial choice, ultimately to support capital formation and resilience. Capital market development and integration would support a healthy diversity in European finance. Proceeding methodically, the note identifies three key barriers to greater capital market integration in Europe: transparency, regulatory quality, and insolvency practices. Based on these findings, the note urges three policy priorities, focused on the three barriers. There is no roadblock—such steps should prove feasible without a new grand bargain.
Keywords:
SDN; EU counterparty; EU capital market practitioner; euro area; EU capital market rule; EU treaty; EU venture capital funds; Capital market union; financial integration; bilateral portfolio flows; monetary union; investment firm; funding cost; growth performance; private equity; equity valuation; capital market market fragmentation; nonfinancial firm; company information; Capital markets; Securities; Stocks; Mutual funds; Solvency; Europe; Global
Cover Fiscal Monitor, April 2018
Fiscal Monitor, April 2018
Capitalizing on Good Times
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

This report discusses fiscal trends in policies aimed at reducing fiscal vulnerabilities and boosting medium-term growth, recent fiscal developments and the fiscal outlook in advanced economies, emerging markets, and low-income developing countries; recent trends in government debt and analysis of changes in fiscal balances, revenue, and spending; potential fiscal risks; and growth from the fiscal policies. It also describes how digitalization can help governments improve implementation of current policy and widen the range of policy options, and opportunities and risks for fiscal policy, including improvements in policy implementation, the design of future policy, and how digitalization can create opportunities for fraud and increase government vulnerabilities.

Keywords:
FM; term id; debt; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; statistics manual; middle-income economy; value-added tax; reform agenda; Fiscal stance; Digitalization; Global; Africa; Middle East; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; government payment; tax authorities; financial crisis; trade gap; pricing system; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the impact of fast unit labor cost (ULC) growth in Estonia. ULCs in Estonia have now reached a level at which further unmitigated wage growth risks material damage to competitiveness and income convergence prospects with western Europe. This highlights the importance of making Estonia’s pro-productivity policies a success, but in the nearer term the onus is on mitigating excessive wage growth because in this area, Estonia, together with the other Baltics, distinguishes itself from the rest of central and eastern Europe. Tax policy can provide short-term relief.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; IMF staff calculation; labor; ULC growth; via-a-vis firm; statistics Estonia; firm age; labor productivity; competitiveness assessment; pro-productivity policy; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Employment; Labor productivity; Wages; Global; Western Europe; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance
International Monetary Fund
Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is key to understanding the macroeconomic outlook, identifying vulnerabilities, and tracing the transmission of potential shocks and policies. This paper reviews the use of balance sheet analysis in the Fund’s bilateral surveillance and introduces some practical examples of how it can be deepened. Recent evaluations of IMF surveillance––including the 2014 TSR––have emphasized the importance of strengthening balance sheet analysis and coverage of macro-financial issues. This paper is a first step that highlights useful examples of such analysis conducted by staff over the last decade, documents the data and tools that have been used, and mentions some limitations. In addition, it discusses recent improvements in the coverage and quality of balance sheet data through initiatives launched in the wake of the global crisis, as well as key remaining gaps, addressing which requires international collaboration.
Keywords:
PP; economy; asset; balance sheet; market; balance-sheet analysis; private sector; BSA matrix; sovereign bond; banking system; central bank; exchange rate; foreign exchange; interest rate; economic activity; mutual fund; credit risk; Financial statements; Balance sheet analysis; Financial sector; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Foreign currency exposure; Global; balance sheet data; B. addressing data gap; balance sheet analysis in fund surveillance; IMF surveillance; Sta team; balance sheets; Currencies
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dealing with Private Debt Distress in the Wake of the European Financial Crisis A Review of the Economics and Legal Toolbox
Ms. Yan Liu
and
Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg
The private non-financial sector in Europe is facing increased challenges in meeting its debt servicing obligation. In response, governments are revisiting legal tools and—in some cases—institutional arrangements to deal with over-indebtedness. For households, where the problem in some countries is large but no established best practice exists, reforms have generally sought to allow debtors a fresh start while minimizing moral hazard and preserving bank solvency and credit discipline. For the corporate sector, efforts have focused on facilitating debt restruturing (including through out of court mechanisms). Direct government intervention has been rare.
Keywords:
WP; country; government; procedure; court; track court approval procedure; private sector debt; household insolvency; corporate insolvency; government intervention; insolvency proceeding; a number of country; IMF country desk; court insolvency regime; government support scheme; Solvency; Debt restructuring; Private debt; Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This note presents estimates of potential growth and the output gap in Latvia. The estimates suggest that the output has marked below potential in the early 2000s but the output gap becomes positive and large after EU accession. With unemployment still well above its natural level, the output gap is estimated to be negative in 2012, but is expected to narrow gradually and be closed in the next 3–4 years. Potential growth is expected to be substantially lower than in 2002–07.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; estimate; labor market; output gap estimate; crisis; unemployment gap; vocational education; output gap in Latvia; Output gap; Potential output; Unemployment rate; Labor markets; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: 2010 Article IV Consultation Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia
International Monetary Fund
Policy efforts in Latvia have supported stabilization. Immediate risks are much lower, but medium-term challenges remain. The government should focus on durable spending cuts, but revenue measures may also be required. Efforts to strengthen regulation and supervision to improve financial stability, including reducing reliance on wholesale external funding, is commended. With monetary and fiscal policy constrained by the fixed exchange rate and the need to reduce the deficit, growth depends on structural reform. While economic and financial conditions are much improved, risks remain significant.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; end-June performance criteria; compromise proposal; proposal; debt; deficit rule; year-on-year inflation; cost saving; strategy paper; Competition; Loans; Fiscal stance; Western Europe; Global