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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 23 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Dataset of High-Frequency Monetary Policy Shocks
Marijn A. Bolhuis
,
Sonali Das
, and
Bella Yao
This paper presents a new dataset of monetary policy shocks for 21 advanced economies and 8 emerging markets from 2000-2022. We use daily changes in interest rate swap rates around central bank announcements to identify unexpected shocks to the path of monetary policy. The resulting series can be used to examine cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of monetary policy shocks. We establish a new empirical fact on monetary policy spillovers across countries: the monetary policy decisions of small open economy central banks, and not just major central banks, have substantial spillover effects on swap rates and bond yields in other countries.
Keywords:
monetary policy surprises; monetary policy shocks; central banks; central bank information effect; emerging markets; high-frequency method; spillovers; monetary policy spillovers; monetary policy spillover; monetary policy shock; information effect; monetary policy decision; monetary policy surprise; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Central bank policy rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Fiscal Consolidation Announcements Help Anchor Inflation Expectations?
Antonio David
,
Samuel Pienknagura
, and
Juan Yepez
In this paper, we use quarterly data and a novel database on fiscal policy consolidation announcements, for a sample of advanced economies and emerging markets to quantify the effects of fiscal tightening on inflation expectations. We find that fiscal consolidation announcements reduce inflation expectations over the medium-term (three and five-years ahead), but not in the short-term (one-year ahead). There is also some evidence that consolidation announcements reduce “disagreement” about expected future inflation at longer horizons. The inflation anchoring role of consolidation announcements is enhanced by the strength of a country’s fiscal and monetary frameworks, and when fiscal and monetary policy work in tandem. In addition, we find that initial conditions matter—inflation expectation’s response to consolidation announcements is larger in periods of high contemporaneous inflation. With these results in hand, we show that the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation in controlling realized inflation depends greatly on the response of inflation expectations to consolidation announcements. These results show that fiscal policy is crucial to anchor inflation expectations and a key element of a credible disinflationary process.
Keywords:
Fiscal Consolidations; Fiscal Policy; Inflation Expectations; Narrative Approach; inflation expectation; fiscal consolidation announcement; response to consolidation announcement; contemporaneous inflation; expectations to consolidation announcement; Inflation; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Inflation targeting; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks
Mr. Antonio David
and
Can Sever
Unanticipated changes in tax policy are likely to have different macroeconomic effects compared to anticipated changes due to several mechanisms, including fiscal foresight and policy uncertainty. It is therefore important to understand what drives such policy surprises. We explore the nature of unanticipated tax policy changes by focusing on a political economy determinant of those events, namely the timing of elections. Using monthly data for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets over the period 1990-2018, we show that implementation lags tend to be significantly longer for tax policy change announcements that are made during the pre-election periods, thereby leading to a lower likelihood of “tax news shocks”. We also find that implementation lags become much shorter for tax policy changes that are announced in the aftermath of elections, generating more frequent tax news shocks. This pattern remains similar for different tax measures or types of taxes. The findings are robust to a number of checks, including alternative definitions of tax news shocks, or to controlling for various economic and institutional factors.
Keywords:
Tax Shocks; Electoral Cycles; Political Economy; news shock; implementation lag; election period; change announcement; tax policy policy change; Probit models; Income tax systems; Consumption taxes; Corporate income tax; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting the Countercyclicality of Fiscal Policy
João Tovar Jalles
,
Mr. Youssouf Kiendrebeogo
,
Mr. Waikei R Lam
, and
Mr. Roberto Piazza
This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures on the degree of countercyclicality of fiscal policies for advanced and developing economies between 1980 and 2021. The use of time-varying measures of fiscal stabilization, with special attention to potential endogenity issues, overcomes the major limitation of previous studies and alllows the analysis to account for both country-specific as well as global factors. The paper also examines the key determinants of countercyclicality of fiscal policy with a focus on factors as severe crises, informality, financial development, and governance. Empirical results show that (i) fiscal policy tends to be more counter-cyclical during severe crises than typical recessions, especially for advanced economies; (ii) fiscal counter-cyclicality has increased over time for many economies over the last two decades; (iii) discretionary and automatic countercyclicality are both strong in advanced economies but acyclical (at times procyclical) in low-income countries, (iv) fiscal countercyclicality operates primarily through the expenditure channel, particularly for social benefits, (vi) better financial development, larger government size and stronger institutional quality are associated with larger countercyclical effects of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various specifications and endogeneity checks.
Keywords:
Countercyclical fiscal policy; automatic stabilizers; discretionary ficsal policy; fiscal multipliers; stabilization coefficients; local projection; Countercyclicality of fiscal policy; countercyclicality of fiscal policies; Countercyclicality coefficient; novel dataset; fiscal counter-cyclicality; government size; Fiscal stabilization; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2023: Safeguard Economic Stability, Support Vulnerable Countries, Sustain Our Future Prosperity
International Monetary Fund
The global economy is at another highly uncertain moment: tentative signs of stabilization earlier this year have receded, and the outlook is increasingly risky and uncertain. At the same time, divisions within and across countries are deepening, exacerbated by rising fragmentation. Strong policy action is needed together with pragmatic approaches to find areas of common ground to respond to shared challenges. The IMF is proactively engaging with our members to chart a clear course to a stronger and more sustainable path for the global economy.
Keywords:
support vulnerable country; Policy agenda; spring meetings 2023; future prosperity; vulnerable country; Financial sector stability; Climate change; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms
Mr. Antonio David
and
Can Sever
We examine electoral cycles in tax reforms using monthly data over the period of 1990-2018 for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets. We show that governments tend to avoid announcing tax reforms during the months running up to elections. In addition, they become more likely to announce those reforms in the first few months following elections, indicating that “political capital” plays a role in the timing of reforms. These patterns are broad-based regarding the changes in tax base and rate, and for various types of taxes. We also find that the pre-election decrease in the likelihood of tax reform announcements is stronger in emerging markets, and weaker in the countries with relatively better institutional quality. Finally, our results indicate that neither fiscal rules nor IMF programs appear to have differential effects on electoral cycles in tax reforms.
Keywords:
Tax Reforms; Electoral Cycles; Political Economy; Institutional Quality; reform announcement; elections in the sample; announcements decrease; election dummy; election variable; Fiscal rules; Probit models; Personal income tax; Social security contributions; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers
Sascha Buetzer
This paper argues that in reserve currency issuing economies at the effective lower bound, outright transfers from the central bank to households are both more equitable and more effective in achieving monetary policy objectives than asset purchases or negative interest rates. It shows that concerns pertaining to central banks’ policy solvency and equity position can be addressed through a careful assessment of a central bank's loss absorbing capacity and, if need be, tiered reserve remuneration policies. It also spells out key differences to a debt or money financed fiscal stimulus, which are particularly pronounced in a currency union without a central fiscal capacity. The paper concludes by discussing broader institutional, political, and legal considerations.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Outright Transfers; Central Bank Balance Sheet; Central Bank Solvency; Central Bank Equity; Helicopter Money; Inequality; policy solvency; equity position; revaluation account; Unconventional monetary policies; Financial statements; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Rise of Digital Money: A Strategic Plan to Continue Delivering On The IMF’s Mandate
International Monetary Fund
Rapid technological innovation is ushering in a new era of public and private digital money, bringing about major benefits in terms of efficiency and inclusion. To reap the full benefits and manage risks, authorities around the world will have to address new policy challenges. These are widespread, complex, rapidly evolving, and have profound implications. This paper identifies the main challenges currently arising regarding consumer protection and financial integrity, domestic financial and economic stability, as well as the stability and efficiency of the international monetary system. The paper argues that many of these challenges intersect the Fund’s mandate. The Fund must therefore monitor, and advise on, this rapid and complex transition for all members. The paper ends with a broad vision of how to deliver on this mandate and serve its members, including by enhancing resources, and collaborating closely with other institutions. This is the first of two papers, the second of which lays out a more detailed operational strategy.
Keywords:
IMF's mandate; transparency policy; paper at-a-Glance; issued digital money provider; digital money adoption; Digital currencies; Financial sector stability; Central Bank digital currencies; Virtual currencies; Currencies; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Rise of Public and Private Digital Money: A Strategy to Continue Delivering on The IMF’s Mandate
International Monetary Fund
Following the companion paper on the new policy challenges related to the adoption of digital forms of money, this paper presents an operational strategy for the IMF to continue delivering on its mandate of ensuring domestic and international financial and economic stability. The paper begins by summarizing the forces driving the adoption of digital forms of money, and the new policy questions that emerge. It then focusses on how the IMF’s core activities and output will need to evolve, including surveillance, capacity development, and analytical foundations. It ends by discusses how the IMF intends to partner with other organization, and to grow and structure internal resources to fulfill this vision.
Keywords:
digital money adoption; IMF surveillance; core activity; IMF's mandate; Policy question; Digital currencies; Financial sector stability; Financial Sector Assessment Program; International monetary system; Central Bank digital currencies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Recognizing Reality—Unification of Official and Parallel Market Exchange Rates
Mr. Simon T Gray
Some central banks have maintained overvalued official exchange rates, while unable to ensure that supply of foreign exchange meets legitimate demand for current account transactions at that price. A parallel exchange rate market develops, in such circumstances; and when the spread between the official and parallel rates is both substantial and sustained, price levels in the economy typically reflect the parallel market exchange rate. “Recognizing reality” by allowing economic agents to use a market clearing rate benefits economic activity without necessarily leading to more inflation. But a unified, market-clearing exchange rate will not stabilize without a supportive fiscal and monetary context. A number of country case studies are included; my thanks to Jie Ren for pulling together all the data for the country case studies, and the production of the charts.
Keywords:
exchange rate unification; parallel markets; WP; market-clearing rate; market rate; exchange rate weakness; managed float; market-clearing exchange rate