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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 421 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects x
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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Bhutan: Development of an Interest Rate Corridor Framework
Oleg Churiy
and
Bernard J Laurens
At the request of the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA), an IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) visited Thimphu during August 20-29, 2024. The mission’s objectives were to assist the authorities in setting up interest rate corridor (IRC) and operationalizing the related instruments, operations, liquidity forecasting, and collateral frameworks.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; International organization; IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center; capacity development recipient; staff capacity; high-level summary; money market development; Interest rate corridor; Open market operations; Liquidity forecasting; Liquidity management
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Bhutan: Technical Assistance Report-Development of an Interest Rate Corridor Framework
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In August 2024, at the request of the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA), the IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) conducted a Technical Assistance (TA) mission in Thimphu. The mission aimed to assist the RMA in establishing an interest rate corridor (IRC) and operationalizing related instruments, liquidity forecasting, and collateral frameworks. The mission identified that the RMA lacks necessary monetary policy instruments to effectively address changing systemic liquidity conditions and financial stability challenges. It emphasized the need to move away from reliance on administrative controls, as the absence of appropriate price incentives reinforces the preference for foreign exchange among Bhutanese residents, increasing pressures on the peg. To tackle these issues, the mission proposed a phased approach to introduce the IRC. Initially, relevant external and internal documents should be finalized, followed by mock operations. The first phase involves introducing a one-week main Open Market Operation (OMO), conducted weekly at the policy rate with full allotment. Automatic access to the IRC's standing facilities should be ensured. Later, fixed-quantity, variable-rate OMOs should be utilized, relying on liquidity forecasting to calibrate operations. Additionally, the mission recommended reinstating sweeping arrangements for government accounts and enhancing coordination with the Treasury to improve liquidity forecasting. These measures aim to strengthen the RMA's operational framework and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; International organization; Bhutan.; RMA money market contact group; IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center; IMF's Monetary; expert of the IMF Monetary; interest rate corridor framework; Liquidity management; Interest rate corridor; Liquidity; Commercial banks; Central bank policy rate
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Real Estate Sector and Financial Stability Risks in Chile: Chile
Tatsushi Okuda
The Chilean real estate sector has recently undergone adjustments which have increased the risks for the financial sector, but the system remains overall resilient. In the baseline, the real estate market is expected to modestly recover, and several factors mitigate credit risk. The buffers in the financial sector currently appear broadly adequate to absorb stresses from high long-term interest rates and the tail risk of a real estate crisis. Nevertheless, supervisors should monitor these risks closely, keep advancing in closing data gaps, and continue to extend stress test models to comprehensively capture real estate-specific risk factors.
Keywords:
Financial sector stability; Real estate sector; Stress testing; I. housing wealth effect; risk factors; real estate crisis; real estate; Mortgages; Loans; Long term interest rates; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Azerbaijan: Technical Assistance Report-Modernizing Central Bank Communication
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report presents an analysis of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan's (CBA) communication framework and offers recommendations for enhancement. The technical assistance mission, led by the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department, aimed to modernize the CBA's communication strategies to align with international best practices. The findings indicate that while the CBA has made significant progress in external communications, there are areas for improvement, particularly in formalizing communication processes and enhancing message clarity. Recommendations include strengthening the role of the Communications Division, adopting a proactive communication policy, and improving the monetary policy communication cycle. These changes are expected to elevate the CBA's communication to a policy tool that supports its objectives of price and financial stability.
Keywords:
Central Bank; Communication; Monetary Policy; Transparency; Inflation Targeting; Stakeholders; Capacity Building; Policy Framework; Institutional Strategy; Communication Division; Azerbaijan.; CBA monetary policy press release; C. communications management; monetary policy department; B. Communication cycle; communication framework; CBA flagship policy publication; Monetary policy communication; Social networks; Financial sector stability; Central bank policy rate; Monetary policy frameworks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Portfolio Inertia and Expected Excess Returns in Currency Markets: Evidence from Advanced Economies
Bas B. Bakker
The economic literature has long attributed non-zero expected excess returns in currency markets to time-varying risk premiums demanded by risk-averse investors. This paper, building on Bacchetta and van Wincoop's (2021) portfolio balance framework, shows that such returns can also arise when investors are risk-neutral but face portfolio adjustment costs. Models with adjustment costs but no risk aversion predict a negative correlation between exchange rate levels and expected excess returns, while models with risk aversion but no adjustment costs predict a positive one. Using data from nine inflation targeting economies with floating exchange rates (2000–2024), we find strong empirical support for the adjustment costs framework. The negative correlation persists even during periods of low market stress, further evidence that portfolio adjustment costs, not risk premium shocks, drive the link between exchange rates and excess returns. Our model predicts that one-year expected excess returns should have predictive power for multi-year returns, with longer-term expected returns as increasing multiples of short-term expectations, and the predictive power strengthening with the horizon. We confirm these findings empirically. We also examine scenarios combining risk aversion and adjustment costs, showing that sufficiently high adjustment costs are essential to generate the observed negative relationship.These findings provide a simpler, testable alternative to literature relying on assumptions about unobservable factors like time-varying risk premiums, intermediary constraints, or noise trader activity.
Keywords:
Exchange Rates; Portfolio Balance; Uncovered Interest Parity; Portfolio Adjustment Costs; Risk Premium; Currency Markets; Expected Returns; excess return; portfolio adjustment; adjustment cost; portfolio balance framework; portfolio Inertia; Exchange rate adjustments; Return on investment; Currencies; Interest rate parity; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
ECB Monetary Policy Passthrough to Bank Interest Rates During Tightening: Republic of Kosovo
Ezgi O. Ozturk
This paper analyzes the transmission of ECB policy rate changes to bank interest rates in Kosovo during the 2022-23 tightening cycle. While both lending and deposit rates increased, the passthrough was more limited compared to the euro area and regional peers. Three key factors explain this limited transmission: Kosovo's stage of financial development, high banking sector liquidity, and significant bank concentration.
Keywords:
Monetary policy transmission; interest rates; banking sector; euroization; financial development; Kosovo; ECB monetary policy Passthrough; ECB policy rate change; ECB policy rate Passthrough; ECB Policy rate pass-through; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Financial sector development; Inflation; Financial inclusion; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under the Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of India
Jesper Lindé
,
Patrick Schneider
,
Nujin Suphaphiphat
, and
Hou Wang
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in mitigating economic and financial shocks in India by applying the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF). It highlights how FXI can be a complementary tool in mitigating the tradeoff between output and inflation, specifically under large economic shocks amid temporarily shallow FX markets. The paper indicates that while FXI can soften adverse impacts on domestic demand and output during severe risk-off shocks, its benefits under normal conditions with liquid FX markets are limited.
Keywords:
Integrated policy framework; foreign exchange intervention; risk-off shocks; EM FX intervention proxy; RBI FX intervention; FX Market development; OTC FX turnover; rate Policy; Currency markets; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2024
Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2024
Asia and Pacific: Resilient Growth but Higher Risks
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Short-term prospects for Asia and the Pacific have improved slightly compared to the IMF’s April forecasts, even though growth is still expected to moderate in 2024 and 2025. The regional growth projection for 2024 has been marked up to 4.6 percent from 4.5 percent in April, largely reflecting the over-performance in the first half of the year, and the region is forecast to contribute roughly 60 percent to global growth in 2024. In 2025, more accommodative monetary conditions are expected to support activity, resulting in a slight upward growth revision to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent in April. Inflation has retreated in much of the region. At the same time, risks have increased, reflecting rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the strength of global demand, and potential for financial volatility. Demographic change will act increasingly as a brake on activity, though structural shifts into high-productivity sectors such as tradable services hold promise to sustain robust growth.

Keywords:
Asia and the Pacific; growth; inflation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; China; AE Asia; emerging economy; headline inflation; foreign direct investment; monetary management; Asia EMDEs; EM Asia; Pacific island economy; ASEAN region; export opportunity; exports to the world; monetary policy response; Exports; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Foreign direct investment; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Initial Considerations For The Review Of Charges And The Surcharge Policy
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
Keywords:
General Resources Account; Charges; Margin for the basic rate of charge; Surcharges; Commitment Fees; Precautionary Balances; Income; multilayered framework; fund arrangement; surcharge rate; intermediation cost; fund's liquidity; borrowing cost; Credit; SDR interest rate; Balance of payments need; Credit risk; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review Of Charges And The Surcharge Policy— A Possible Reform Package
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
Keywords:
General Resources Account; Charges; Margin for the basic rate of charge; Surcharges; Commitment Fees; Precautionary Balances; Income; reform package; transparency policy; EMBIG market spread; IMF's transparency policy; Fund credit; desk survey; Credit; SDR interest rate; Credit risk; Return on investment; Global