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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 34 items for :

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Cover FinTech Notes
Central Bank Digital Currency's Role in Promoting Financial Inclusion
Ashley Lannquist
and
Brandon Tan
Financial inclusion is a key policy objective that central banks, especially those in emerging and low-income countries, are considering for retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). If properly designed to address the barriers to financial inclusion, CBDCs have the opportunity to gain acceptance by the financially excluded for digital payments. CBDC can then serve as an entry point to the broader formal financial system. CBDC has special aspects that may benefit financial inclusion, such as being a risk-free and widely acceptable form of digital money, availability for offline payments, and potentially lower costs and greater accessibility. However, CBDC is not a panacea to financial inclusion, and additional experience is needed to fully understand its potential impact.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currency; financial inclusion; digital inclusion; digital payments; central bank digital currency's role; IMF Fintech Note 2023/011; IMF Library; publication order; publications service; Central Bank digital currencies; Digital financial services; Payment systems; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover FinTech Notes
Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies for Monetary Policy Transmission
Ms. Mitali Das
,
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
,
Fumitaka Nakamura
,
Ms. Julia Otten
,
Gabriel Soderberg
,
Mr. Juan Sole
, and
Brandon Tan
This fintech note presents an analysis of the implications of central bank digital currency (CBDC) for monetary policy. In our framework, the implications of CBDC issuance on monetary policy are intermediated by its impact on key parts of the macroeconomic environment. The note also makes a distinction between “level effects”—whereby the introduction of CBDCs could tighten or loosen financial conditions as a shock—and “transmission effects,” whereby CBDCs change the impact of a given monetary policy shock on output, employment, and inflation. In general, the effects of CBDCs on monetary policy transmission are expected to be relatively small in normal times; however, these effects can be more significant in an environment with low interest rates or financial market stress.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currencies; monetary policy; monetary policy transmission; monetary policy transition; IMF Fintech Note 2023/010; FINTECH note; CBDC issuance; Central bank policy rate; Financial inclusion; Bank deposits; Open market operations; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations
Mr. Luis Brandao Marques
,
Marco Casiraghi
,
Mr. R. G Gelos
,
Olamide Harrison
, and
Gunes Kamber
This paper examines whether high government debt levels pose a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing the impact of government debt surprises on inflation expectations in advanced- and emerging market economies. It finds that debt surprises raise long-term inflation expectations in emerging market economies in a persistent way, but not in advanced economies. The effects are stronger when initial debt levels are already high, when inflation levels are initially high, and when debt dollarization is significant. By contrast, debt surprises have only modest effects in economies with inflation targeting regimes. Increased debt levels may complicate the fight against inflation in emerging market economies with high and dollarized debt levels, and weaker monetary policy frameworks.
Keywords:
Inflation expectations; monetary policy; fiscal dominance; debt; inflation expectation; debt surprise; government debt shock; share classification; debt dollarization; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Foreign currency debt; Fiscal stance; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measurement and Use of Cash by Half the World’s Population
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
The use of cash for payments is not well measured. We view the value of cash withdrawn from ATMs, or as a share of all payments, as a more accurate and timely measure of cash use compared to the standard measure of currency in circulation, or as a ratio to GDP. These two measures are compared for 14 advanced and emerging market economies. When aggregated, the trend in cash use for payments is currently falling for half the world’s population. Such a measure can help inform policy decisions regarding CBDC and regulatory decisions concerning access to and use of cash.
Keywords:
Cash; payments; access to cash; central bank digital currency; cash use; ATM cash; aggregate Currency value; value of cash; use of cash; Currencies; Monetary base; Purchasing power parity; Stocks; Payment systems
Cover IMF Working Papers
Instant Payments: Regulatory Innovation and Payment Substitution Across Countries
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
Instant, or fast, payments are credit transfers completed and settled within seconds or minutes. They have low costs, reduce payment risk, and have significantly replaced the use of cash, cards, or check and direct debit payments. We note the role played by regulators in promoting instant payments and identify instances of significant payment instrument substitution across 12 advanced and emerging market economies. This substitution reflects the realized demand for attributes offered by instant payments. As these attributes are quite similar to those for CBDC, the demand for retail CBDC (if issued) may be less compelling.
Keywords:
Instant payments; payment substitution; regulatory innovation; instant payment; payment risk; direct debit payment; payment share; Payment systems; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Multi-Currency Exchange and Contracting Platform
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Federico Grinberg
,
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
,
Robert M. Townsend
, and
Nicolas Zhang
Cross-border payments can be slow, expensive, and risky. They are intermediated by counterparties in different jurisdictions which rely on costly trusted relationships to offset the lack of a common settlement asset as well as common rules and governance. In this paper, we present a vision for a multilateral platform that could improve cross-border payments, as well as related foreign exchange transactions, risk sharing, and more generally, financial contracting. The approach is to leverage technological innovations for public policy objectives. A common ledger, smart contracts, and encryption offer significant gains to market efficiency, completeness, and access, as well as to transparency, transaction and compliance costs, and safety. This paper is a first step aiming to stimulate further work in this space.
Keywords:
Cross-border payments; multilateral platforms; digital money; CBDC; programmability; encryption; exchange-market illiquidity; risk sharing; market design; hedging risk; cross-border payment; Smart contracts; Currencies; Currency markets; Financial statements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Falling Use of Cash and Demand for Retail Central Bank Digital Currency
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
Cash use in most countries is falling slowly. On the margin, younger adults favor cash substitutes over cash. For older adults it is the reverse. Revealed preference tied to a changing population age structure seems to be the main influence on the demand for cash and why it is falling. Cash use may continue to fall, and card use (the main cash substitute) may fall by more, if CBDC is issued. The extent of this reduction depends on the demand for retail CBDC and the incentives (primarily transaction fees) that can play a determining role in CBDC adoption and use.
Keywords:
Cash; card payments; payment substitution; central bank digital currency; cash share; cash use; cash substitute; use of cash; card substitution; Currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Digital currencies; Household consumption; Payment systems; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Privacy Provision, Payment Latency, and Role of Collateral
Mr. Charles M. Kahn
,
Caitlin Long
, and
Mr. Manmohan Singh
The new boundary between publicly and privately provided payments systems and the role of collateral may be changing. Recent technological developments have made it feasible for markets and policymakers to contemplate abolishing physical cash, and replacing it with electronic alternatives like digital tokens. This paper focuses on two concepts: (i) privacy provision that results in increased awareness of and concern with problems of privacy in payments systems; and (ii) payment latency, and how the new fintech world is likely to result in reduced counterparty and interest rate risk for corporate treasurer. The paper ties these issues from the lens of collateral, especially the analogy of collateral reuse and digital tokens.
Keywords:
WP; payments medium; payment latency; payment solution; payment-system user; payment settle; privacy provision; collateral reuse; digitial tokens; payment system; payments provider; latency cost; Payment systems; Currencies; Bank deposits; Collateral; Central Bank digital currencies; Global; payment arrangement; status quo payment system
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cash Use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
The level and trend in cash use in a country will influence the demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC). While access to digital currency will be more convenient than traveling to an ATM, it only makes CBDC like a bank debit card—not better. Demand for digital currency will thus be weak in countries where cash use is already very low, due to a preference for cash substitutes (cards, electronic money, mobile phone payments). Where cash use is very high, demand should be stronger, due to a lack of cash substitutes. As the demand for CBDC is tied to the current level of cash use, we estimate the level and trend in cash use for 11 countries using four different measures. A tentative forecast of cash use is also made. After showing that declining cash use is largely associated with demographic change, we tie the level of cash use to the likely demand for CBDC in different countries. In this process, we suggest that one measure of cash use is more useful than the others. If cash is important for monetary policy, payment instrument competition, or as an alternative payment instrument in the event of operational problems with privately supplied payment methods, the introduction of CBDC may best be introduced before cash substitutes become so ubiquitous that the viability of CBDC could be in doubt.
Keywords:
WP; cash use; payment instrument; cash share forecast; cash substitute; cash payment; cash forecasting; central bank digital currency; use data; Currencies; Payment systems; Central Bank digital currencies; Bank deposits; Digital currencies; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Models of Currency Demand
Mariam El Hamiani Khatat
Two types of currency in circulation models are identified: (1) a first generation derived from the theory of money demand and (2) a second generation aimed at producing daily forecasts of currency in circulation. In this paper, we transform the currency demand function into a VAR to capture the dynamic link between interest rates and the demand for cash. We also apply ARIMA modeling to forecast the daily currency in circulation for Brazil, Kazakhstan, Morocco, New Zealand, and Sudan. Our empirical work shows that some of the conclusions in the economic literature on the impact of interest rates on the demand for currency do not necessarily hold, and that central banks would benefit from running both generations of currency in circulation models. The fundamental longer-run determinants of the demand for cash are distinct from its short-run determinants.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; monetary policy; banking system; Currency in circulation; ARIMA models; seasonality; liquidity forecasting; ARIMA model; currency demand; Arima currency in circulation model; FX operation; net foreign assets; a number of central banks; CIC model; policy rate change; bank reserves; Moroccan dirham; monetary policy shock; currency in circulation model; Currencies; Central bank policy rate; Liquidity; Commercial banks; Maghreb