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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2023
Securing Low Inflation and Nurturing Potential Growth
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

After a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic and continued resilience in early 2023, economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is softening as the effect of tighter policies to combat inflation is taking hold and the external environment is weakening. The early and swift monetary tightening across the region since 2021, together with the withdrawal of most of the pandemic fiscal stimulus and the reversal of external price pressures, have helped put headline inflation on a downward trajectory. Core inflation has also started to ease, as price pressures are becoming less generalized, although it remains elevated amid strong labor markets and positive output gaps in some countries. Banking systems have weathered the rise in interest rates well and are generally healthy, though credit to the private sector is decelerating amid tighter supply conditions and weaker demand.

Keywords:
inflation; regional outlook; fragmentation; global trade; Latin America and the Caribbean; banking systems; volatility; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; cash equivalent; contractionary monetary policy; end-of-period inflation; price pressure; inflation gap; inflation projection; headline inflation in Brazil; inflation shock; return on equity; inflation from the inflation target; Fiscal stance; Central bank policy rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Purchasing power parity; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Analytical Notes
Exploring Multilateral Platforms for Cross-Border Payments
Bank of International Settlements
,
International Monetary Fund
, and
World Bank
This report provides an assessment of whether and how multilateral platforms could bring meaningful improvements to the cross-border payments ecosystem. It was written by the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) in collaboration with the BIS Innovation Hub, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.1 The report analyses the potential costs and benefits of these platforms and how they might alleviate some of the cross-border payment frictions. It also evaluates the risks, barriers and challenges to establishing multilateral platforms and explores two paths for their evolution. The analysis is based on a stocktake, conducted by the CPMI, of existing and potential multilateral platforms as well as bilateral discussions with existing platform operators.
Keywords:
multilateral platform; payment message standard; cross-border payment friction; platform operator; payments programme; Payment systems; Currencies; Public sector; Correspondent banking; Global; Southern Africa; West Africa; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
export development; income quintile; export complexity; export determinant; International Monetary Fund Washington, d.c; Exports; Inflation; Food prices; Export performance; Consumer price indexes; Global; Central America; East Asia; North America; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jamaica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
D. export determinant; IMF's transparency policy; logistics performance indicator; I. complexity determinant; education indicator; Exports; Consumption taxes; East Asia; Central America; Caribbean; North America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
El Salvador: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for El Salvador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The pandemic interrupted ten years of growth, but El Salvador is rebounding quickly. Robust external demand, resilient remittances, and a sound management of the pandemic—with the help of a disbursement under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) (SDR287.2 million or US$389 million) approved in April 2020—are supporting a strong recovery. Persistent fiscal deficits and high debt service are leading to large and increasing gross fiscal financing needs.
Keywords:
Salvadorian authorities; authorities of El Salvador; anti-smuggling plan; government finance statistics manual; El Salvador's authorities; authorities' estimate; Virtual currencies; International reserves; Currencies; Remittances; Central America; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financing for the Post-pandemic Recovery: Developing Domestic Sovereign Debt Markets in Central America
Jean François Clevy
,
Mr. Guilherme Pedras
, and
Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz
The pandemic has urged countries around the globe to mobilize financing to support the recovery. This is even more relevant in Central America, where the policy response to cushion the pandemic’s economic and social impact has accentuated pre-existing debt vulnerabilities. This paper documents the potential for local currency bond markets to diversify and expand financing for the recovery, lowering bond yields, funding volatility, and exposure to global shocks. The paper further identifies priority actions, both national and regional, to support market development.
Keywords:
Bond Markets; Fiscal Deficit; Public Debt; Global Spillovers.; financing condition; pre-existing debt vulnerability; sovereign bond bond yield; market development; LCBM development; Yield curve; Securities markets; Government debt management; Government securities; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fintech and Financial Inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean
Mr. Dmitry Gershenson
,
Frederic Lambert
,
Luis Herrera
,
Grey Ramos
,
Mrs. Marina V Rousset
, and
Mr. Jose L. Torres
Despite some improvement since 2011, Latin America and the Caribbean continue to lag behind other regions in terms of financial inclusion. There is no clear evidence that fintech developments have supported greater financial inclusion in LAC, contrary to what has been observed elsewhere in the world. Case studies by national policy experts suggest that barriers to entry in the financial sector, along with a constraining regulatory environment, may have hindered a faster adoption of fintech. However, fintech development seems to have accelerated in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and with the support of recent policy initiatives.
Keywords:
fintech development; policy initiative; financial product; cash transfer program; ACH Colombia; electronic cash; per capita income; credit card payment; Financial inclusion; Fintech; Financial sector; Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; Central America; South America; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fintech Potential for Remittance Transfers: A Central America Perspective
Julia Bersch
,
Jean François Clevy
,
Naseem Muhammad
,
Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz
, and
Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov
This paper analyzes the potential for fintech to facilitate cheaper and more efficient remittances, and to enhance financial inclusion in Central America. Digital remittances remain nascent in the region, primarily reflecting behavioral inertia, small cost advantages of digital over traditional channels, and inadequate financial literacy. Through expanded alliances between traditional and fintech operators, digital remittances can further reduce transaction costs and reach those remote, low-income households in a timely and secure manner. A meaningful expansion of fintech remittances necessitates an enabling regulatory environment for digital financial services, and KYC and AML/CFT requirements proportionate to the value of transfers.
Keywords:
remittances digitalization; Fintech remittance; remittances corridor; C. remittances cost; remittances' fee; Remittances; Mobile banking; Financial inclusion; Fintech; Global; Central America; Caribbean; South Asia; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
India’s Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting
Patrick Blagrave
and
Weicheng Lian
We study the inflation process in India, focusing on the periods before and after the adoption of flexible inflation-forecast targeting (FIT) in India. Our analysis uses several approaches including standard Phillips curve estimation for headline and core inflation, an examination of the sensitivity of medium-term inflation expectations to inflation surprises, and the properties of convergence between headline and core inflation. Results indicate an important role for domestic factors in driving the inflation process, and there is evidence that expectations have become more anchored since 2015. This result could be attributable to FIT adoption, or to persistently low food prices which dominate the post-FIT-adoption period. The policy implications of these structural changes in the inflation process are investigated using a semi-structural model calibrated to the Indian economy.
Keywords:
India; WP; inflation expectation; headline inflation processes; food price inflation; core-inflation process; core-inflation determinant; headline inflation forecast; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Food prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Import prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Benchmark-Driven Investments in Emerging Market Bond Markets: Taking Stock
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Dimitris Drakopoulos
,
Rohit Goel
, and
Mr. Robin Koepke
This paper reviews the role of benchmark-driven investments in EM local bond markets. We provide an overview of how key EM bond benchmark indices are constructed, how they affect the behavior of investment funds, and what are the likely implications for capital flows and policy-making. Several methods are presented suggesting that the amount of assets benchmarked against widely followed EM local-currency bond indices have risen fivefold since the mid-2000s to around $300 billion. Our review suggests that the benefits of index membership may be tempered by portfolio outflow risks for some countries. This is because benchmark-driven investments may increase the importance of external factors at the expense of domestic factors, raising the risks of outflows unrelated to recipient country fundamentals. Some countries may be disproportionately exposed to these risks, reflecting the way the indices are constructed.
Keywords:
WP; investment; investor; JPMorgan; Capital flows; portfolio choice; push and pull; benchmarks; J.P. Morgan emerging market bond Index; benchmark index; benchmark-driven investment; J.P. Morgan government bond index-emerging markets; investor base; surprise Index; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Securities markets; Bonds; Mutual funds; Global