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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Profitability in Europe: Not Here to Stay
Ruo Chen
,
Vincenzo Guzzo
,
Fazurin Jamaludin
,
Adil Mohommad
,
Ritong Qu
, and
Yueshu Zhao
Slower passthrough of policy interest rate hikes to deposit rates relative to their loan rates has led to sharply wider bank net interest margins. Combined with resilient asset quality, wider net interest margins supported record profits for European banks in 2023. Drawing on historical data from the balance sheets and income statements of over 2,500 European banks, this paper shows that abnormally high profits are expected to fade soon as interest income will decline, once policy rates start being lowered, while higher impairment costs historically have weighed on profits with a lag. Moreover, a number of structural factors that have eroded the performance of European banks in the past two decades have largely remained unaddressed and will continue being a drag on profits and capital. Therefore, policymakers should encourage banks to preserve capital buffers and build resilience to future shocks, while exercising caution when considering taxes on profits or other measures that could divert potential sources of capital from banks.
Keywords:
European banks; bank profits; interest rate margins; asset quality; bank capital; bank taxation.; bank profit; interest rate margin; bank taxation; impairment cost; Bank soundness; Financial statements; Income; Yield curve; Central bank policy rate; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belgium: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note provides an update on the systemic risk analysis and stress testing in Belgium. The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) banks solvency stress tests show that the Belgian significant institutions are resilient under the adverse scenario while some heterogeneity exists. The FSAP team also conducted a sensitivity analysis where non-term deposits are converted to term deposits owing to the steep surge in interest rates. The results from the liquidity stress tests show that liquidity levels are comfortable for the system but need to be reinforced for some banks. An additional study examining the interplay between solvency and liquidity risks under stress shows that banks are resilient to shocks that will result in forced liquidation of assets. The interconnectedness analyses show that Belgian domestic and cross-border interconnections are relatively modest. The domestic interbank market reflects low levels of contagion risks for Belgian banks; however, there are a few banks that exhibit a high degree of systemic importance within the interbank system. Cross-border analysis reveals Belgian banks’ strong exposures to non-financial sectors.
Keywords:
net interest income; risk projection; market interconnectedness Results; H. sensitivity analysis; market interconnectedness flowchart; sensitivity analysis result; regressions output; solvency capital requirement; Stress testing; Insurance companies; Solvency stress testing; Solvency; Mutual funds; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belgium: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on the report on Belgium’s Financial Sector Assessment Program. Economic activity has slowed, core inflation remains high, and the fiscal outlook is challenging. The financial sector has remained resilient despite a series of shocks. Key financial stability risks emanate from the large, concentrated, and interconnected banking sector, private sector indebtedness, and high exposure to real estate. Bank solvency stress tests indicate that the financial sector is resilient under severe macroeconomic shocks. Although there is some heterogeneity across financial institutions, all banks would satisfy the minimum capital criteria. The authorities should enhance the National Bank of Belgium’s powers to set macroprudential policy in line with its financial stability mandate. In the near term, the extension/ setting of capital requirements should be streamlined, without the requirement for government approval. There is scope to strengthen the corporate governance framework and expectations for banks, and boost prudential supervisory staffing, especially given upcoming regulatory developments.
Keywords:
bank solvency stress tests; insurance solvency stress test; NBB coordination; corporate governance framework; cash flow; B. bank Oversight; market share; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Insurance companies; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
E. climate adaptation financing; Mauritania's climate policy commitment; Policy recommendation; climate change readiness; climate change in Mauritania; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Exchange rate flexibility; Climate change; Natural disasters; Exchange rates; Currency markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This selected issue paper discusses the desirable institutional and macro-financial conditions and optimal path toward greater exchange rate flexibility in the Islamic Republic of Mauritania. It also identifies the macro-financial risks that arise and mitigation measures supporting a smooth transition and discusses reforms needed for a successful and smooth shift, including the need for an alternative nominal anchor and modern monetary policy framework, more developed financial markets, and resilient financial sector. Mauritania is a small economy exposed to terms-of-trade shocks. The current account deficit is volatile and sometimes sizeable. International reserves remained adequate until 2021 but are expected to fall around the adequacy threshold due to the negative external shock. A more flexible exchange rate would reduce the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks and preserve international reserves. Countries that are heavily reliant on a single commodity or a group of commodities need more exchange rate flexibility to respond to changes in world commodity prices and to mitigate their spillovers into other sectors.
Keywords:
E. climate adaptation financing; Mauritania's climate policy commitment; Policy recommendation; climate change readiness; climate change in Mauritania; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Exchange rate flexibility; Climate change; Natural disasters; Exchange rates; Currency markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: Financial Sector Assessment Program Technical Note—Macroprudential Policy Framework And Tools
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Germany’s macroprudential policy framework and toolkit are well developed. The FSAP found the institutional arrangements for macroprudential policy to be mostly sound and operating well. Capacity and expertise in risk monitoring is good, thanks to the analytical power and data access of the central bank, and close coordination between the macro- and microprudential arms of the financial supervisory authorities. Germany’s macroprudential toolkit continues to develop. The principal outstanding task is to add powers to set caps on debt-to-income and debt service-to-income ratios on residential real estate loans to the already-established powers over loan-to-value ratios and amortization rates. These additions will place Germany’s toolkit on a par with its peers.
Keywords:
B. household sector vulnerability; MACROPRUDENTIAL policy framework; FSAP's finding; solvency regulation; D. Macroprudential communication; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Macroprudential policy instruments; Countercyclical capital buffers; Global; Europe
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Whatever It Takes: Europe’s Response to COVID-19
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic loss of human life and major damage to the European economy, but thanks to an exceptionally strong policy response, potentially devastating outcomes have been avoided.

Keywords:
lockdowns; pandemic; corporate liquidity; recovery; reopening; economic outlook; forecasting; REO; policy support; infection curve; job retention program; Europe transform; financial market disruption; pandemic economy; solvency risks in Europe; time trend; reopening indices; infection incidence; reinfection risk; infection rate; credit access; containment policy; COVID-19; Liquidity; Solvency; Infrastructure; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Benchmark-Driven Investments in Emerging Market Bond Markets: Taking Stock
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Dimitris Drakopoulos
,
Rohit Goel
, and
Mr. Robin Koepke
This paper reviews the role of benchmark-driven investments in EM local bond markets. We provide an overview of how key EM bond benchmark indices are constructed, how they affect the behavior of investment funds, and what are the likely implications for capital flows and policy-making. Several methods are presented suggesting that the amount of assets benchmarked against widely followed EM local-currency bond indices have risen fivefold since the mid-2000s to around $300 billion. Our review suggests that the benefits of index membership may be tempered by portfolio outflow risks for some countries. This is because benchmark-driven investments may increase the importance of external factors at the expense of domestic factors, raising the risks of outflows unrelated to recipient country fundamentals. Some countries may be disproportionately exposed to these risks, reflecting the way the indices are constructed.
Keywords:
WP; investment; investor; JPMorgan; Capital flows; portfolio choice; push and pull; benchmarks; J.P. Morgan emerging market bond Index; benchmark index; benchmark-driven investment; J.P. Morgan government bond index-emerging markets; investor base; surprise Index; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Securities markets; Bonds; Mutual funds; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Oversight and Macroprudential Policy Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
While Norway’s institutional arrangement for macroprudential policy is uncommon, the authorities have shown strong willingness to act. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is the sole macroprudential decision-maker in Norway, which is rare in international comparison. However, Norges Bank and the Finanstilsynet (FSA) play important advisory roles. In recent years, the authorities have taken substantive and wide-ranging macroprudential policy actions in response to growing systemic vulnerabilities—and these seem to have been effective in slowing down some of the riskier trends. The macroprudential policy toolkit is well stocked and actively used.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CRE sector; CRE market; CRE company; CRE risk; FSA survey; liquid asset; central bank; foreign currency; mortgage loan; financial system; Macroprudential policy; Financial stability assessment; Macroprudential policy instruments; Financial sector stability; Countercyclical capital buffers; Global; Mortgages
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Effectiveness of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures: A Quantitative Analysis for Slovakia
Pavol Jurca
,
Ján Klacso
,
Eugen Tereanu
,
Marco Forletta
, and
Mr. Marco Gross
We develop a semi-structural quantitative framework that combines micro and macroeconomic data to assess the effectiveness of combinations of borrower-based macroprudential measures in Slovakia. We expand on the integrated dynamic household balance sheet model of Gross and Población (2017) by introducing an endogenous loan granting feature, in turn to quantify the potential (ex-ante) impact of macroprudential measures on resilience parameters, compared with a counterfactual no-policy scenario, under adverse macroeconomic conditions. We conclude that (1) borrower-based measures can noticeably improve household and bank resilience to macroeconomic downturns, in particular when multiple measures are applied; (2) those measures tend to complement each other, as the impact of individual instruments is transmitted via different channels; and (3) the resilience benefits are more sizeable if the measures effectively limit the accumulation of risks before an economic downturn occurs, suggesting that an early, preemptive implementation of borrower-based measures is indeed warranted.
Keywords:
WP; borrower; lending; household portfolio; loan; mortgage lending; payment obligation; policy measure; borrower leverage; behavior assumption; policy instrument; growth path; Mortgages; Loans; Personal income; Bank soundness; Financial statements; Global; Borrower-based macroprudential policy; household micro data; macro-financial linkages; mortgage borrower; HFCS data mortgage