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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover FinTech Notes
Tokenization and Financial Market Inefficiencies
Itai Agur
,
German Villegas Bauer
,
Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
,
Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
, and
Brandon Tan
Most financial assets are digital today. Tomorrow, they may be tokenized. Tokenization implies recording and transferring assets on a widely shared and trusted digital ledger that can be programmed. Interest in tokenization is strong and experiments abound, but what are the consequences of this new trend for financial markets? This note introduces a taxonomy and a conceptual framework centered on market inefficiencies to evaluate this question. Some inefficiencies could decline across the asset life cycle. Others would remain, however, and new ones could emerge. Issuing, servicing, and redeeming assets might involve fewer intermediaries and thus become cheaper. The costs of trading assets may also decrease as tokenization lowers some counterparty risks and search frictions and offers flexibility in settlement. Additionally, greater competition among brokers could lower transaction fees. However, tokenization may amplify shocks if it induces institutions to become more interconnected and hold lower liquidity buffers or higher leverage, potentially jeopardizing financial stability. Programs themselves may introduce new risks related to strings of contingent contracts or faulty code. While competition may grow among financial intermediaries, the provision of market infrastructure could become more concentrated due to network effects.
Keywords:
Tokenization; central banks; asset lifecycle; financial markets; financial asset market friction; B. market infrastructure investment externality; financial market inefficiency; IMF Library; Note 2025/001; D. knowledge externality; Bonds; Smart contracts; Securities markets; Liquidity; Blockchain and DLT; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2024: Finance & Development, December 2024
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, December 2024
Keywords:
housing sector; IMF photo; affordability crisis; cotton textile industry; housing supply; Housing prices; Housing; Mortgages; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Africa; Caribbean; Europe; Middle East
Cover 2024年10月《世界经济展望》
2024年10月《世界经济展望》
政策转向，威胁上升
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

最新一期《世界经济展望》报告指出，全球经济增长稳定但乏善可陈，风险偏向下行。伴随通胀下行，货币政策已有所放松。当局需要作出调整，确保财政政策走上可持续道路，并重建财政缓冲。理解货币政策在近期全球通胀下行中的作用，以及影响结构性改革的社会接受度的因素，将是促进未来经济实现稳定、更快增长的关键所在。

Keywords:
全球增长；通货膨胀；经济预测；风险情景；货币政策；结构性改革的社会接受度
Cover Perspectivas de la economía mundial, octubre de 2024
Perspectivas de la economía mundial, octubre de 2024
Giro en las políticas, amenazas en aumento
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En la última edición de Perspectivas de la economía mundial (informe WEO) se prevé un crecimiento estable pero con tasas desalentadoras, y que la balanza de riesgos se inclina a hacia el deterioro. Conforme la política monetaria se relaja en vista de la continuidad del proceso de desinflación, es necesario cambiar la marcha para garantizar que la política fiscal siga una trayectoria sostenible y que se reponga el margen de maniobra fiscal. Para promover un crecimiento estable y más vigoroso en el futuro será esencial comprender la función de la política monetaria en el reciente proceso de desinflación mundial, así como los factores que inciden en la aceptabilidad social de las reformas estructurales.

Keywords:
crecimiento mundial; inflación; proyección económica; escenarios de riesgo; política monetaria; aceptabilidad social de las reformas estructurales
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2024
World Economic Outlook, October 2024
Policy Pivot, Rising Threats
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The latest World Economic Outlook reports stable but underwhelming global growth, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. As monetary policy is eased amid continued disinflation, shifting gears is needed to ensure that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path and to rebuild fiscal buffers. Understanding the role of monetary policy in recent global disinflation, and the factors that influence the social acceptability of structural reforms, will be key to promoting stable and more rapid growth in the future.

Keywords:
global growth; inflation; economic projection; risk scenarios; monetary policy; social acceptability of structural reforms; inflation expectation; commodity market development; advanced economy; debt restructuring process; growth resilience; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Labor markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East
Cover «Перспективы развития мировой экономики», октябрь 2024 года
«Перспективы развития мировой экономики», октябрь 2024 года
Поворот в экономической политике, растущие угрозы
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Как указано в новом докладе «Перспективы развития мировой экономики», мировой экономический рост является стабильным, но не впечатляющим, при этом баланс рисков смещен в сторону ухудшения ситуации. По мере смягчения денежно-кредитной политики в условиях продолжающегося замедления темпов инфляции необходимо переориентировать политику, чтобы обеспечить устойчивость бюджетной политики и восстановление бюджетных резервов. Понимание роли денежно-кредитной политики в условиях отмечаемого в последнее время замедления темпов инфляции и факторов, влияющих на социальную приемлемость структурных реформ, будет иметь ключевое значение для обеспечения стабильного и более быстрого роста в будущем.

Keywords:
рост мировой экономики; инфляция; экономический прогноз; сценарии рисков; денежно-кредитная политика; социальная приемлемость структурных реформ
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Digital Currencies and Financial Stability: Balance Sheet Analysis and Policy Choices
Romain Bouis
,
Gaston Gelos
,
Fumitaka Nakamura
,
Paavo A Miettinen
,
Erlend Nier
, and
Gabriel Soderberg
This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the implications for financial stability of a central bank issuing a digital currency to the public at large. We start with a systematic analysis of balance sheet changes that arise from the new liability for the central bank and the banking system, and examine how they depend on preconditions, central bank choices, and banking system responses. Based on this, we discuss the range of implications for financial stability that may arise in steady state, in the context of adoption, and in crisis times. Threats to financial intermediation in steady state arise mainly in situations where the central bank balance sheet expands, and triggers adjustment mechanisms that lead to more costly or less stable funding of the banking system, while in crisis times run risk may increase. Our analysis of policy choices to control these effects considers macroprudential policy, and an expansion of central bank lending to commercial banks, but finds that a main contribution needs to come from a design of the CBDC that encourages its use as a means of payment rather than a store of value.
Keywords:
Central Bank Digital Currency; Financial Stability; Balance Sheets; Disintermediation; Bank Runs; central bank lending; CBDC issuance scenario; market operation; central bank choice; lending to commercial banks; Central Bank digital currencies; Commercial banks; Financial sector stability; Bank credit; Bank deposits; Global; Eastern Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Dataset of High-Frequency Monetary Policy Shocks
Marijn A. Bolhuis
,
Sonali Das
, and
Bella Yao
This paper presents a new dataset of monetary policy shocks for 21 advanced economies and 8 emerging markets from 2000-2022. We use daily changes in interest rate swap rates around central bank announcements to identify unexpected shocks to the path of monetary policy. The resulting series can be used to examine cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of monetary policy shocks. We establish a new empirical fact on monetary policy spillovers across countries: the monetary policy decisions of small open economy central banks, and not just major central banks, have substantial spillover effects on swap rates and bond yields in other countries.
Keywords:
monetary policy surprises; monetary policy shocks; central banks; central bank information effect; emerging markets; high-frequency method; spillovers; monetary policy spillovers; monetary policy spillover; monetary policy shock; information effect; monetary policy decision; monetary policy surprise; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Central bank policy rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Banks and Climate Change: Key Legal Issues
Mario Tamez
,
Hans Weenink
, and
Akihiro Yoshinaga
Well-designed legal frameworks and institutional arrangments support the legitimacy of central banks’ autonomous decision-making when grounded on sound legal basis and can prevent over-stepping in the remit of other authorities. This paper explores the key legal intersections of climate change and central banks. Climate change could impact price and finanical stability, which are at the core of a central bank’s mandate. While central banks’ legal frameworks can support climate change efforts they also determine the boundaries of the measures they can adopt. Central banks need to assess their mandate and authority under their current legal frameworks when considering measures to contribute to the global response to climate change, while taking actions to fulfill their legal mandates.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Central Bank; Legal Framework; central bank development programs; autonomous decision-making; IMF working paper No. 24/192; central bank's mandate; core objective; Financial sector stability; Climate policy; Central bank mandate; Central bank legislation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Perceptions of Canada’s Investment Climate: A Natural Language Processing-Based Approach
Flora Lutz
,
Yuanchen Yang
, and
Chengyu Huang
Canada’s muted productivity growth during recent years has sparked concerns about the country’s investment climate. In this study, we develop a new natural language processing (NPL) based indicator, mining the richness of Twitter (now X) accounts to measure trends in the public perceptions of Canada’s investment climate. We find that while the Canadian investment climate appears to be generally favorable, there are signs of slippage in some categories in recent periods, such as with respect to governance and infrastructure. This result is confirmed by both survey-based and NLP-based indicators. We also find that our NLP-based indicators would suggest that perceptions of Canada’s investment climate are similar to perceptions of U.S. investment climate, except with respect to governance, where views of U.S. governance are notably more negative. Comparing our novel indicator relative to traditional survey-based indicators, we find that the NLP-based indicators are statistically significant in helping to predict investment flows, similar to survey-based measures. Meanwhile, the new NLP-based indicator offers insights into the nuances of data, allowing us to identify specific grievances. Finally, we construct a similar indicator for the U.S. and compare trends across countries.
Keywords:
Investment Climate; Canada; Machine Learning; Sentiment Analysis; muted productivity growth; investmest climate; investment flow; NLP-based indicator; Climate finance; Competition; Infrastructure; Productivity; Mining sector; Global