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International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Productivity must play a more important role in driving sustained growth as our societies age. But there’s no consensus on how to reverse the broad slowdown in productivity growth seen across almost all countries over the past 20 years. F&D magazine’s September issue invites leading thinkers to examine productivity from multiple angles, including dynamism, innovation, demographics, and sustainability.
Can Sever
This paper documents the current state of gender inequalities in the WAEMU by focusing on outcomes (health, education, labor market and financial inclusion) and opportunities (economic rights). The findings show that despite significant progress toward gender equality over the last three decades, there are still prevalent gender-based disparities, which prevent women from fulfilling their economic potential. Both empirical and model-based estimates suggest that the WAEMU can reap substantial economic gains by mitigating the existing gender gaps in schooling and labor market outcomes. Hence, achieving gender equality remains a macro-critical goal for the region. Going forward, the need for specific policies supportive of gender equality may vary in each member country, but a multifaceted and holistic approach is needed to unleash the related economic potential in the WAEMU as a whole.
Alain Feler
and
Lawrence Norton
This paper discusses recent challenges in BCEAO monetary policy, from a recent spike in inflation, the persistent erosion of external reserves, and strains in the regional financial market. In response to these shocks, the BCEAO operated via both policy rates and liquidity management, including by shifting from fixed to variable rate auctions. The paper finds that the conduct of monetary policy became progressively more constrained by financial stability and external viability challenges, arguing for enhanced monetary-fiscal policy coordination to help the BCEAO meet its reserves objectives.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents 2024 discussions on Common Policies of Member Countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The WAEMU has proved resilient amid significant adverse shocks, maintaining strong growth estimated at 5.1 percent in 2023. Inflation has fallen rapidly from its 2022 peaks and is now back within the 1–3 percent target range. Fiscal policy needs to ensure a credible medium-term commitment to debt sustainability, while keeping deficits consistent with available financing. The financial sector has been resilient so far, but the banking sector’s exposures to governments require a medium-term plan to address the sovereign-bank nexus, while avoiding disruptions in the regional debt market. WAEMU’s prosperity will also depend on maintaining political cohesion, deepening economic integration, and strengthening the institutional framework, and infrastructure. Regional growth prospects would be enhanced by continued efforts to increase common productive capacity in energy, infrastructure, and food resilience, as called for in the WAEMU Commission’s Regional Development Strategy.
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Mahmoud El-Gamal
This study investigates the factors leading to exclusion and their detrimental impacts in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It employs two-levels of analysis: a macro-level estimation of the influence of exclusion and marginalization on violent conflict, and a micro-level investigation identifying the triggers of exclusion sentiments. We construct statistical summaries from multiple measures of exclusion, producing an overall exclusion index as well as social, economic, and political exclusion sub-indices. Our results show the importance of mitigating exclusion and marginalization within SSA nations, and pinpoint the most effective policy levers that governments may use to minimize destabilizing feelings of exclusion.
International Monetary Fund
The global economy has shown resilience: macroeconomic policies are delivering, inflation is steadily declining, and financial markets have stabilized. But the recovery is slow and uneven, medium-term growth prospects are weak, and there is a risk of further divergence across countries. The key policy priorities are to (1) safeguard macroeconomic stability and rebuild buffers while enhancing prosperity through growth-oriented and green reforms and (2) bolster international cooperation to strengthen the global financial safety net and debt architecture and to support ongoing fundamental transitions that transcend borders and require joint action. The IMF—as trusted advisor, provider of financial support, and platform for cooperation—remains committed to bringing countries together to solve global challenges.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This technical note discusses anti-money laundering and combating the financing terrorism (AML-CFT) supervision of the banking sector in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The decision to focus on the AML/CFT supervision of the WAEMU banking sector was based on the remit of the regional authorities; the importance to the regional economy of a well-integrated and well-functioning banking sector; and the results of money laundering and terrorist financing national risk assessments conducted to date in West Africa, which identify banks as relatively high-risk financial institutions. The AML/CFT off-site supervision program feeds into the risk-rating process but is not itself risk-based and communication with supervised entities is insufficient. Feedback to banks as part of off-site supervision should be enhanced, the on-site inspection methodology should be sharpened, and the risk-based approach should be fully implemented. The observations and recommendations in this report are based on discussions with regional and national authorities and the private sector as well as a review of relevant templates.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The paper presents Burkina Faso’s Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). This emergency financing under the Food Shock Window will help Burkina Faso address urgent balance of payment needs related to the global food crisis and mitigate the impact of the food shock on the most vulnerable. The authorities’ crisis response appropriately focuses on providing immediate food assistance to affected households, preventing malnutrition and improving drinking water supply, and protecting livestock and animal husbandry. The plans to prepare progress reports and audits on the implementation of the cash transfer program and all food emergency spending are important. Identification and publication of the beneficial owners of entities awarded public procurement contracts related to measures to address the food crisis would be key. The post-coronavirus disease 2019 economic recovery was disrupted by deteriorating security conditions, political uncertainty, and rising foodstuff prices because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, worsening the ongoing food crisis and weighing on the budget. Economic recovery in 2023 will depend on financing conditions, the security situation, and on efforts to mobilize domestic revenues to ensure priority public expenditure and public debt sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores revamping the West African Economic and Monetary Union’s fiscal framework. The new set of fiscal rules should be improved via various supporting arrangements. Those include an escape clause, and broader mechanisms for assessment, accountability, enforcement, and discipline, as well as possibly additional operational frameworks based on intermediate and complementary targets. The fiscal strategy should also crucially encompass efforts towards increasing domestic revenues. The countries’ debt dynamics were affected not only by the fiscal deficit but also by stock flow adjustments. The level of debt in any given year is a function of the previous year’s debt, fiscal deficit, a nominal growth effect, an exchange rate effect, a guarantees effect, and a residual. Simulations show that bringing stock flow adjustments (SFA) under control is essential to ensure debt stabilization over medium term. The only option to stabilize debt and recover buffers is to stick to the 3 percent fiscal deficit target while addressing the SFA. The simulations indicate that the only scenario consistent with both debt stability and the recovery of some fiscal buffers to cope with future shocks is the baseline scenario, with a deficit target of 3 percent of gross domestic product and elimination of the SFA.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The BCEAO has conducted a comprehensive reform during the past five years. The regulatory and prudential framework were aligned with international standards and the conditions for supervision have been strengthened, although the efforts must be continued (liquidity ratio/net stable funding ratio and tools for monitoring liquidity, transfers of ownership, acquisitions of holdings, guidelines on nonperforming claims, and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism—AML-CFT). The transition to Basel III has made it possible to incorporate additional capital requirements, while the rules applicable to credit institutions were upgraded with the 2017 publication of four circulars on governance, risk management, internal supervision, and compliance.