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Deepali Gautam
,
Ekaterina Gratcheva
,
Fabio M Natalucci
, and
Ananthakrishnan Prasad
Mitigation and decarbonization efforts are falling short of the 1.5°C goal, making adaptation critical. Developing economies are affected the most, despite having contributed the least to the problem. Nearly 98 percent of adaptation finance comes from public actors, with highly fragmented flows from the private sector. As financing needs increase, bringing private sector finance becomes critical and requires reframing adaptation investments from being seen not just as a risk exposure but also as an investment opportunity. This requires addressing real and perceived investment barriers, public-private collaboration and risk sharing, as well as financial incentives and innovation to unlock scalable, inclusive solutions. Adaptation is more complex than mitigation, with challenges in defining, evaluating, pricing, and scaling investments. Progress on adaptation requires policy reforms, incentives, and partnerships between governments, businesses, and communities and public-private risk sharing.
Petr Jakubik
The technical assistance is focused on enhancing the joint financial stability report of the Central Bank of Barbados and the Barbados Financial Services Commission. The mission concluded that the preparation of a detailed FSR production plan and communication strategy is of critical importance and could facilitate improvements and promote the report. The report should encompass all crucial elements of financial stability assessment and needs to be streamlined to follow the central storyline with key messages. The quality of the report could be further enhanced though advancements in the analytical toolkit employed and the utilization of all available data sources.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The technical assistance encompassed a comprehensive review of all pertinent aspects aimed at enhancing the joint financial stability report (FSR) of the Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) and the Barbados Financial Services Commission (FSC). The mission determined that the development of a detailed FSR production plan is critical and has the potential to facilitate improvements and synergies among various experts involved in the report’s production. The preparation of a communication plan for the report is another essential step that needs to be taken by the CBB and FSC. The broader macroeconomic context and a more forward-looking perspective should be reflected in the FSR, which needs to be streamlined to follow the central risk story with key messages that are clear and easy to understand to readers with limited knowledge of the financial system in Barbados. The report should reflect all important elements of financial stability assessment, such as the regulatory framework and the analysis of the real sector. The quality of the FSR could be further enhanced through advancements in the financial stability analytical toolkit. Finally, the mission reviewed and provided recommendations on the use of existing as well as potential new data sources that should be fully utilized for financial stability purposes.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Chapter 1 assesses that risks to global growth are skewed to the downside, similar to the assessment in the April 2023 Global Financial Stability Report. Cracks in the financial system may turn into worrisome fault lines should a soft landing of the global economy hoped for by market participants does not materialize. Chapter 2 homes in on the global banking system, providing a fresh assessment of vulnerabilities in a higher-for-longer environment, using an enhanced global stress test and a set of newly developed market-based indicators. In response to the vulnerabilities that are uncovered, enhancements to supervisory practices and tightening of regulatory standards are proposed. Chapter 3 notes that a broad mix of policies is required to unlock the private capital necessary to cover climate mitigation investment needs in emerging market and developing economies.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the fiscal rules framework in Mauritius with a focus on the calibration of the debt and budget balance ceilings. The paper concludes that a new medium-term debt anchor could be up to 80 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the anchor of 60 percent of GDP repealed during the pandemic. Introducing a short-term operational rule based on the overall fiscal deficit ceiling of around 3 percent of GDP would help reduce debt from 99.2 percent of GDP in FY2020/21 to close to the anchor by FY2026/27. The revised debt anchor would better reflect Mauritius’ debt carrying capacity while supporting growth. However, the current level of debt stands well above the proposed anchor. A transition period could be considered during which the deficit would gradually decline from 7.6 percent of GDP in FY2021/22 to 3 percent of GDP in FY2026/27 and beyond. Debt sustainability risks should continue to be assessed on the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Assessment tools regardless of whether the debt anchor has been met.
Mr. Daniel C Hardy
Market liquidity is of value to both investors and issuers of securities, and is therefore a crucial factor in asset pricing. For the important asset class of Eurobonds, significant feedback from liquidity to pricing is established, and it is shown that bid-ask spreads (a proxy for market liquidity) and yields are closely related to bond characteristics such as issue volume, time to maturity, the inclusion of collective action clauses, and the jurisdiction of issuance. Debt management offices can choose these characteristics in a way that has economically significant and persistent effects on both liquidity and pricing.
Chuan Li
and
Joyce Wong
Many Caribbean financial systems are relatively well developed for their size but benefits are concentrated in a small part of the population. In several large countries, the financial development levels are below what is warranted by that country’s own macroeconomic fundamentals. SMEs, in particular, remain severely credit constrained, and data to inform better analysis remains scarce. Using available data, this paper takes stock of the current state of financial development and inclusion in the Caribbean region and, based on a quantitative general equilibrium model, examines potential trade-offs between growth, inequality, and financial stability—all critical considerations when policies are designed. A case study for Jamaica is examined in detail.

Abstract

This book provides a diagnosis of the central economic and financial challenges facing Caribbean policymakers and offers broad policy recommendations for promoting a sustained and inclusive increase in economic well-being. The analysis highlights the need for Caribbean economies to make a concerted effort to break the feedback loops between weak macroeconomic fundamentals, notably pertaining to fiscal positions and financial sector strains, and structural impediments, such as high electricity costs, limited financial deepening, violent crime, and brain drain, which have depressed private investment and growth. A recurring theme in the book is the need for greater regional coordination in finding solutions to address the Caribbean’s shared and intertwined macroeconomic and structural challenges. The analysis suggests that strengthening regional and global market integration of Caribbean economies would provide an impetus to sustained growth in incomes and jobs. Greater regional and global economic integration would also facilitate structural transformation and a shift toward new economic activities, resulting in more diversified and less vulnerable economies. A central challenge for the Caribbean is thus to come together as a region, overcome the limitations posed by size, and garner the benefits of globalization. Efforts should build on existing regional arrangements; accelerating progress in implementing these agreements would stimulate trade. Policymakers could also promote deeper integration with Latin America and the rest of the world by pursuing new trade agreements, leveraging current agreements more effectively, or deepening them to include areas beyond traditional trade issues, and developing port and transport infrastructure.

Ms. Sumiko Ogawa
,
Mr. Joonkyu Park
,
Ms. Diva Singh
, and
Ms. Nita Thacker
Financial sector linkages have increased continuously in the Caribbean with cross border capital flows and financial conglomerates dominating the financial system. While the greater interconnectedness can heighten systemic risks and likelihood of contagion, it can have positive impacts provided the regional authorities take steps to prevent the systemic risk. In this context, financial sector reform measures aimed at bolstering and harmonizing prudential regulations in line with international best practices, the strengthening and enhancement of financial sector supervision to include cross border linkages through consolidated supervision, increased cooperation across supervisors in the region, and the establishment of deposit insurance and crisis resolution frameworks will be critical to maintain financial sector stability and minimize the repercussions of any negative shocks.