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Marie S Kim
,
Lilia Razlog
,
Juan Carlos Vilanova
, and
Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9–20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the authorities on the use of the Medium-term Debt Management Strategy Analytical tool (MTDS AT) and ABP AT. The mission presented its main findings and recommendations to the authorities and left a draft report at the end of the mission.
Divya Kirti
and
Akshat V. Singh
We study the role of life insurers in the transmission of US monetary policy. Insurers have uniquely long-term liabilities. We posit that they face a trade-off between matching liability duration exposure by investing in long-term government debt and earning higher yields by shifting to risky—but shorter-term—private debt. We show that, due to this tradeoff, long-term risk free rates play a critical role in shaping insurers' demand for risky private debt. Contractionary monetary policy shocks that raise long-term risk-free rates reduce insurers' demand for private debt, raising risk premia. We use granular, high frequency data and regulatory changes to trace how insurers' investment behavior transmits monetary policy shocks to risk premia.
Benjamin Mosk
,
Felix Suntheim
,
Yuhua Cai
, and
Anna-Theresa Helmke
This note explores the connection between the varied investor profiles of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and open-ended mutual funds (OEMFs) and the return volatility of the securities they hold. Based on the security-level data of US ETF and OEMF holdings, the analysis suggests that, on aggregate, a higher ETF ownership share may be associated with lower bond return volatility. However, there is a stark divergence between the behavior of institutional and retail ETF investors and their impact on the underlying market. When a larger share of a bond is owned by institutional investors through ETFs, its volatility tends to be higher. Conversely, retail investors tend to offset this impact of institutional investors. This disparity is not evident for OEMFs.
Hua Chai
and
Hyeryoun Kim
The global trade landscape is being reshaped by geoeconomic fragmentation and the rise of industrial policies. This paper studies the impact of these trends on the export-oriented Korean economy. It documents both positive and negative effects of U.S.-China trade tensions, technology and supply chain restrictions, and industrial policies of major economies on Korea's trade and FDI, particularly that of its strategic sectors. To navigate the changing global trade landscape, Korea needs to focus on promoting innovation to maintain competitiveness, diversifying export destinations and supply chains, and expanding exports of services.
Shujaat Khan
,
Bo Li
, and
Yunhui Zhao
We highlight the strong connection between developing fully-funded, individually-owned, collectively-managed, mandatory/incentivized (FICMI) pension schemes and the development of domestic stock markets. We do so by building a stylized model and complementing the analysis with cross-country empirical analysis and case studies. We also highlight the challenges of individual impatience, network externalities, and coordination failure in long-term equity investments, which are crucial for stock market development and technological innovation. We find that FICMI pension schemes—when sufficiently wide in coverage and large in size—can serve as coordination devices to support long-term equity investments. Such investments will not only promote domestic stock market development and make it easier for firms to raise long-term equity capital, therefore supporting long-term economic growth, but also enhance financial inclusion and enable more households to benefit from the overall economic development, therefore contributing to inclusive growth. Moreover, we find that the introduction of FICMI pension schemes can impact household savings in two ways: first, FICMI pension can increase household savings through “forced/incentivized” savings channel, where households save too little without FICMI pension (such as in many EMDEs); and second, FICMI pension can decrease household savings and increase household consumption by reducing non-pension savings and decreasing precautionary savings, where households save too much without FICMI pension (such as in China). In both cases, FICMI pension schemes can help move the economy closer to the optimal level of household savings, and may also help improve the structure of such savings. Finally, we discuss the enabling conditions (such as a strong political commitment to the reform and a well-designed fiscal strategy for financing the transition) and policy design for FICMI pension schemes.
Serhan Cevik
The rise of financial technologies—fintech—could have transformative effects on the financial landscape, expanding the reach of services beyond the confines of geography and creating new competitive sources of finance for households and firms. But what makes fintech grow? Why do some countries have more financial innovation than others? In this paper, I use a comprehensive dataset to investigate the emergence and spread of fintech in a diverse panel of 98 countries over the period 2012–2020. This empirical analysis helps ascertain economic, demographic, technological and institutional factors that enable the development of fintech. The magnitude and statistical significance of these factors vary according to the type of fintech instrument and the level of economic development (advanced economies vs. developing countries). Finally, these findings reveal that policies and structural reforms can help promote financial innovation and cultivate fintech ventures—particularly by strengthening technological and institutional infrastructures and reducing cybersecurity threats.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
IMF conducted a mission at the request of the Central Bank of Belize provided technical assistance focusing on developing a framework for the supervision of electronic money issuers in Belize. The mission reviewed existing approaches to supervising firms conducting regulated financial activities, as well as the regulatory framework and licensing practices for e-money issuers only to the extent that they influence and impact effective supervision. The mission also met with other key stakeholders from the public and private sector setting out nine key recommendations covering risk-based supervision, data collection, reconciliations, transparency, fund safeguarding, permitted investments, agents, inspection reports, and domestic collaboration.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report provides an overview of the technical assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Banco de la República to support the authorities in reviewing the regulatory framework and formulating development strategies for the foreign exchange market.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Bank of Namibia (BON) explored the potential of Retail Central Bank Digital Currency (rCBDC). The key drivers included promoting financial inclusion, modernizing financial system modernization, as well as improving cross-border payments. The technical assistance (TA) mission aimed to provide the groundwork for a feasibility study of rCBDC and to draft a rCBDC exploration roadmap for the BON. The mission analyzed Namibia’s payment systems and financial inclusion and assessed the potential value propositions and drawbacks of rCBDC. Additionally, the mission evaluated the implications of rCBDC for monetary policy and financial stability, while assessing the BoN’s foundational requirements. Finally, the mission helped draft a rCBDC exploration roadmap, intending to foster a cohesive and coordinated approach for the BoN and external stakeholders. The mission’s findings will inform the development of the BoN's rCBDC position paper.