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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Nicaraguan economy is experiencing robust growth. Real GDP growth accelerated to around 4½ percent in 2023 and the first half of 2024, from about 3.8 percent in 2022, on the back of robust domestic demand, while inflation is moderating. Prudent macroeconomic policies and record-high remittances sustained this performance, a decrease in the estimated poverty ratio, and also led to twin surpluses, a steady decline in debt, and the accumulation of strong buffers. Gross international reserves reached US$5.7 billion, or 7.2 months of imports, by end-October 2024. The economy remains open and resilient, after confronting multiple large shocks, and on a backdrop of transfers of private property to the state, international sanctions, and reorientation of official financing. Going forward, domestic and international political developments may impact economic performance, by potentially increasing the cost of doing business and impacting other cross-border flows.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Through end-June 2024, Grenada’s economy was experiencing sustained strong growth supported by buoyant tourism, moderating inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit. A surge in Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue supported a strong improvement in budget balances, a build-up of government deposits, and a reduction in public debt. On July 1, Hurricane Beryl caused damage in excess of 16 percent of GDP on the Grenadian islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, as well as in the northern parishes of the main island, affecting around 15 percent of the population. In response, the authorities triggered the suspension of fiscal rules to permit temporary deficit spending in support of the recovery and reconstruction.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Cambodia’s economy is at a crossroads. While the economic recovery continues, its pace remains uneven. The sharp slowdown in credit growth has exposed the economy to increased financial sector vulnerabilities. Policy formulation must ensure a durable and inclusive recovery in the near term and achieving development goals over the medium term. The path forward will require a refocus on more resilient and diversified growth drivers, with the graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status expected by 2030.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Gambia hosted the 15th Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in early May 2024—the second largest intergovernmental organization in the world. Economic recovery is strengthening, while inflation has trended down, albeit slowly. Despite strong revenue collection efforts, the fiscal outcome for 2024H1 was weighed down by the costs of hosting the OIC Summit and emergency support to the National Water and Electricity Corporation (NAWEC). The foreign exchange market continues to function smoothly, and foreign reserves remain at a comfortable level. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Kosovo’s 2024 Article IV Consultation and Third Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Kosovo’s economic performance has been strong, with growth accelerating in 2024 and inflation falling sharply. The near-term outlook is favorable despite some downside risks. The authorities continue to show strong performance under both programs. All quantitative targets and structural conditions for the completion of the Third Review under the SBA were met. Most RSF Reform Measures have been completed. Fiscal policy should continue to balance sustainability and development objectives and be framed within a solid, rules-based fiscal framework. The 2025 budget envisages a fiscal impulse with full-year implementation of spending measures announced in 2024, a proposed increase in public wages, and the expected improvement in public investment execution. Structural reforms are urgently needed to raise potential growth. Priority should be given to further advancing green reforms and decarbonization, implementing policies to boost female labor-force participation, attracting foreign capital—including from the diaspora—into productive sectors of the economy, and accelerating digitalization.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangement for Tanzania. Economic growth momentum is picking up in 2024 with improved external and fiscal balances, low inflation within the central bank’s target, and easing pressures in the foreign exchange market. Tanzania’s economic reform program supported by the ECF arrangement remained on track. Structural reforms are essential to promote private sector development and inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth. Business reforms should focus on removing obstacles to foreign investment, simplifying the regulatory regime, enhancing governance and regulatory transparency, and improving public policy predictability. The authorities are committed to continue implementing reforms to preserve macro-financial stability, promote sustainable and inclusive growth, advance structural reforms, and address the risks and challenges associated with climate change, supported by the ECF and RSF arrangements.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s Fourth Review Under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and Financing Assurances Review for Zambia. Program performance has remained broadly satisfactory. All June 2024 quantitative performance criteria and most indicative targets for June and September 2024 were met. Fiscal consolidation, prudent monetary policy and further reserve accumulation, exchange rate flexibility, and sound financial policies will be crucial for safeguarding macro-financial stability and building resilience against shocks. Zambia’s public debt is assessed as sustainable but remains at high risk of overall and external debt distress. Governance and structural reforms are vital for promoting private sector activity and economic diversification. The authorities remain committed to maintaining macroeconomic stability and restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, while supporting vulnerable households and advancing structural and governance reforms to foster growth. Enhancing transparency in the energy sector and resource management, strengthening anti-corruption measures, continuing agriculture reform, alongside building climate resilience, will improve the business climate and support sustainable and more inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s Third Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Requests for Extension, Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Papua New Guinea’s economic outlook remains positive, with growth expected to increase to 4.5 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025 from 2.9 percent in 2023, supported by the resumption of activities at the Porgera gold mine and improvements in access to foreign exchange. Given the country’s high vulnerability to climate change, managing its impact is critical to the success of the authorities’ poverty reduction and sustainable growth agenda. The ECF/EFF and RSF programs will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, focusing on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, fostering good governance and building climate resilience, while protecting the vulnerable and promoting inclusive and sustainable growth.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses IMF’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria for Jordan. Jordan continues to show resilience and maintain macro-economic stability, despite the headwinds caused by the regional conflict. This resilience reflects the authorities’ continued implementation of sound macro-economic policies and reform progress. Inflation is projected to remain low, at about 2 percent, reflecting the Central Bank of Jordan’s firm commitment to monetary stability and the exchange rate peg. Jordan’s external position remains relatively strong. Bringing the Jordanian economy onto a higher growth trajectory is essential to create more jobs and raise prosperity. This requires accelerating structural reforms, while maintaining macro-economic stability. Strong and timely international support also remains crucial to help Jordan navigate through the external headwinds, while shouldering the costs of hosting a large number of Syrian refugees.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This page presents Ghana’s Third Review under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Ghana’s performance under the program has been generally satisfactory, and reform efforts are paying off. Good progress has been made on debt restructuring. Growth is recovering rapidly, inflation has declined, although at a slower pace, and the fiscal and external positions have continued to improve. Steadfast implementation of the policy and reform agenda, including before and after the upcoming general elections, remains essential to fully restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. The Ghanaian authorities have continued to make remarkable headways on their public debt restructuring. After successfully restructuring domestic debt last year and reaching agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding with Ghana’s Official Creditors Committee under the G20 Common Framework in June 2024, the government has completed the exchange of its Eurobonds at conditions consistent with program parameters. The authorities have taken appropriate actions to ensure implementation of banks’ recapitalization plans and start recapitalizing state-owned banks.