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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In response to a request from the Bank of the Republic of Burundi (BRB), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) carried out a Financial Sector Stability Review (FSSR) mission from January 31 through February 13, 2024. The FSSR performed a diagnostic assessment of the financial system oversight framework, reviewed progress in implementing the technical assistance (TA) recommendations of 2019–2024, and developed a draft Technical Assistance Roadmap (TARM) to improve financial system stability by strengthening the BRB’s capacity. The mission identified three main macro-financial vulnerabilities: (i) the difficulty of assessing credit quality following the boom in lending in 2021–2022, worsened by the non-adherence to the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS9) and to the rules on credit risk from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS); (ii) the risk related to exchange rate depreciation; and (iii) the sovereign-banks nexus. Moreover, given the concentration of assets (large exposures) and liabilities (deposits), prudential rules and regulations should be more rigorously applied and such concentration should be given greater consideration in supervision and stress tests. The report recommends strengthening the BRB’s supervisory capacity before enhancing prudential regulations, and addressing systemic risks through improved stress testing and a strengthened crisis management framework. Implementing these recommendations will bolster financial stability and support economic growth.
Marie S Kim
,
Lilia Razlog
,
Juan Carlos Vilanova
, and
Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9–20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the authorities on the use of the Medium-term Debt Management Strategy Analytical tool (MTDS AT) and ABP AT. The mission presented its main findings and recommendations to the authorities and left a draft report at the end of the mission.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Political uncertainty remains high with another change of government in July 2024—the fifth since the beginning of the Fund-supported program. Substantial flooding and landslides in September 2024 further weighed on sluggish domestic demand, though conversely helping strengthen the external position and easing inflation pressures. Non-performing loans have risen, bank profitability has weakened, and the financial health of savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOs) has deteriorated. Growth is expected to pick up to 4.2 percent in FY2024/25, supported by further expansion in hydropower generation and a higher execution rate of public capital expenditure, including on post-flood reconstruction. Average inflation is expected to remain close to the authorities’ target of about 5 percent.
Divya Kirti
and
Akshat V. Singh
We study the role of life insurers in the transmission of US monetary policy. Insurers have uniquely long-term liabilities. We posit that they face a trade-off between matching liability duration exposure by investing in long-term government debt and earning higher yields by shifting to risky—but shorter-term—private debt. We show that, due to this tradeoff, long-term risk free rates play a critical role in shaping insurers' demand for risky private debt. Contractionary monetary policy shocks that raise long-term risk-free rates reduce insurers' demand for private debt, raising risk premia. We use granular, high frequency data and regulatory changes to trace how insurers' investment behavior transmits monetary policy shocks to risk premia.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided technical assistance to the Banco Cabo Verde (BCV) on reforming and operationalizing its bank resolution framework. Cabo Verde's special resolution regime (SRR) has been in place since 2014, with the BCV serving as the Resolution Authority. It has been applied once, in 2017, for a non-systemic publicly owned bank, but falls short of international best practices, with limited resolution tools and inadequate safeguards to protect creditors' rights, resulting in legal uncertainties. The IMF mission recommended several enhancements, including strengthening the conditions for entry into resolution and expanding resolution tools. The operationalization of the SRR is hindered by staffing challenges, with only one full-time staff member dedicated to the resolution function, and a lack of operational independence. The mission suggested restructuring the governance of the resolution function, separating it from the BCV’s macroprudential function and elevating its status within the BCV. Strengthening resolution planning is crucial, as current legal limitations seem to restrict the BCV's ability to prepare and execute resolution plans. The BCV should also be empowered to develop comprehensive resolution plans and crisis preparedness should also be enhanced, including by developing a resolution manual and initiating crisis simulation exercises.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
List Of IMF Member Countries With Delays In Completion Of Article IV Consultations Or Mandatory Financial Stability Assessments Over 18 Months
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s economy lost momentum in 2023. The external position weakened, with the current account shifting to a deficit and foreign reserve accumulation slowing. While inflation continued to ease, it remained elevated. Available data indicate a deterioration in the underlying fiscal positions of many countries. The near-term outlook points to stronger economic activity, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024, supported by elevated oil prices and a rebound in oil output. However, the end-June 2024 regional policy assurance on NFA––and, according to preliminary information, the end-December 2024 targets––were not met, indicating a deviation in reserves from the targeted path. Debt vulnerabilities have also worsened in some countries, as evidenced by the growing pressures in the regional government debt market. Following the strong commitment expressed at the extraordinary Heads of State Summit in December 2024 to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen regional institutions, all countries are expected to tackle fiscal slippages, restore fiscal prudence, and implement structural reforms to steer the region toward a more resilient medium-term outlook. This should help reduce risks to the capacity to repay the Fund. However, the projections remain uncertain, as the details of corrective measures and reforms are still being finalized between staff and national authorities.
Hua Chai
and
Hyeryoun Kim
The global trade landscape is being reshaped by geoeconomic fragmentation and the rise of industrial policies. This paper studies the impact of these trends on the export-oriented Korean economy. It documents both positive and negative effects of U.S.-China trade tensions, technology and supply chain restrictions, and industrial policies of major economies on Korea's trade and FDI, particularly that of its strategic sectors. To navigate the changing global trade landscape, Korea needs to focus on promoting innovation to maintain competitiveness, diversifying export destinations and supply chains, and expanding exports of services.
Oleg Churiy
and
Bernard J Laurens
At the request of the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA), an IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) visited Thimphu during August 20-29, 2024. The mission’s objectives were to assist the authorities in setting up interest rate corridor (IRC) and operationalizing the related instruments, operations, liquidity forecasting, and collateral frameworks.