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Business and Economics > Finance: General

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 1,784 items for :

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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Uzbekistan: Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy and Annual Borrowing Plan
Marie S Kim
,
Lilia Razlog
,
Juan Carlos Vilanova
, and
Juan Lorenzo Maldonado
At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9–20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the authorities on the use of the Medium-term Debt Management Strategy Analytical tool (MTDS AT) and ABP AT. The mission presented its main findings and recommendations to the authorities and left a draft report at the end of the mission.
Keywords:
Annual Borrowing Plan; Debt Management Strategy; Local Currency Government Securities; Medium-term Debt Strategy; Ministry of Economy; Finance; Technical Assistance; Uzbekistan; debt transparency; debt portfolio; CD recipient; IMF's Monetary; investor relation function; Government debt management; Securities markets; Government securities
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Political uncertainty remains high with another change of government in July 2024—the fifth since the beginning of the Fund-supported program. Substantial flooding and landslides in September 2024 further weighed on sluggish domestic demand, though conversely helping strengthen the external position and easing inflation pressures. Non-performing loans have risen, bank profitability has weakened, and the financial health of savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOs) has deteriorated. Growth is expected to pick up to 4.2 percent in FY2024/25, supported by further expansion in hydropower generation and a higher execution rate of public capital expenditure, including on post-flood reconstruction. Average inflation is expected to remain close to the authorities’ target of about 5 percent.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; issuance of the Request for Proposals; implementation of the prior action; Nepali authorities; ECF arrangement; Credit; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial statements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The CEMAC’s economy lost momentum in 2023. The external position weakened, with the current account shifting to a deficit and foreign reserve accumulation slowing. While inflation continued to ease, it remained elevated. Available data indicate a deterioration in the underlying fiscal positions of many countries. The near-term outlook points to stronger economic activity, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024, supported by elevated oil prices and a rebound in oil output. However, the end-June 2024 regional policy assurance on NFA––and, according to preliminary information, the end-December 2024 targets––were not met, indicating a deviation in reserves from the targeted path. Debt vulnerabilities have also worsened in some countries, as evidenced by the growing pressures in the regional government debt market. Following the strong commitment expressed at the extraordinary Heads of State Summit in December 2024 to address macroeconomic imbalances and strengthen regional institutions, all countries are expected to tackle fiscal slippages, restore fiscal prudence, and implement structural reforms to steer the region toward a more resilient medium-term outlook. This should help reduce risks to the capacity to repay the Fund. However, the projections remain uncertain, as the details of corrective measures and reforms are still being finalized between staff and national authorities.
Keywords:
CEMAC authorities; CEMAC country; CEMAC economy; CEMAC heads of state; policy assurance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Government securities; Fiscal stance; Global; Central Africa
Cover Global Financial Stability Notes
Pension Funds and Financial Stability
This Global Financial Stability Note examines the growth of the pension fund sector and the potential financial stability implications. Historically, pension funds have been seen as a contributor to financial stability because of their long-term and well-diversified liabilities. However, the sector has undergone significant structural shifts accelerated by a prolonged period of low interest rates, increasing its exposure to traditional risks while introducing emerging risks; this is reflected in growing intra-financial sector interconnectedness and exposure to long-term sovereign bonds. The recent transition to higher interest rates should be positive for the pension sector, albeit its pace and abruptness has been associated with liquidity stress and contagion risks in some countries.
Keywords:
Pension Funds; Financial Stability; Assets; Risks; Pension Plans; major pension fund sector; IMF Library; major pension savings market; structural liquidity; asset-liability duration mismatch; risk analysis; Pension spending; Pensions; Financial sector stability; Liquidity risk; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Korea in a Changing Global Trade Landscape: Korea
Hua Chai
and
Hyeryoun Kim
The global trade landscape is being reshaped by geoeconomic fragmentation and the rise of industrial policies. This paper studies the impact of these trends on the export-oriented Korean economy. It documents both positive and negative effects of U.S.-China trade tensions, technology and supply chain restrictions, and industrial policies of major economies on Korea's trade and FDI, particularly that of its strategic sectors. To navigate the changing global trade landscape, Korea needs to focus on promoting innovation to maintain competitiveness, diversifying export destinations and supply chains, and expanding exports of services.
Keywords:
trade policy; industrial policy; geoeconomic fragmentation; innovation; U.S.-China trade tension; Korea export share; U.S.-China trade relation; Korea's export; export destination; Exports; Trade tensions; Competition; Manufacturing; Tariffs; Global; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pension Reform and Stock Market Development
Shujaat Khan
,
Bo Li
, and
Yunhui Zhao
We highlight the strong connection between developing fully-funded, individually-owned, collectively-managed, mandatory/incentivized (FICMI) pension schemes and the development of domestic stock markets. We do so by building a stylized model and complementing the analysis with cross-country empirical analysis and case studies. We also highlight the challenges of individual impatience, network externalities, and coordination failure in long-term equity investments, which are crucial for stock market development and technological innovation. We find that FICMI pension schemes—when sufficiently wide in coverage and large in size—can serve as coordination devices to support long-term equity investments. Such investments will not only promote domestic stock market development and make it easier for firms to raise long-term equity capital, therefore supporting long-term economic growth, but also enhance financial inclusion and enable more households to benefit from the overall economic development, therefore contributing to inclusive growth. Moreover, we find that the introduction of FICMI pension schemes can impact household savings in two ways: first, FICMI pension can increase household savings through “forced/incentivized” savings channel, where households save too little without FICMI pension (such as in many EMDEs); and second, FICMI pension can decrease household savings and increase household consumption by reducing non-pension savings and decreasing precautionary savings, where households save too much without FICMI pension (such as in China). In both cases, FICMI pension schemes can help move the economy closer to the optimal level of household savings, and may also help improve the structure of such savings. Finally, we discuss the enabling conditions (such as a strong political commitment to the reform and a well-designed fiscal strategy for financing the transition) and policy design for FICMI pension schemes.
Keywords:
Pension Reforms; Stock Market Development; Equity Financing; Innovation' Financial Inclusion; Intertemporal Optimization; Public Pensions; Funded and Private Pensions; FICMI pension schemes; household saving; savings channel; IMF working paper No. 25/49; Pension spending; Pensions; Stock markets; Pension reform; Capital markets; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s cyclical recovery is underway, though it has yet to become broad-based. Growth is projected to accelerate moderately, reaching 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, supported by the rebound of tourism-related activities and fiscal stimulus. The slow recovery, weaker than in ASEAN peers, is rooted in Thailand’s longstanding structural weaknesses and emerging headwinds that also contribute to a muted inflation trajectory. Significant uncertainty in the external environment and downside risks cloud the outlook.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflationtargeting monetary policy framework; supply and use tables; monetary policy analysis; Thai baht; Trade balance; Inflation; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nicaragua: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nicaragua
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Nicaragua’s economic performance remains robust, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies and very strong remittance flows. The economy remains open and resilient, after confronting multiple large shocks, and on a backdrop of transfers of private property to the state, international sanctions, and reorientation of official financing. Going forward, domestic and international political developments may impact economic performance, by potentially increasing the cost of doing business and impacting other cross-border flows. Fiscal and current account surpluses are expected to narrow, due to authorities’ plans to increase public investment, and the increase in imports supporting the private consumption-led growth. Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced in the short-term and on the downside in the medium term. Continued prudent fiscal, monetary, and financial policies will help maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, preserve fiscal sustainability, strengthen policy buffers, and support medium-term inclusive growth. Policy coordination remains crucial, alongside key reforms, including reforming the pension system, strengthening the monetary policy transmission mechanism, enhancing financial deepening, and supporting human and physical capital accumulation.
Keywords:
update safeguard assessment; transmission mechanism; Policy coordination; safeguards recommendation; tax audit procedure; exports threshold; authority of the BCN; headline inflation; Public sector; Financial sector stability; Global; Central America; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Chile discusses that the economy is broadly balanced but external risks are elevated. Chile’s macroeconomic position is sound due to its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. Lifting Chile’s growth potential is a must to raise living standards and tackle social and fiscal pressures. The goal of a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2027 remains appropriate but has become more challenging. Continuous enhancements to Chile’s already very strong fiscal framework would foster fiscal policy formulation and transparency. A pension reform is essential to ensure adequate pensions and address the fiscal costs of population aging. Raising contribution rates and the number of contribution periods is vital for sustainably self-financing old-age pensions. The minimum guaranteed pension has strengthened the system’s solidarity, increased replacement ratios, and reduced old-age poverty, but it also incurs high fiscal costs. The financial system remains resilient despite rising vulnerabilities related to the real estate sector and lower financial market depth.
Keywords:
pension reform bill; draft bill; FSAP mission; liquidity risk supervision; interest rate risk supervision; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Labor markets; Global; South America