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Business and Economics > Finance: General

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Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Implement Strategic Foresight (and Why)
Mr. Alberto Behar
and
Sandile Hlatshwayo
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.
Keywords:
risk-preparedness framework; Policy game; data IMF Library; guidance note; scenario planning; Futures; Stress testing; Emerging and frontier financial markets; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Assess Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises: Benchmarking and Stress Testing
Ms. Anja Baum
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Alberto Soler
, and
Mouhamadou Sy
The size and operation of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can imply significant risks for governments. SOEs are present in virtually every country in the world and are major players in domestic economies and in global markets. In some countries, they number in the thousands and are owned by national or subnational governments. SOEs are among the largest corporations in some advanced economies and comprise a third or more of the largest firms in several emerging markets. Many operate with systematic losses and carry significant liabilities. If SOEs face adverse shocks and financial distress they can impact the government budget or balance sheet through numerous transmission channels. This How to Note describes a newly developed SOE risk assessment tool to help country authorities and IMF country teams. The analysis can provide inputs for annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning. This includes providing estimates of possible transfers to and from SOEs to the budget and possible financing needs. The note outlines the main steps and elements of the template to assess fiscal risks for governments from individual SOEs. The first step is to collect financial information on SOEs and their relation to the government budget, and to provide a benchmark against other SOEs in similar sectors. A second step is to do a forward-looking analysis based on baseline forecasts and stress scenarios, to identify and analyze possible risks and their impact on government accounts.
Keywords:
Fiscal Affairs Department staff; stress scenario; operating cash flow; current liabilities; performance indictor; SOE financials; Public enterprises; Fiscal risks; Currencies; Financial statements; Stress testing; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Assess the Benefits of Nonperforming Loan Disposal in Sub-Saharan Africa Using a Simple Analytical Framework
Irina Bunda
,
Luc Eyraud
, and
Zhangrui Wang
The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.
Keywords:
Nonperforming loan disposal; Excel template; disposal strategy; raise capital requirement; loan portfolio; management cost; Nonperforming loans; Loans; Distressed assets; Financial statements; Collateral; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Develop A Framework for the Investment of Temporary Government Cash Surpluses
Israel Fainboim Yaker
,
Mr. Sandeep Saxena
, and
Michael J. Williams
Well-developed cash management aims to improve government operational efficiency and facilitates better service delivery by ensuring liquidity to meet payment obligations as they fall due. Liquidity, however, comes at a cost. Governments can reduce the cost of maintaining liquidity by proactively managing their cash balance at an appropriate level and prudently investing any excess liquidity. This note discusses the policy framework and processes that governments should put in place to identify, guide, and govern the investment of their surplus cash resources.
Keywords:
FADHTN; HTN; cash manager; surplus cash; cash surplus; cash balance; reverse repo; liquidity risk; cash buffer; market risk; debt management; market liquidity; Currencies; Government cash management; Government cash forecasting; Money markets; Credit risk; Global; Africa
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Organize Central Securities Depositories in Developing Markets: Key Considerations
Ms. Froukelien Wendt
,
Peter Katz
, and
Alice Zanza
The key objective of this note is to support authorities in their decision making about the optimal organization of central securities depositories (CSDs) in their country. For the purpose of this note, a CSD is defined as an entity that provides securities accounts, a securities settlement system, and central safekeeping services to market participants, which can be banks and other financial institutions. Authorities in developing markets, in particular central banks, may grapple with two questions: (1) whether to pursue a single CSD to increase market efficiencies and benefit from economies of scale and scope and (2) whether to partake in the governance of the CSD as owner or operator. This note presents seven considerations for authorities to take into account when answering these questions and determining the best model for their country.
Keywords:
FADHTN; HTN; financial market; private sector; single CSD; CSD operation; debt management; cash settlement; CSD operator; ownership structure; fixed cost; BNR authorities; Philippines government; authorization of the CSD; authorities in the Kyrgyz Republic; CSD technology; Central securities depositories; Securities; Government securities; Securities markets; Stock markets; Global; Europe; government securities market; Organize Central Securities depository; ConsiderationsHow-To note; develop market; key ConsiderationsHow-To note; key consideration; Asia and Pacific