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Business and Economics > Investments: Commodities

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Rice Production in Madagascar: Challenges to Self-Sufficiency
VAISHALI ASHTAKALA
,
Joanne Tan
,
Timila Dhakhwa
, and
Yipei Zhang
The Malagasy government aims for self-sufficiency in rice production by 2027, targeting 6 million tons in 2024 and 11 million tons by 2030. Despite recent production increases, challenges such as competition from cheaper imports, low productivity, and climate change persist. This paper analyzes the impact of import competition on local markets, utilizing historical data on tariffs and VAT. It assesses potential rice output under various scenarios and discusses strategies for enhancing productivity sustainably. Findings indicate significant room for improvement in rice yields, highlighting the need for targeted supply-side policies to bolster local production without adversely affecting prices.
Keywords:
Rice production; hybrid seeds; agriculture productivity; food security; rice yield; rice cultivation; countries yield; rice demand and supply; self-sufficiency Republic of Madagascar; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural prices; VAT exemptions; Climate change; Natural disasters; Global; East Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores the electricity sector and Jiro sy rano Malagasy (JIRAMA) in Republic of Madagascar. JIRAMA’s production is relatively inefficient as the company produces less than what is generally acceptable, and at a higher cost. Electricity is the second biggest constraint to competitiveness reported by businesses in Madagascar, based on the Enterprise Survey conducted by the World Bank. A recovery plan is currently under preparation by the new JIRAMA management. While a first objective is for JIRAMA to reach financial sustainability and no longer be dependent on government transfers, other important objectives relate to electricity access and a shift of the production mix toward more renewables. The expansion of production capacity should take place through an increase in renewable energy to reach 85 percent of the production mix. Tariffs should be in line with recovery costs, including operational, distribution, commercialization, and investment costs. A first-best approach is to have one single household tariff and compensate most vulnerable households with targeted transfers.
Keywords:
rice production; teacher training; FRAM teacher; Education sector; rice yield in Madagascar; Agricultural commodities; Electricity; Labor force participation; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shocks and Shields: Macroeconomic Institutions During Commodity Price Swings
Rabah Arezki
,
Patrick A. Imam
, and
Kangni R Kpodar
Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating “macroeconomic prudence”. These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices on macroeconomic institutions is influenced by the intensity of shocks and income levels of the countries, with higher-income countries driving the main results. These findings remain robust across various checks, including different estimators and additional control and dependent variables. These findings suggest that macroeconomic institutions are reactive to terms of trade shocks stemming from commodity price fluctuations.
Keywords:
Commodity prices; macroeconomic institutions; natural resources; resource curse; price shock; commodity export; commodity terms of trade shock; impact of commodity; commodity export windfall; Commodity price shocks; Fiscal rules; Export prices; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Impact of Droughts in Uruguay: A General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Soil Moisture Deficit Index
Jean François Clevy
and
Christopher Evans
Uruguay recently confronted the impact of a once-in-a-century severe drought, which affected key agricultural areas, and caused significant direct losses to the agricultural sector, especially for soybean production and cattle farming - important exports in Uruguay's trade matrix. From October 2022 to April 2023, rainfall was about 47 percent below historical averages, contributing to a decline in agricultural output and impacting overall GDP growth. The frequency of recent climate shocks witnessed in Uruguay combined with its rich climate data make it the ideal candidate to understand if weather shocks matter and through which transmission mechanisms. Using the empirical and theoretical framework outlined in Gallic and Vermandel (2020) we document that weather shocks play an important role in business cycle dynamics in Uruguay.
Keywords:
Weather shocks; Business cycles; Uruguay; soil moisture deficit index; General equilibrium analysis; weather shock; impact of drought; standard deviation; Agricultural sector; Natural disasters; Agricultural production; Agricultural commodities; Global
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Kiribati: Agricultural Subsidies for Copra: Improving Efficiency and Equity and Balancing Trade-offs
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance mission assessed Kiribati’s agricultural output price scheme that subsidizes the production of copra (dried coconut). The mission estimates that subsidies in 2023 amounted to 7.8 percent of GDP. The scheme’s technical and allocative inefficiencies, incidence in rural areas, and high fiscal cost, could be mitigated in the short- and medium term, by scaling back the subsidies, replacing them in part with cash transfers and public goods provision in the outer islands, securing fiscal savings in the process, and introducing competitive elements in the copra value chain.
Keywords:
Kiribati; subsidy; agriculture; efficiency; equity; expenditure; IMF activity; subsidy scheme; copra value chain; value chain concern; farmgate price; public goods provision; Government subsidies; Export prices; Agricultural sector; Consumption
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Shocks Unfolding: Lessons from Fragile and Conflict-affected States
Jocelyn Boussard
,
Chiara Castrovillari
,
Tomohide Mineyama
,
Marta Spinella
, and
Maxwell Tuuli
This paper investigates the consequences of global shocks on a sample of low- and lower-middle-income countries with a particular focus on fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS). FCS are a group of countries that display institutional weakness and/or are negatively affected by active conflict, thereby facing challenges in macroeconomic policy management. Examining different global shocks associated with commodity prices, external demand, and financing conditions, this paper establishes that FCS economies are more vulnerable to these shocks compared to non-FCS peers. The higher sensitivity of FCS economies is mainly driven by procyclical fiscal responses, aggravated by the lack of effective spending controls and timely access to financial sources. External financing serves as a source of stability, partially mitigating the adverse impact of global shocks. This paper contributes to a better understanding of how conditions of fragility, which are on the rise in many parts of the world today, can amplify the effects of negative exogenous shocks. Its results highlight the diverse nature of underlying sources of vulnerabilities, spanning from fiscal and external buffers to institutional quality and economic structure, with lessons applicable to a broader set of countries. Efficient and timely external financial support from external partners, including international financial institutions, should help countries’ counter-cyclical responses to mitigate adverse shocks and achieve macroeconomic stability.
Keywords:
Global shocks; external financing; low-income countries; Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS); FCS economy; Commodity tot shock; FCS list; shock variable; decline shock; Technology transfer; Exports; Commodity prices; Commodity price fluctuations; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on National Accounts Mission (July 24–August 4, 2023)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance mission assisted the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in conducting a major revision of national accounts time series. Based on the results of the 2023 survey on non-observed economy (NOE) in hotels, restaurants, and other services, the 2024 major revision increases the nominal GDP for 2017–2023 in the range of 10–12 percent. The mission reviewed the results of the 2024 major revision and provided recommendations for improvement before their publication. These improvements to data and methods will improve the understanding of the Uzbekistan economy, both for domestic policymaking and international surveillance.
Keywords:
National accounts; GDP; major revision; non-observed economy.; World Bank staff; TA recipient; steering committee of CCAMTAC; SUT data; SA staff; Consumption; Agricultural commodities; Household consumption; Economic classification
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Mobile Technologies Enhance Productivity? A Structural Model and Evidence from Benin Food Suppliers
Pierre Nguimkeu
and
Cedric I Okou
This paper analyzes the drivers of digital technologies adoption and how it affects the productivity of small scale businesses in Africa. We use data collected from two semi-rural markets in Benin, where grains and legumes are key staple foods and one-third of the population has internet access. We develop a structural model to rationalize digital technologies adoption—defined as the use of mobile broadband internet connection through smartphones—as well as usage patterns and outcomes observed in the data. The model’s implications are empirically tested using both reduced-form and structural maximum likelihood estimations. We find that younger, wealthier, more educated grains and legumes suppliers and those closely surrounded by other users are more likely to adopt digital technologies. Adopters perform 4-5 more business transactions each month than non-adopters on average, suggesting that digital technologies adoption could raise the monthly frequency and amounts of trades by up to 50%. Most adopters are women, but their productivity gains are lower than their male counterparts. Counterfactual policy simulations with the estimated model suggest that upgrading the broadband internet quality yields the largest improvement in adoption rate and productivity gains, while reducing its cost for a given connection quality only has a moderate effect. Improving access to credit only increases the adoption rate of constrained suppliers.
Keywords:
Digital Technology Adoption; Food Supply; Counterfactual Analysis; productivity gain; legumes supplier; adoption rate; broadband internet quality; Productivity; Agricultural commodities; Financial inclusion; Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Climate Change in the WAEMU: Trends, Macro-criticality and Options Going Forward
Can Sever
This paper focuses on the trends in climate change in the WAEMU, assesses the criticality of climate change for the region, and reviews the related policy and financing options going forward. Climate change has been increasingly affecting the lives and livelihoods in the WAEMU. Temperatures have risen significantly, and climate-related disasters have hit the region more frequently in recent decades. Climate change can exacerbate the current challenges and hinder long-term economic prospects by threatening economic growth, food security, fiscal and external sustainability, and social outcomes in the region. Macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and cooperation among different parties remain critical alongside regional efforts, in particular to have access to necessary financing and bolster adaptation efforts.
Keywords:
WAEMU; climate change; climate-related disasters; climate adaptation; climate finance; financing option; climate change in the WAEMU; A. climate trend; C. climate adaption; WAEMU population; Agricultural commodities; Food security; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global