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Business and Economics > Budgeting

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Kazakhstan focuses on revisiting trend output growth. Trend growth in Kazakhstan has decreased to 2–3 percent due to declining contributions of labor and total factor productivity (TFP). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have reduced the long-term trend GDP level, but it is unlikely to have affected trend GDP growth. Structural reforms to reduce the state footprint in the economy, strengthen public and corporate governance, diversify the economy and exports away from extractive sectors, and promote technological change, are critical to increase future trend GDP growth. The monthly trend-cycle decomposition developed in this Selected Issues Paper may help expand the information set available to policymakers when taking base rate policy decisions. COVID-19 has depressed both trend level and growth in the short term through headwinds to labor, capital, and TFP. It could also affect long-term trend growth through the destruction of human capital, but it is too early to assess the statistical significance of this effect. In any case, structural reforms will be needed to increase trend growth. Priorities include reducing the state footprint, strengthening public and corporate governance, and economic and trade diversification. Increasing the share of investment, including foreign direct investment in nonextractive industries should promote R&D, innovation, and higher TFP.
Keywords:
partner diversification; trend growth; governance vulnerability; trend output growth; CIS economy; Total factor productivity; Business cycles; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Global; Europe; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
partner diversification; trend growth; governance vulnerability; trend output growth; CIS economy; Total factor productivity; Business cycles; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Global; Europe; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Philippines
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The economy is recovering after a major, pandemic-induced economic downturn. The authorities have deployed a comprehensive set of policy responses that have helped to mitigate the socioeconomic impact and maintain financial stability. The economic recovery slowed in the first half of 2021 due to a second wave of COVID-19 infections. Vaccination has started and is poised to accelerate from midyear.
Keywords:
money market rate; government transaction; financial asset; headline inflation; CPI data; IMF capacity development assistance; inflation outlook; FSI website; COVID-19; Economic recovery; Fiscal stimulus; Liquidity requirements; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper evaluates Australia’s experience with its principles-based fiscal framework. A key contribution of the paper is an evaluation of whether the medium-term budget balance anchor remains suitable in the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) economic environment. This paper analyzes the medium-term fiscal strategy (MTFS) in the context of the principles underlying the fiscal framework and offers suggestions for reinforcement. Comparing the alternative and current fiscal policy toolkits under a downside scenario demonstrates possible improvements to fiscal outcomes. The evaluation outlines that the operational principles of the MTFS have been consistent with the broad principles for sound fiscal policy laid out in the Charter, although implementation has involved difficult trade-offs. Options to deal with the treatment of debt, its accountability framework and its fiscal policy toolkit should help strengthen the statement and implementation of Australia’s fiscal strategy and reinforce its fiscal framework in the current and prospective economic environment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; country; Australia; State priority; share of the economy; New Zealand government; State budget; net assets position; government size; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal governance; Business cycles; Personal income tax; Global
Cover International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2018
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2018
Building a Shared Future
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The past year was one of growing economic anxiety tied to skepticism about both economic integration and an international approach to economic policy making. To help make globalization work for all, the IMF focused on providing policy advice in many macro-critical areas.

Keywords:
AR; AREA; country; IMF paper; IMF staff calculation; IMF staff; member country; IMF research; IMF quota resource; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; Fiscal risks; Inclusive growth; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Caribbean; demanded IMF course offering; External audit; Income inequality
Cover IMF Working Papers
Australia’s Fiscal Framework: Revisiting Options for a Fiscal Anchor
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Philippe D Karam
,
Mr. Dirk V Muir
, and
Siegfried Steinlein
This paper revisits options for fiscal anchors in Australia against the backdrop of a medium-term budget balance anchor that has led to larger than expected upward drift in the net debt to GDP ratio since the end of the mining investment boom. The IMF’s G20MOD model is used to compare the budget balance anchor with a long-term debt anchor. Using model simulations evaluated against objective macro stabilization-debt control criteria under three likely scenarios for the Australian economy, the latter is found to perform at least as well as the former. The paper also considers the operationalization of a long-term debt anchor utilizing a combination of fiscal rules which includes expenditure restrictions and a flexible time horizon for convergence, aiming at encouraging countercyclical fiscal policy and minimizing the cost in terms of real GDP foregone in the medium term under fiscal consolidation.
Keywords:
WP; government; long-term debt; net; debt; Fiscal policy; fiscal rules; general equilibrium models; taxation; commonwealth government; budget constraint; debt target; territory treasury; government's goal; government budget constraint; deficit target; government dissaving; government face; long-term government debt target; debt ratio; Budget planning and preparation; Business cycles; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for a New Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for a new Three-Year ECF Arrangement. Economic activity in Burkina Faso continued to grow at a brisk pace in 2013. Program performance remains strong. Revenue performance remains on target, but is no longer overshooting targets as in recent years, while spending execution is below target. Almost all program targets were met, including on net domestic financing and the fiscal balance. All structural benchmarks slated for completion in June and September were also met. The IMF staff supports completion of the seventh review of the current ECF arrangement and the authorities’ request for a new three-year ECF arrangement with access equivalent to 45 percent of quota.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; proceeds; gold export proceeds; AFW mission; revenue mobilization effort; Burkina Faso's authorities; Extended Credit Facility arrangement; exchange arrangement; Mining sector; Natural resources; Inclusive growth; West Africa; Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Performance Index (EPI): an Intuitive Indicator for Assessing a Country's Economic Performance Dynamics in an Historical Perspective
Mr. Vadim Khramov
and
Mr. John Ridings Lee
Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; economic index; EPI score; economic system; Indicator; Economic Performance; Raw EPI; EPI indicator; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; Unemployment rate; Economic recession; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Hungary: Stand-By Arrangement: Interim Review Under the Emergency Financing Mechanism
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on the Stand-By Arrangement for Hungary under the Emergency Financing Mechanism. Economic indicators confirm that the downturn envisaged in the program is already under way. The new bank support law is important, as it provides Hungarian banks with access to capital enhancement and borrowing guarantee facilities. The gradual reductions in the policy interest rate have been appropriate. Looking ahead, continued implementation of policies in line with the program is essential to maintain investor confidence and minimize the depth of the economic downturn.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; market; bond yield; exchange regime; rate; government bond bond yield; support package; A. financial markets; depreciation in October; financial market development; support law; home market; exchange rate depreciation; evolution of the markets' risk assessment; evolution of the markets' risk assessment of Hungary; Budget planning and preparation; Sovereign bonds; Exchange rates; Economic recession; Bond yields; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: Staff Report for the 2003 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
The economic downturns and an ongoing industrial restructuring toward capital-intensive sectors, such as chemical and pharmaceuticals, have contributed to rising unemployment. With the economic recovery continuing to gain momentum, the near-term outlook has improved. With broad agreement on the assessment of the economic outlook, the discussions focused on the appropriate policy stance and on structural reforms needed to raise Singapore’s medium-term growth potential. The authorities are encouraged to develop and publish fiscal accounts, and to provide more information on the government’s investment income.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; outturn; tax rate; economy; balance; Singapore; central government budget; personal income tax rate; tax exemption; GDP outturn; monetary policy stance; economy well; Economic recession; Exports; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Imports; Global